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CIRCE IP and few research needs on GW ecology and CC

Working Group C Groundwater 2010–2012 17° Plenary Meeting. CIRCE IP and few research needs on GW ecology and CC. Michele Vurro Water Research Institute, National Research Council, IRSA-CNR, Italy Via F. De Blasio, 5 – 70123 Bari (michele.vurro@ba.irsa.cnr.it) Stockholm, October 15th, 2009.

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CIRCE IP and few research needs on GW ecology and CC

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  1. Working Group C Groundwater 2010–2012 17° Plenary Meeting CIRCE IP andfew research needs on GW ecologyand CC Michele VurroWater Research Institute, National Research Council, IRSA-CNR, Italy Via F. De Blasio, 5 – 70123 Bari (michele.vurro@ba.irsa.cnr.it) Stockholm, October 15th, 2009 Water Research Institute National Research Council

  2. Water Research Institute, National Research Council www.irsa.cnr.it CIRCE started from… What would we expect from climate change in water-stressed regions? • CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area. The project will investigate how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how properties of the atmosphere, the radiactive fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle and implications on social and economic sectors. IPCC 4AR • Many semi-arid and arid areas (e.g., the Mediterranean basin, western USA, southern Africa and north-eastern Brazil) are particularly exposed to the impacts of climate change and are projected (with high confidence) to suffer a decrease of water resources due to climate change. • There is an urgent need to understand and quantify the impact of projected climate change on hydrological processes including vegetation and crops (feedbacks). • Linkages between models for climate change and hydrological processes is crude, with models’ scales not relevant for decision making. Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  3. Water Research Institute, National Research Council www.irsa.cnr.it Climate Change Impact Research:Water-related issues after Milly et al., 2005. Nature, 438(7066), 347–350[in IPCC 4AR] Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  4. Water Research Institute, National Research Council www.irsa.cnr.it PDSI centennial global trend after Dai et al., 2004. [in IPCC 4AR] Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  5. RL 0 - Coordination and Communication RL 2 - The Mediterranean Region and the Global Climate System RL 6 – Extreme Events RL 7 - Impacts of Global Change on Ecosystems and the services they provide Water Research Institute, National Research Council www.irsa.cnr.it RL 3 – Radiation, clouds, aerosol and climate change RL 1 RL 1 RL 8 - Air Quality and Climate Identification and RL 4 – Scale Interactions and Feedback processes RL 9 - Human Health attribution of present climate trends RL 10 - Economic Impacts of Climate Change RL 5 - Water Cycle RL 11 Integrating Case Studies RL 12 RL13 Induced Responses and Policies Objective: “Quantify the past variations and future projectionsin the water cycle in the Mediterranean Environment under global climate changes system.” RL 5 Water Cycle Relevant Societal Dynamics Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  6. RL 5 Water Cycle WP2) Variations in the precipitation component of the water cycle WP1)Analysis of changes in Atmospheric water budget WP3) Variations in the terrestrial component of water cycle WP4) Changes in Mediterranean Sea water cycle and implications for water mass characteristics

