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the outlook for energy:

the outlook for energy:. a view to 2030. Universiteit Twente, lunchlezing ExxonMobil 20 Mei 2009 Ton Jeen Benelux Environmental Advisor & SHE Team Lead. the outlook for energy. 100 countries. 15 demand sectors. 20 fuel types. global economics and energy. 0.9%. 1.8%. 0.6%. 2.3%. 0.3%.

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the outlook for energy:

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  1. the outlook for energy: a view to 2030 • Universiteit Twente, lunchlezing ExxonMobil • 20 Mei 2009 • Ton Jeen • Benelux Environmental Advisor & SHE Team Lead

  2. the outlook for energy 100 countries 15 demand sectors 20 fuel types

  3. global economics and energy

  4. 0.9% 1.8% 0.6% 2.3% 0.3% 2.2% 9.3% growing global energy demand 2030 2005 by fuel MBDOE 2030 2005

  5. ExxonMobil and the world energy market Source: EM Financial Reports, IEA, Oil & Gas Journal

  6. global energy demand & CO2 emissions energy demand CO2 emissions MBDOE billion tonnes IEA – Ref. Case Wind Solar & Biofuels Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 1.2% Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 1.0% Biomass Hydro & Geo Nuclear Coal Coal Gas Gas Oil Oil

  7. CO2 outlook by region IEA – Ref. Case United States European Union China billion tonnes billion tonnes billion tonnes Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 -0.6% Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 -0.6% Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 2.1% IEA – Ref. Case IEA – Ref. Case

  8. summary • economic progress, especially in developing countries continues to drive energy demand 35% higher • oil, gas and coal will remain predominant at ~80% of energy mix, even with significant growth in alternatives • CO2 emissions expected to rise globally, even with improved efficiency

  9. the energy imperative

  10. integrated set of solutions increaseefficiency Technology mitigate emissions expandsupply

  11. Mitigate emissions: near-term, beyond 2030 and in the chain

  12. making vehicles more efficient • efficiency and technological developments in vehicles are critical • we are developing vehicle technologies to improve fuel economy and reduce emissions breakthrough technologies advanced technologies for conventional vehicles advanced vehicles

  13. on-board hydrogen reformer hydrogen production fuel cell stack exhaust electricity H2 fuel water future current target

  14. energy efficiency – one quart at a time • Mobil 1 AFE: Lower-viscosity synthetic motor oil launched in April • can improve fuel economy by up to 2 percent versus most common motor oils • builds on ExxonMobil’s 30-year tradition of protecting against engine wear

  15. reinventing your wheels • ExxproTM: ExxonMobil Chemical’s new tire lining technology • enables lighter, more durable tires • maintains proper air pressure longer than conventional tires • helps save fuel, creating fewer emissions

  16. enhanced lithium ion batteries • ExxonMobil Chemical has developed new separator film for lithium-ion batteries • may be more cost-effective than current batteries, potentially resulting in more drivers opting for hybrid vehicles • improves safety, reliability and power of batteries for hybrid vehicles

  17. capturing and storing CO2

  18. Global Climate & Energy Project • an unprecedented alliance of scientists and companies over a 10-year period • focus on creating commercially viable low emissions technologies • projects at Stanford and in Europe, USA, Japan, Australia • research projects include: • designing and fabricating solar cells with the goal of developing efficient and low-cost options to convert solar energy into electricity • exploring the science underlying the operation of fuel cells • approaches to the capture, separation and storage of carbon dioxide emissions

  19. Global Energy Management System (GEMS) • Wereldwijd systeem ingevoerd in 2000 om energie-efficientie maatregelen te stimuleren • Processen optimaliseren • Wereldwijd delen + implementeren van ‘best practices’ • Investeringen voor grote, permanente verbeterslagen • Voorbeelden: • Warmte-Kracht-Koppeling • Warmte-integratie + warmteverlies herwinning projecten • Mogelijke projecten om raffinage- en chemie-energiegebruik wereldwijd met 15-20% te reduceren • > 50% reeds gerealiseerd • Kostenbesparing van ~$750m in 2006 • Resultaat: • Mogelijke CO2 reductie van ~8 miljoen ton/jaar • Benelux raffinaderijen behoren tot meest energie efficiente in Europa

  20. Wat is Warmtekracht Koppeling ?

  21. 34% Efficiency 50% Efficiency SIMPLE CYCLE 34 % Electricity 1 % Other 65 % Stack Gas COMBINED CYCLE 50 % Electricity 2 % Other 20 % Stack Gas 28 % Condensed Steam 80% Efficiency COGENERATION 34 % Electricity 2 % Other 18 % Stack Gas 46 % Process Heat Voordelen van WKK • Energy efficiency • Reduced CO2 • Cost savings • Secure supply

  22. Upstream Downstream ExxonMobil WKK – Nu & Toekomst • ExxonMobil WKK capaciteit • Sinds 2004 investeerde ExxonMobil meer dan $1 miljard in WKK • 4.5 GW reeds geinstalleerd op 100+ WKK installaties in 30+ locaties • ~10 MT/jaar bespaarde CO2 uitstoot • Plannen om capaciteit te verdubbelen tegen 2015 • CO2 emissie reductie naar verwachting meer dan 20 MT/jaar • Stabiel investeringsklimaat nodig • Estimates

  23. Emissiebesparing door WKK’s van ExxonMobil is equivalent aan… ~500% van windopwekking in Nederland ~ 70% van windopwekking in Spanje ~ 45% van windopwekking in Duitsland ~ 55% van windopwekking inU.S.A. * Environmental Performance Equivalents Environmental Performance Equivalents

  24. Nieuwe WKK Antwerpen • Project: • Gas gestookte GE 9E GTG (130 MW) • Additionele Heat Recovery Unit om stoom te genereren én ruwe olie voor te verwarmen • Belangrijke faciliterende factoren (‘Enablers’) • Balancering mechanisme en marktdeelname door contracten gezekerd • Geen transmissie issues met ISO Elia • Ondersteundend WKK beleid door Vlaamse autoriteiten

  25. conclusion • population and economies will expand; energy demand and CO2 emissions will rise • integrated set of solutions required • increase efficiency • expand supply • mitigate emissions • technology breakthroughs are critical • meeting this demand will require a global effort

  26. Dank voor jullie aandacht! • Zijn er nog vragen of opmerkingen? • Indien later: • Tel.: 010-4874415 • E-mail: ton.jeen@exxonmobil.com

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