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TURBINE EVALUATION BASED ON IRR CALCULATION FOR WINDFARM DEVELOPMENT & IMPORTANCE OF MICROSITING

TURBINE EVALUATION BASED ON IRR CALCULATION FOR WINDFARM DEVELOPMENT & IMPORTANCE OF MICROSITING . Presented by Dr. Rüçhan Hamamcı, Civ. Eng., Eksim Yatırım Holding A.Ş. Coordinator for Wind & Hydro ICCI 2010, Istanbul. General Info About Micrositings

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TURBINE EVALUATION BASED ON IRR CALCULATION FOR WINDFARM DEVELOPMENT & IMPORTANCE OF MICROSITING

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  1. TURBINE EVALUATION BASED ON IRR CALCULATION FOR WINDFARM DEVELOPMENT & IMPORTANCE OF MICROSITING Presented by Dr. Rüçhan Hamamcı, Civ. Eng., Eksim Yatırım Holding A.Ş. Coordinator for Wind & Hydro ICCI 2010, Istanbul

  2. General InfoAboutMicrositings • Mean Wind Speed vs. NCF (P50) at Different Sites • Mean Wind Speed vs. NCF (P50) • Effect of TurbineChoice on NCF (P75) • Effect of Unit MW on NCF (P50) • Effect of the Rotor Diameter on NCF (P50) • Evaluation of the Energy Yield Calculation Model • Financial Assumptions in IRR Calculations • Effect of NCF (P75) on IRR & DSCR • Effect of ESP on IRR & DSCR • Feed-in-tariffs in some Countries • Effect of CAPEX on IRR & DSCR • Recommendations

  3. GENERAL INFO ABOUT MICROSITINGS; • 38 Windmasts at several heights 50-85 m • 22 Windfarm Projects (7 licensedprojects, 246.5 MW) • 2 Softwares, Windfarmer and Windsim • In close contact with 15 turbine manufacturers (85% of the world market) • Measurements since summer 2008 • Most areas are “complex terrain” • MSc Thesis, I.T.U - “EFFECTS OF WIND DATA COLLECTED AT DIFFERENT HEIGHTS AND TIME INTERVALS TO THE WIND POTENTIAL” • Several Papers under progress…

  4. Why is the turbine choice so important ? • Depending on the turbine chosen, annual energy yield can vary up to 20% or even more. • All others are equal, 20% less energy yield may result a 60% drop in the IRR and 5 years longer pay-back period.

  5. A missleading approach ; average wind speed of the project At least 25 % Capacity Factor increase

  6. Different Sites… NCF has a good correlation with wind speed

  7. One Project Site…. NCF has an excellent correlation with wind speed

  8. Turbine choice may lead to 7.0% capacity factordifference.

  9. Effect of Unit MW on the Net Capacity Factor Optimum is around 2MW for projects evaluated

  10. Effect of the Rotor Diameter on the Net Capacity Factor higher rotor diameters produce more energy however they are more expensive…

  11. Evaluation of the Energy Yield Calculation Model In this specific site, model used has an effect on NCF around 0.7% which corresponds to a 2%(0.7/33) difference in energy output.

  12. Financial Assumptions in IRR Calculations In base scenario, • 1.120 EUR/kW CAPEX, • 70 EUR/MWh Electricity Sales Price, • 5 EUR/tonCO2 VER Price for a ten years period, • 32% Net Capacity Factor, • 43.000 EUR/MW/yr OPEX, • 6% bank profit rate with a 2+10 year loan payment • 10 years book depreciation • 10% salvage value at the end of 20 years is considered.

  13. Feed-in-tariffsin some Countries Higher the NCF, lower the tariff (avg. is around 80 EUR/MWh)

  14. Recommendations-1 TurbineEvaluationReports DiscussionswithEx-Employees QC Management@ 100% TestingFrequency Internet Research IRR Model FactoryInspection

  15. Recommendations-2 • Improve the EIE wind map by using the wind data of the investors. The EIE wind map is good enough at the moment to decide whether a region is OK for wind farm investment or not. (definitely not enough for micrositing) • Share of wind data among investors should be promoted by EMRA for licensed projects • TS specification for wind measurement, wind resource assessment, micrositing etc. is essential • Detailed and accurate micrositing is important for project finance • Different prices for different wind areas should be the policy of thegovernment(likeFrance, BulgariaandpreviouslyGermany, DenmarkandHolland) • Decreasing CAPEX and increasing O&M revenue can be a reasonable strategy • Long-term O&M agreement • Each investor should develop their own IRR model (financial model)Let’s have a brief look at our model.

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