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Bias Puzzles & Mysteries. “I’m O.K., You’re Biased”. bathroom scales saliva test for “enzyme deficiency” students’ intelligence People are biased in terms of always seeking their own self interests, but (like Paul F.’s bagel business) there are limits: “ultimatum game”.
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“I’m O.K., You’re Biased” • bathroom scales • saliva test for “enzyme deficiency” • students’ intelligence • People are biased in terms of always seeking their own self interests, but (like Paul F.’s bagel business) there are limits: “ultimatum game”. Only reliable method for avoiding bias is to ______ situations that produce it. examples?
Intelligence Reform and Predictive Validity Senator Shelby’s investigative report on 9/11 argues that the fundamental failure was the Intelligence Community’s inability to what: ______ ___ _____? “creeping determinism” psychologist Baruch Fischhoff’s study of Richard Nixon’s trip to China The central challenge of intelligence gathering has always been the problem of ______. Seldom does intelligence information touch on both ______ and ________.
Intelligence Reform and Predictive Validity • 1970s study by Stanford psychology professor David Rosenhan: - Pearl Harbor, the CIA, and the Bay of Pigs - “groupthink” and the tendency to oscillate between centralization (JFK, Bush II) and constructive rivalries (FDR, Clinton) - FBI and CIA’s rivalry/relationship pre-9/11 - Humans have a craving for predictive validity and a visceral aversion to ambiguity/uncertainty. (i.e. E-D) “Ellsberg Paradox”: risk vs. uncertainty(i.e. UR exams)
Puzzles,Mysteries, and National Security Where is Osama bin Laden? (puzzle) What will happen in Iraq after the toppling of Saddam? (mystery) Mysteries require judgments and assessments of uncertainty, and the hard part is not that we have too little information but that we have too MUCH of it. Puzzles stem from a LACK of data/information. The distinction is crucial. Question: Was 9/11 a puzzle or a mystery?
Puzzles,Mysteries, and National Security If things go wrong with a puzzle, identifying the culprit is easy: it’s the person who withheld information (presidential aides, corporate executives, informants, etc.). Mysteries, though, are a lot murkier. Puzzles tend to come to satisfying conclusions (where is Saddam?). They grow simpler with the addition of each new piece of information/data. Mysteries rarely grow simpler; instead, they grow more complex and harder to solve with the addition of new information/data.
Classic Puzzle Watergate August 9, 1974 “Deep Throat” Mark Felt
Prototypical Mystery Diagnosing prostate cancer (used to be apuzzle): Doctors used to do a rectal exam and feel for a lumpy tumor on the surface of the patient’s prostrate. Today doctors don’t wait for patients to develop the painful symptoms of prostate cancer. They regularly test—collect data/info—on middle-aged men (elevated PSA levels). If the results look abnormal (2 standard deviations above the mean for middle-age men), they use ultrasound imagine to take a picture. If the picture looks abnormal—compared to middle-age men without prostate cancer—they take a biopsy (removing tiny slices of the gland) and examine the tissue under a microscope. Rarely are the findings absolutely definitive (unless the cancer is very advanced, by which time the doctor would have already found it through the rectal exam). Thus, the doctor is no longer confirming the presence of a malignancy. Instead, he or she is predicting it, and the certainties of previous doctors have been replaced with outcomes than can only be said to be “highly probable” or “tentatively” estimated. Doctors disagree about the predictive validity of the PSA test & biopsy. This form of medical progress has involved the switch from solving a puzzle to pursuing a mystery. POLICY DILEMMA: Should all men and women over 40 get PSA tests and mammograms?
Enron: Puzzle or Mystery? Clue: company paid no income tax in 4 of its last 5 years (1997-2001) All the information/data used to write the critical Wall Street Journal article on September 20, 2000 by Jonathan Weil came directly from the company’s annual reports and quarterly filings. No “Deep Throat” or insider info/data. Similarly, all the information/data used to write the critical Fortune article, “Is Enron Overpriced?” in March 2001 came from personal meetings with Enron’s senior managers and from the same annual reports and quarterly filings. SPE’s (Special Purpose Entities) where Enron hid its bad debt were required to publicly file their financial numbers (revenues, expenses, etc.) with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission). They were available to anyone and everyone, including students at Cornell….