  7. Water Research Institute, National Research Council www.irsa.cnr.it RACCM (RegionalAssessment of Climate Change in Mediterranean Area) • PART 1 : AIR, SEA AND PRECIPITATION: Past, Current and Future on Ocean, on Atmosphere, on Extremes and on Uncertainty; Mechanisms of climate variability in the Mediterranean Region • PART 2 : WATER: The hydrologic cycle: different components and interactions; Impacts of climate change on surface water, on ground water and coastal aquifer and on water quality. • PART 3 : AGRICULTURE, FORESTS AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES: Climate change impacts on typical Mediterranean crops, forests and forest products, livestock population and productivity and evaluation of adaptation strategies to cope with. Vulnerability assessment of ecosystem services in the Mediterranean region, • PART 4 : PEOPLE: Water for people, Health, The general equilibrium approach, Policy innovation, Future visions of society in the Mediterranean • PART 5 : CASE STUDIES • Coastal Case Studies: Gulf of Valencia (Spain), Gulf of Oran (Algeria), Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia), Western Nile Delta (Egypt) • Rural Case Studies: Tuscany Region (Italy), Puglia Region (Italy), Judean Foothills (Israel), Tel Hadya (Syria). • Urban Case Studies: Alexandria (Egypt), Athens (Greece), Beirut (Lebanon), Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  8. Water Research Institute, National Research Council www.irsa.cnr.it Springs • Area of interest : it is located in Campania, a region of Southern Italy, in which there are not many studies about the relationship between climate change and water supply • Springs of interest : our studies are based on two main springs of the area,which are capped by Apulian aqueduct • Caposele Sanità • Cassano Irpino Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  9. Geological Characterization Substantial preponderance of • Calcareous soil (Cretaceus) with smaller areas especially of • Arenaceus soil (Oligocene – Miocene ) Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  10. Hydrological Characterization Hydrological basins of Cassano Irpino and Caposele Springs. • Into these limits there are 5 meteo climatic stations: • M1 = Caposele • M2 = Acerno • M3 = P.no Laceno • M4 = Serrapullo • M5 = Cassano Irpino • and 6 hydrometric station: • I1 = Acqua delle Brecce • I2 = Fiume Sele • I3 = V.ne dell’acero • I4 = V.ne Iannarulo • I5 = Sorgente Bagno • I6 = Vallone Pinzarino Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  11. Datasets and references Previous studies of scientific literature, Influence of C.C. and water supply in the area of our interest. • In addition, we will develop successive statistical analysis using the following datasets: • historical daily series of rainfall from 1920 to 1999 (SIMN Naples); • historical (ten day) series of flow rate from 1965 to 2006 for Cassano Irpino Springs and from 1920 to 2006 for Caposele Springs. Annual Mean Rainfall, and Annual mean flow rate, for Cassano Irpino Springs Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  12. Water Research Institute, National Research Council www.irsa.cnr.it Case study application:Methods and dataset • Basin-scale testing of daily precipitation vs. 12 continuous precipitation records for 1961-1990 • Spatial averaging of point values over RCM grid-cells Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  13. Physical D. (dynamic D.) • RCM run with boundary c. from GCM. • Empirical D. • Transfer functions • Weather-typing • Stochastic Weather Generators Models calibrated on observed properties from real observations Model parameters can de derived from GCM’s output Suitable for cascade application of impact models for hydrology, ecology, agricultural projections Often used in combination with transfer functions for the spatial downscaling Water Research Institute, National Research Council www.irsa.cnr.it Impacts on Ground Water Balance Regimes SPACE-TIME DOWNSCALING METHODS Development of a downscaling approach based on a Poissonian scheme of the rainfall process Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  14. Water Research Institute, National Research Council www.irsa.cnr.it Case study application: Quantile mapping and CDF anamorphosis for quantitative bias correction R*(d) = f (R (d) |O) S*(d) = f (S (d) |O) f(x(d) |O) correction function to be adopted in the SD of the scenario variable (Déqué, 2007) Q-Q fit f (x) Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  15. Water Research Institute, National Research Council www.irsa.cnr.it • Rainfall reductions will during fall and winter months. • During spring and summer period, rainfall reductions produce a prolonged water deficit period for soil, and consequently reduction of tha amount of groundwater recharge. • The variability (standard deviation computed using observations and scenario data) of monthly rainfall shows high increase during late fall months. Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  16. Evaluation of the impact on the spring regime. Impact =Out (S) – Out (R) The flowrate trends beetween XX e XXI cen. are similar. Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  17. This feature is highlighted comparing annual trends of mean observed and simulated effective precipitations and flow rates. The gap between observations and projections is about 30% for flow rate and 50% for effective precipitation. Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  18. WP5.1 Atmospheric Water Budget WP5.2 Precipitation Component of Water Cycle WP5.3 Terrestrial Component of Water Cycle WP5.4 Mediterranean Sea Water Cycle WP5.4 Expectations WP5.3 1) Integrate overlapping research questions having bordering scales of investigation and modeling. 2) Bridge scale gaps by completing the CC scenarios with information on fundamental climatological variables (local downscaling). 3) Sketch possible futures of fresh water resources in the Mediterranean by way of credible representation of processes at a problem-solving scale. WP5.3 WP5.1 WP5.2 Impacts on Water What are our expectations from CIRCE This is a crucial field for the improvement of CC impact assessment in Mediterranean water cycle. …Water managers’ perception is that “the future is no longer as it used to be”.

