The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market

1. The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market Economic Development and the New Workforce Dallas, Texas March 24, 2003 Richard Froeschle, Director Career Development Resources(CDR) rich@cdr.state.tx.us (512) 491-4941

2. Economic forecasting is a field that gives Astrology a good name!

4. A Changing Texas Labor Market 1. It’s a recession if you don’t have a job, otherwise it’s just a three-year downturn! 2. Economists still very divided on duration, turning point signals, impact of Iraq war, and level of job growth in recovery

5. What do labor economists agree on? • All jobs, even the most low-skilled, will require higher levels of basic education, math, communication and technology skills…for survival and growth • More opportunities in the knowledge sector. Level job growth in low-paying, low-skill service jobs. Harder to get from one to the other with education and skills acquisition • Those persons without some specialized knowledge or skill are likely to suffer declining real wages

6. Fastest Growing Computer Support Specialists Computer Software Engineers Applications Desktop Publishers Computer Software Engineers Systems Systems Communication Analyst Database Administrators Medical Information Technicians Social/Human Services Assistants Special Ed Teachers Adding Most Jobs Customer Service Reps Fast Food Prep Workers Child Care workers Retail Sales Workers Registered Nurses Cashiers, ex. Gaming Computer Support Specialists General Office Clerks Waiter/Waitress General Operations Mgrs Elementary School Teachers Secondary School Teachers Projected Growth Occupations Texas 2000-2010

7. What do labor economists agree on? (II) 4. The Digital Divide exists and those on the wrong side will have limited hiring and advancement opportunities 5. Jobs requiring “human touch” will continue to be in demand e.g. health services and nursing, construction, personal services. No commodities! 6. Technology is rapidly changing business practices, knowledges, skills & hiring requirements making lifelong learning essential: No more “paving the cow path”

8. U.S. Industries Adding Most Jobs 2000-2010 • 1. Computer and Data Processing 1.80 mil • 2. Retail Trade 1.60 mil • 3. Eating & Drinking Places 1.48 mil • 4. Offices of Health Practitioners 1.24 mil • 5. State and Local Education 1.07 mil • 6. Misc. Business Services 1.00 mil • 7. Construction 824 thou • 8. State and Local Government 808 thou • 9. Wholesale Trade 776 thou • 10. Health Services, NEC 689 thou • 13. Residential Care 512 thou • 14. Hospitals 509 thou • 16. Nursing/Personal Care Facilities 394 thou

9. More Jobs in Services… Texas Absolute Job Growth 1999-2002 • Educational Services • Food Services/Drinking Places • Ambulatory Health Care Services • Professional and Technical Services • Local Government • Specialty Trade Contractors • General Merchandise Stores • Hospitals • Heavy and Civil Construction • Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers

10. Job Declines in Goods Producing Sectors Texas Industries Losing Most Jobs 1999-2002 • Agriculture/Forestry Support • Computer/Electronic Manufacturing • Apparel Manufacturing • Transportation Equip Manufacturing • Fabricated Metal Manufacturing • Chemical Manufacturing • Oil & Gas Extraction • Food & Beverage Stores • Administrative Support Services • Federal Government

11. A Changing Texas Labor Market 3. More jobs in small firms, greater use of leased and independent contract labor means fewer and shorter career ladders 4. Workplace earnings are increasingly correlated with education and earnings inequality is increasing based on education and the “Digital Divide”

13. Distribution of U.S. Employment by Education Category Education Category Employment 2000 2010 Percent distribution Jobs Added Between 2000-2010 Mean Annual Earnings 2000 Bachelors Degree or higher 20.7% 21.8% 29.3% $56,553 First Professional Degree 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% $91,424 Doctoral Degree 1.0% 1.1% 1.6% $52,146 Masters Degree 1.0% 1.0% 1.5% $43,842 Bachelors plus work experience 5.0% 5.2% 6.4% $69,967 Bachelors Degree 12.2% 13.0% 18.1% $48,440 Associate Degree 3.5% 4.0% 7.3% $41,488 Postsecondary vocational award 4.6% 4.7% 5.5% $31,296 Work experience 7.2% 8.5% 6.9% 5.0% $40,881 Long-term OJT 8.0% 4.2% $33,125 Moderate-term OJT 19.0% 18.4% 14.1% $29,069 Short-term OJT 36.6% 36.3% 34.6% $19,799

14. A Changing Texas Labor Market 5. Changing demography affects everything from education needs, workplace diversity, tax structure, retirement planning 6. Globalization changes economic theory, business practices and labor supply options 7. Changing shape of education and workforce preparation

15. Population Pyramids for Anglo and Hispanic Ethnic Groups in Texas, 2000 Anglo Hispanic Male Female Male Female

16. How Globalization Impacts the Labor Market—The Basics • Globalization & new digital technology opens producer/consumer markets around the world • Increased customer access to producers leads to global price competition, driving employer need for greater productivity, lower prices • Increased price competition leads to cost containment pressures • Cost containments leads employers to new supply chain practices, concerns over labor costs, alternative labor options

17. Education and Labor Supply a. Changing demographics-new mix of diversity in the labor pool b. Relevance of a college major? c. College credential vs. industry certification? Value of a diploma? d.Counting skill attainment from non-traditional sources, e.g. on- line courses, employer training, Marketable skills achievers?

18. The Workplace of the Future... The factory of the future has just one man and one dog. The man’s job is to feed the dog. The dog’s job is to keep the man from touching the equipment.