C Red

1. Energy Futures Hard Choices Ahead 11th October 2005 CRed carbon reduction • Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE • Energy Science Director: Low Carbon InnovationCentre • School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia

2. Hard Choice Ahead • Evidence of Climate Change • Energy Options for the Future • Hard Choices Ahead • Future carbon dioxide emissions • Some conservation issues • A way forward • Conclusions

3. Future Global Warming Rates

4. 2003 1979 Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 • Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region • Nasa satellite imagery • 20% reduction in 24 years Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

5. Difficult Choices Ahead 2003 2004 2005 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from Energy Review 2002

6. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

7. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable • Transport Fuels: • Biodiesel? • Bioethanol?

8. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

9. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

10. Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power • Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

11. Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS • imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendantSecurity issues that raises.

12. Historic and Future Demand for Electricity Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static

13. Electricity Options for the Future • Low Growth Scenario • Capped at 420 TWh • 33% CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990 • 62% CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990 • 68 % increase in gas consumption • ( Gas Scenario) cf 2002 • Mix option: 6 new nuclear plant by 2025 • Mix option: 11% increase in gas • consumption (cf 2002) • High Growth Scenario • Business as Usual • 0.3 % CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990 • 54% CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990 • 257% increase in gas consumption • ( Gas Scenario) cf 2002 • 25% Renewables by 2025 • 20000 MW Wind • 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.

14. Government Response • Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050 • Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s • (– but no indication of how this will be undertaken) “There will be much more localgeneration, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generatedwaste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’ - Energy White Paper: February 2003

15. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

16. Some facts: • A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging • up to 20 kg CO2 a year • Standby on television > 60 kg per year • Filling up with petrol (~40 litres ~£37 for a full tank) • --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one balloon) • How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for1 hour? • 1.6 miles

17. Involve the local Community • Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine. • On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity

18. Conclusions • Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades • Need to move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. • Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years. • Otherwise Nuclear? Can we avoid new Nuclear? • Yes: • but only if expansion of Renewables is at a greater rate than even Government Targets • and everyone embraces Energy Conservation • Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us. • Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.

19. Conclusions Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." LaoTzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher