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Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling (HSCB) Program

Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling (HSCB) Program. Dr. Robert E. Foster Director, BioSystems February 3, 2009. HSCB Investigators Conference. 1. The Origin of HSCB investment.

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Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling (HSCB) Program

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  1. Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling (HSCB) Program Dr. Robert E. Foster Director, BioSystems February 3, 2009 HSCB Investigators Conference 1

  2. The Origin of HSCB investment • Broad DoD subject matter expert team (HSCB SPG study) identified 75 HSCB capability areas and found 73 areas with critical gaps, 37 of which had no investment. • Widespread agreement from all communities (Planners, Intelligence, Trainers, Experimenters) on lack of available and mature HSCB data, models and tools. • Success in Irregular Warfare relies most heavily on understanding the human dimension of red, green, and blue forces and how they influence warfare and SSTRO (References, e.g., OPLAN 7500, NSPD-44, DoDD3000.05, FM3-7, FM3-24). • In Irregular Warfare, socio-cultural issues propagate across strategic, operational, and tactical level. 2

  3. Products Anticipated • Validated general-use software applications (e.g., GCCS HSCB portals; SKOPE updates) • Data/Knowledge generation, data management • Forecasting aids for Intelligence analysis, Influence Ops, and planning • Theory-based analytics and modeling • Ethnographic-socio-cultural reasoning engine • Automated scenario generation for red, white, gray side experimentation • Domain specific human-computer interfaces • Visualization of HSCB (e.g., DCGS human terrain visualizations; CJMTK products) • Influence operations COAA tools • Decision Aid and Situation Awareness C2 software • Science base and knowledge • Theory/Understanding HSCB influences and resulting software models • Ethnographically-valid socio-cultural behavior models • Computational models of societies in transition (strategic analyses for DIME) • Valid methodology • Training • Validated mission rehearsal content • Interactive multi-cultural interpersonal skills trainer/bilateral negotiation • Computer generated forces • Advanced distributed learning software environments 3

  4. HSCB will provide… ... unbiased, objective, valid science-based approaches to enable DoD Operations Planning, Information Operations, Analysis, Intelligence, Experimentation, and Training. It will create quantitative models & shaping tools that provide assessments, forecasts, options for courses of action (COAs), and decision support for understanding and reasoning about the human terrain of battlespaces. 4

  5. Operational Customer Environments for HSCB Product Transitions Experimentation Political diplomacy Military Economic Information Social Military Multinational experiments Joint Doctrine Experiments Infrastructure economic Information Intelligence/Influence Operations IntelligenceAnalysis Apollo/Athena Analysts Notebook Skope Assymetrical software kit Situational Influence Assessment Module JCURE data collection system Operations Planning Training & Mission Rehearsal Analysts Notebook MAP-Human Terrain toolkit Joint Integrative Analysis and Planning Capability (JIAPC) Tactical Language Trainer Battle Command Knowledge System 5

  6. J Army Air Force ODNI A N N Training Ops Planning Experimentation Intel/Influence Ops Intel Analysis HSCB HSCB 6.2/6.3 6.4 HSCB HSCB 2008 Army: Army Research Institute: - Leader adaptability - Training / Simulation Research Army Research Lab: - Adv Decision Architectures - Joint Geospatial Enterprise Services Navy: Office of Naval Research: - SNA & CogSci Models - Assymetric Warfare Air Force: Air Force Research Lab: - Adversary Modeling - Predictive Intent • OSD, DDR&E. STRATCOM: • Measuring Progress in Conflict Environments (MPICE) • Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS) • Mapping the Human Terrain (MAP-HT) • Sudan Study/SMA series JFCOM: J9: SEAS (agent based M&S) DoD R & E Investments NSF: Social Science Theory JFCOM DHS Apps • HSCB: • Distributed Common Ground Station (DCGS) • DIA & ODNI analysts (toolsets) • CENTCOM Operations Centers, COCOM Command & Control platforms • Combat training centers (JNTC, JRTC), Deployable training/mission rehearsal • JFCOM J9, JTF HQ, Mission Rehearsal and Training HSCB targets 6

  7. HSCB 2009 • Army Research Institute (Leader adaptability; Training/Simulation research) • Army Research Lab (Advanced decision architectures; Geospatial enterprise services • Office of Naval Research (SNA & CogSci models; Asymmetric warfare) • Air Force Research Lab (Adversary modeling; Predictive intent) • US Army TRISA (JNEM; MINERVA) • USACE (MPICE) • JFCOM (SEAS) • SOCOM (Influence operations) • PACOM/EUCOM (Strategic Modeling) • JIEDDO (Soc Dynamics Analysis IPT; Cultural Preparation of the Environment) • PA&E (X-Games) • DARPA (ICEWS; COMPOEX) • OSD JCTD (Mapping the Human Terrain) • NSF – Social Science Theory DoD Investments • Non-DoD Coordination • ODNI • DHS • DoS • DoE (PNNL) J N A J Army Air Force N Applications Training Ops Planning Experimentation Intel/Influence Ops Intel Analysis HSCB HSCB 6.2/6.3 • Transition Targets • Army/USMC/SOF Distributed Common Ground Station (DCGS) • Army Battle Command Knowledge System • DIA, ODNI, IC analysts (toolsets) • CENTCOM Operations Centers, COCOM Command & Control platforms • Combat training centers (JNTC, JRTC), Deployable training/mission rehearsal • JFCOM J9, JTF HQ, Mission Rehearsal and Training • Army TRADOC, USMC PMATRASYS cultural training • USAF C2 Collaborative Experimentation Environment (Windtunnel) 6.4 HSCB HSCB Targets 7

