Oil

1. Oil Can we get out of this mess together?

2. What We KNOW! • The world’s economy is intimately linked with all aspects of petrochemical use • Without oil our global society will crumble • We have other energy alternatives but none in isolation can provide the massive amount of energy provided by oil • Nearly all aspects of manufacturing rely on oil for energy AND raw materials • Climate Change is possibly the greatest environmental threat that human society has ever encountered • Reducing oil consumption will ensure that we have more time figure out how to live in a world without Oil • The UN Climate Change Conference in Denmark (Dec 2009) may be the place where we finally start working together

3. The Problem • When it comes to resources of any kind human society has failed miserably at sustainably sharing between 2 or more users • The “Tragedy of the Commons” a dilemma in which multiple individuals acting independently and solely and rationally consulting their own self-interest will ultimately destroy a shared limited resource even when it is clear that it is not in anyone's long term interest for this to happen • Are we not above this as a modern society?

4. Kyoto to Copenhagen • Our Current international agreement with respect to Climate Change is the Kyoto Protocol • At its core the Kyoto Protocol had great intentions: Reduce Our Global Emissions of CO2 • In practice the agreement had little clout to penalize countries who did not or could not fulfill their obligations • Kyoto expires in 2012 • COP 15 in Copenhagen Denmark is our next chance to get this right • The big question is: IS IT POSSIBLE TO MAKE ALL NATIONS COPPERATE AND BE ACCOUNTABLE? • Sound easy? Now its time for you to give it a try……

5. Collective Action • Great things are possible when groups of people work together to achieve a common goal • WE DO have the technology and capacity to begin fighting climate change NOW • However for any action to work it must have the support and commitment of our entire world’s population. • Key Questions: • What needs to be in place to ensure cooperation? • What might lead to sustained cooperation? • What might lead to one or more Nations declining to participate in a new agreement on Climate Change?

6. Bunny and the Snake Time to play a game: • Find a Partner • Two symbols: • Bunny (peace sign) • Snake (two finger claw) Point Allocations: Snake to Bunny = 3 points to snake Bunny to Snake = 0 points to bunny Snake to Snake = o points to snake Bunny to Bunny = 2 points each bunny

7. The Prisoner’s Dilemma • Game Theory • Two prisoners arrested and taken in for questioning • Each prisoner told that if they rat out their friend they will be set free • If one prisoner rats out their friend, he (the friend) will be sent to prison for 10 years • If neither player talks each will only receive a short 6 month sentence • If both talk each will receive a 5 year sentence • There is ALWAYS a choice to make……….

8. Real World Negative Collective Action • The hoarding of consumer goods • The news of a shortage promotes people stockpiling the item and creates a shortage… • The deterioration of public hallways • Everyone prefers that someone else cleans up a public area • However each neighbor's free-riding discourages others from cleaning • In the end no one wants to clean up and the situation gets worse and worse • Aggressive Driving • As more people speed it becomes harder and harder for others to drive safely at the speed limit

9. Our Game • New regulations outlining CO2 emission reduction has just been established at the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference. • As a representative of your country you have been asked to participate in a CO2 reduction panel on a yearly basis. • Each year your country and 23 others will sit down to see how your individual reductions in CO2 has either met or not met your obligation as agreed in Copenhagen

10. Remember • You get the most benefit from being the only country not to cooperate • You get the least benefit from being the only cooperator • The more countries that cooperate the greater the collective benefit • If no countries cooperate their will be great but random consequences to various countries. Climate Change does not discriminate……

11. The Copenhage Commitment • 24 nations pledged 38 units of emission reductions per year • United States = 8 units • Japan = 5 Units • Germany = 3 Units • Russia = 2 Units • 20 other Countries = 1 Unit each

12. Your Package • Contains confidential instructions on how you the ambassador are to represent the interest of your Nation • Contains “table A” a table of costs associated with different outcomes. • Your goal is to minimize your countries losses and maximize their gains • There WILL be a winner at the end of 10-12 rounds

13. How to play • In each round you choose to either fulfill your commitment. • Smaller countries can pledge 0 or 1 unit of reduction • Larger countries can pledge to reduce all of their commitment or a fraction of their total commitment • The format in between rounds is completely decentralized. You may meet with other individual countries, form small or large Coalitions, you may make speeches…. But no one has to listen! • Before the first round their will be 10 minutes of discussion. There will be 5 minutes between each additional round while scores are recorded/calculated

14. For the rest of class • Review your confidential package carefully • Develop an initial strategy with which you want to approach this simulation (make sure to follow any roles outlined in your confidential package) • You may approach other countries and try to make coalitions and agreements before we start • Remember their WILL be a winner to this simulation who will receive a special PRIZE.