1 / 33

Ethanol, Grain Marketing, and Risk Management

Ethanol, Grain Marketing, and Risk Management. 25 th Annual Tri-State Agricultural Lender’s Seminar Dubuque, Iowa Oct. 26, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. Oil Prices. Source: EIA for history, NYMEX for future. Population.

zacharee
Télécharger la présentation

Ethanol, Grain Marketing, and Risk Management

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Ethanol, Grain Marketing, and Risk Management 25th Annual Tri-State Agricultural Lender’s Seminar Dubuque, Iowa Oct. 26, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. Oil Prices Source: EIA for history, NYMEX for future

  3. Population Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base

  4. Liquid Fuel Usage Source: Energy Information Administration

  5. Ethanol Production Source: EIA, 2011 Projection by Hart

  6. Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1)

  7. Corn Grind for Ethanol Source: DOE-EIA

  8. Ethanol Margins Source: CARD

  9. Ethanol Margins Source: CARD

  10. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  11. RFS Coverage

  12. Gasoline Consumption Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

  13. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  14. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  15. Projected Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  16. Projected Soybean Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  17. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  18. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  19. Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 10/25/2011

  20. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  21. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  22. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  23. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  24. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  25. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  26. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  27. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

  28. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

  29. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

  30. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

  31. Iowa Crop Margins

  32. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • US job recovery, European financial concerns, Chinese inflation • Supply/demand concerns • Smaller than anticipated U.S. crops • Biofuel growth and energy demand • Corn still has the upper hand in the acreage competition • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • 2011/12: USDA: Corn $6.70; Soy $13.15 • Futures (as of 10/25/11): Corn $6.32; Soy $11.97 • 2012/13: Futures (as of 10/25/11): Corn $5.90; Soy $11.92

  33. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

More Related