  19. Water Research Institute, National Research Council www.irsa.cnr.it Some features for future researches.. sentences from official documents.. • The knowledge of current recharge and levels in both developed and developing countries is poor • Increased precipitation variability may decrease groundwater recharge in humid areas because more frequent heavy precipitation events may result in the infiltration capacity of the soil being exceeded more often. • In semi-arid and arid areas, however, increased precipitation variability may increase groundwater recharge, because only high-intensity rainfalls are able to infiltrate fast enough if there are a lot of macro pores… before evaporating. • Efforts to offset declining surface water availability due to increasing precipitation variability will be hampered by the fact that groundwater recharge is projected to decrease considerably in some water-stressed regions, exacerbated by the increased water demand • Groundwater would also be under pressure due to climate change, especially due to sea-level rise, shrinking land ice and permafrost areas, declining groundwater recharge. • Groundwater recharge is likely to be reduced in central and eastern Europe (Eitzinger et al., 2003), with a larger reduction in valleys (Krüger et al., 2002) and lowlands, e.g., in the Hungarian steppes: (Somlyódy, 2002). Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  20. Water Research Institute, National Research Council www.irsa.cnr.it sentences from official documents.. and for adaptation and vulnerability.. • Climate change will pose two major water management challenges in Europe: increasing water stress mainly in southeastern Europe, and increasing risk of floods throughout most of the continent. • Adaptation procedures and risk management practices for the water sector are being developed in some countries and regions (e.g., the Netherlands, the UK and Germany) that recognise the uncertainty of projected hydrological changes. Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  21. Water Research Institute, National Research Council www.irsa.cnr.it Some features for future researches.. • Reduce the uncertainty using a range of climate projections including a variety of climate models • Evaluate groundwater recharge • Target monitoring, as quantitative as qualitative • Create an integrated quantitative risk and vulnerability assessment tool • Adaptation options which are robust against a range of future changes Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  22. Water Research Institute, National Research Council www.irsa.cnr.it The Chloride Mass-Balance (CMB) Method • Chloride ion is relatively stable and, usually, it is not affected by chemical reactions during the infiltration process. The method is based on the following assumption: • precipitation and dry-atmospheric deposition are the only sources of chloride in groundwater and in surface-water runoff. • Human sources (septic systems, animal sources) and natural sources (evaporite rocks, connate seawater) contribute minimal amounts of chloride to the water. • As water percolates downward, the concentration of chloride in soil water increases with depth, but little or no chloride is lost by these processes. • At greater depths, where no evapotranspiration occurs, the chloride concentration should be uniform if climate, soil, and other conditions near the surface have been steady for a sufficiently long time. Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  23. Water Research Institute, National Research Council www.irsa.cnr.it The role of storage: Water Scarcity Situation Climate change could affect ground-water sustainability in several ways, including 1) changes in ground-water recharge resulting from changes in average precipitation and temperature or in the seasonal distribution of precipitation, 2) more severe and longer lasting droughts, 3) changes in evapotranspiration resulting from changes in vegetation, and 4) possible increased demands for ground water as a backup source of water supply. The future climate may therefore have impacts on the hydrological regimes of groundwater storage-discharge dynamics which are difficult to predict. Much more difficult will be the development of adaptation strategies to face such impacts in a world that is used to relay on groundwater a steady-state water resource. As increasing attention is placed on the interactions of ground water with land and surface-water resources: a) decreased baseflow components; b) increased unsaturated zone capacity. Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  24. Water Research Institute, National Research Council www.irsa.cnr.it The role of storage:Research Needs • Large scale: • improving climate scenarios to be adopted in impact studies (dynamical/statistical downscaling), • availability of global hydrological database for groundwater storage • monitoring of water fluxes and storage states • improving groundwater representation in atmospheric simulation models (GCM/RCM) • improving global scale hydrological modelling with realistic parameterization of storage-discharge processes • … • Basin scale: • groundwater-surface water interaction in water balance models • groundwater-residence-time characterization • monitoring groundwater use with indirect measurements • … • Site scale: • Groundwater flow characterization • … Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  25. Water Research Institute, National Research Council www.irsa.cnr.it CCand GW:Conflicts analysis The difficulties in monitoring the state of the groundwater results in an increasing perception of these resources as of unlimited availability. Two negative impacts on the effectiveness of groundwater protection strategies: 1.The decision makers to act on the resources without taking into account the needs and concerns of other actors. 2. The strategies to protect the resources not acceptable by the end users (mainly farmers), particularly if the strategies aim to reduce the groundwater withdrawal. A reduction of the effectiveness of groundwater management strategies with negative impacts on the state of the resources. These impacts have to be added to those due to the climate changes.. Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  26. Water Research Institute, National Research Council www.irsa.cnr.it CC and GW: Conflict analysisResearch Needs Innovative research efforts are required to investigate the relationships existing between the three main elements of this topic: • the effect of climate change on the resource • the state of the groundwater resources • the degree of conflicts between the different actors, • the effectiveness of groundwater management strategies. Stockholm, October 15th, 2009

  27. First Geophysical Observatory in the Puglia Region (XIII Century) Thank you for your attention… … From here we’ll try to help water managers in solving their problems ….

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