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Roman Nowacki Lucent Technologies District Manager - Wireless (630) 979-7354, rnowacki@lucent

Roman Nowacki Lucent Technologies District Manager - Wireless (630) 979-7354, rnowacki@lucent.com. Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future. “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” - H. M. Warner, 1927 “What do 13 people in Seattle know that we don’t know?” - Ross Perot, EDS, 1980.

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Roman Nowacki Lucent Technologies District Manager - Wireless (630) 979-7354, rnowacki@lucent

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  1. Roman Nowacki Lucent Technologies District Manager - Wireless (630) 979-7354, rnowacki@lucent.com

  2. Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future • “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” • - H. M. Warner, 1927 • “What do 13 people in Seattle know that we don’t know?” • - Ross Perot, EDS, 1980

  3. Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future • Challenges of Predicting the Future • viewing future through filters (optimist/pessimist) • linear forecasting (future as more of the same) • discontinuous changes • Scenario Planning - tool to look into the future

  4. Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future • A Short History of Scenario Planning • Emerged in Military Planning - 50’s • Hudson Institute (thinking about unthinkable) - 60’s • Applied by Royal Dutch Shell and SRI - 70’s • Consulting Companies Established - 80’s, 90’s • Used by : GE, AT&T, Lucent, Erickson, Siemens • Applied to Customer Support Industry by the Consortium - 1999

  5. Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future • Definition: • Scenarios are stories which describe different, though equally plausible, futures. They are a tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments. They are combination of estimation of what might happen and assumptions about what could happen, but they are not forecasts of what will happen.

  6. Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future • Developing Scenarios - Step 1 Articulate WHAT question we are asking about the future. (example: What are the customer support and service business models of the future?)

  7. Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future • Developing Scenarios - Step 2 • Identify Driving Forces • - technology • - economics • - society • - politics • - customer expectations • Rank and Analyze Driving Forces Which are predetermined? Which are uncertain? Which are critical uncertainties?

  8. - Optical - DNA - Quantum - Etc. Limit of Moore’s Law? Brains of all Humans One Human Brain One Mouse Brain -10 -10 30 10 35 20 10 40 25 15 -5 -5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1900 1900 1920 1920 2000 2000 2020 1940 1940 1960 1960 1980 1980 2040 2060 2080 2100 One Insect Brain Driving Force: Moore’s Law (Calculations per Second bought by $1,000) Kurzweil, Raymond, The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence. New York: Viking Penguin, 1999

  9. Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future • Developing Scenarios - Step 3 • Discover Discontinuities • - disrupting technologies • - crossing the chasm • - impact of possible inventions

  10. Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future • Developing Scenarios - Step 4 • Create Scenarios • - emerge into a possible future • - what does it look like? • - narrative description • - what is inevitable? • - what is uncertain? • - what is critical? • - redo and redo and redo

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