  8. PROGRAM OUTCOMES • Approaches to National Security problems (IW, SSTRO) have a HSCB THEORY BASE • A deep understanding of DATA, DATA MODELS, and DATA ACQUISITION techniques/methods • Modeling Applications are TRANSITIONED to users • HSCB-enabled TRAINING available for USG personnel

  9. BACKUP

  10. DODHFETAG November 5, 2008 Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling (HSCB) Bundle-- PE 0602670D8Z, PE 0603670D8Z, PE 0604670D8Z -- DESCRIPTION KEY MILESTONES • FY07-Revalidate needs and gaps, establish program execution plan; issue BAA (BA2) and “call-for-whitepapers” (BA3) • FY07- STTR & SBIR BAAs (10 topics total); repeat in 08-13 • FY08 - apply DARPA REALWORLD to HSCB “cultural awareness” training; provide software job aides for operational planners via Skope-like interfaces • FY09 - apply initial computational models from MURI projects into DCGS-A use scenarios (C2) • FY10 - apply theory of human social dynamics & behavior into JFCOM simulation environments • FY08-10 – complete annual “shoot-offs”– e.g., of data collection strategies/infrastructures for computational models within “Skope” or other military planning systems • Applied research, demonstration and prototyping-- to develop social science and theory ; to establish methods, metrics, analytical tools; to apply socio-cultural models for understanding human behavior dynamics and human terrain forecasting; and, to transition technology and methods into use for intelligence analysis, operations analysis/planning, training, and joint experimentation. • Explore the generalization of work in applied economics, political science, and applied statistics to military planning for irregular warfare (IW) • Guide MURI & STTR/SBIR investment to HSCB focus • Achieve TRL Level 7-8 technology transitions using BA3 demonstrations and BA4 prototyping • Performers: Extramural grants and contracts (competitive) PROGRAM MOTIVATION FUNDING • 2006 QDR: Need for improved use of socio-cultural information in GWOT and Irregular Warfare (IW) • OPPLAN 7500/CONPLAN 7500: Irregular Warfare • DoDD 3000.05 (Stability, Security, Transition & Reconstruction): Provide research base for stability operations and planning. • SPG (HSCB) study: Identified 37 critical capability gaps to supports strategic-to-tactical planning & operations. • Most Pressing Military Issue (JCS): Increase & improve IW capacity in conventional forces (language, cultural, behavioral, HUMINT) & ability to model irregular challenges See Current Congressional R2’s for budget profile 10

  11. Tactical Tactical Tactical Operational Operational Operational Strategic Strategic Strategic Influence Ops Influence Ops Influence Ops Intelligence Intelligence Intelligence Ops/Ops Planning Ops/Ops Planning Ops/Ops Planning Tactical Tactical Tactical 2008 Major Efforts ARI ONR AFOSR BA level AFOSR ONR ARI 6.1 ODNI AFRL DARPA AFRL ODNI AFRL DARPA 6.2/6.3 ERDC NDU 6.4 (HSCB only) NDU ERDC

  12. Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling Background • Recognized Operational Need: • “..the QDR acknowledges that victory in this long war depends on information, perception, and how and what we communicate as much as application of kinetic effects. These cultural and language capabilities also enhance effectiveness in a coalition setting during conventional operations.” Gen. P. Pace (2006 QDR: Commander’s Assessment) • “I asked my Brigade Commanders what was the number one thing they would have liked to have had more of, and they all said cultural knowledge.” Lt. Gen. P. Chiarelli (Dec 06) • “Must develop the ability to understand the complex human factors and must incorporate them into all facets of operations.” Maj. Gen. L. Freakley, CG 10th Mountain Div (Operational Needs Statement, Feb 06) 12

  13. Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling Background • 2006 QDR: • “….the importance of early measures to prevent problems from becoming conflicts and conflicts from becoming crises (pp.17-18)” • “..This war is both a battle of arms and a battle of ideas – a fight against terrorist networks and against their murderous ideology (p.24)” • “..considerably improved language and cultural awareness to develop a greater understanding of emerging powers and how they may approach strategic choices (p.31)” • “..Human intelligence, language skills and cultural awareness to understand better the intentions and motivations of potential adversaries and to speed recovery efforts (p.35)” • “..foster a level of understanding and cultural intelligence about the Middle East and Asia comparable to that developed about the Soviet Union during the Cold War (p. 78)” • DoDD 3000.05 (Military Support for Stability, Security, Transition and Reconstruction Operations): • “Stability operations are a core U.S. military mission…given priority comparable to combat operations….” • “U.S. military forces shall be prepared to perform...stability operations tasks…Rebuild indigenous institutions…..bottom-up economic activity and constructing necessary infrastructure… “ 13

  14. HSCB Categories of Anticipated Deliverables • Theory & science base: a military science of societies, cultures, and associated human social dynamics and behaviors • Data Models and Methodologies: techniques and procedures for data collection, management and dissemination • Formal data models and enabling data collection tools • Protocols for meta-data tagging • Protocols for geospatial visualization for planners and analysts • Computational Models: software for Command and Control (C2), intelligence and simulation systems • Validated models to support Human Terrain understanding within existing military planning and analysis systems • Software delivered to new and existing training systems • Validated models that supports AOR-specific Joint Experimentation exercises 14

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