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Francesca Marcucci , Lucio Torrisi with the contribution of Valeria Montesarchio, ISMAR-CNR

First experiments with COSMO-ME-EPS. Francesca Marcucci , Lucio Torrisi with the contribution of Valeria Montesarchio, ISMAR-CNR CNMCA, National Meteorological Center,Italy. Outline. The Ensemble Data Assimilation at CNMCA: Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF)

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Francesca Marcucci , Lucio Torrisi with the contribution of Valeria Montesarchio, ISMAR-CNR

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  1. First experiments with COSMO-ME-EPS Francesca Marcucci, Lucio Torrisi with the contribution of Valeria Montesarchio, ISMAR-CNR CNMCA, National Meteorological Center,Italy

  2. Outline The Ensemble Data Assimilation at CNMCA: Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) Towards the probabilistic forecast: the COSMO-ME EPS First runs with COSMO-ME EPS A sea state EPS: NETTUNO-EPS Future developments

  3. CNMCA NWP SYSTEM since 1 June 11 • The operational CNMCA short-range ensemble prediction system is based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) approach (Bonavita, Torrisi and Marcucci, 2008, 2010), for the data assimilation component (estimation of the initial conditions), and the COSMO regional model for the prognostic one. LETKF analysis ensemble (40+1 members) every 6h using TEMP, PILOT, SYNOP, SHIP, BUOY, VAD/Wind Profilers, AMDAR-ACAR-AIREP, MSG3-MET7 AMV, MetopA-B scatt. winds, NOAA/MetopA AMSUA radiances + Land SAF snow mask, IFS SST analysis once a day EnKF DA Control State Analysis 10 km 45 v.l. COSMO-ME (7km) ITALIAN MET SERVICE 2.8 km 50 v.l. • compressible equations • explicit convection • compressible equations • parameterized convection 7 km 40 v.l. Local Area Modelling: COSMO

  4. AnalysisStep The Ensemble Data Assimilation at CNMCA Actually only the assimilation is based on the ensemble technique The 40 + 1 forecast members are run up to 9 hours in order to produce the BG ensemble for the next analysis step ForecastStep BG Forecasts time Initial conditions time BG Forecasts Initial conditions The operational forecast up to 48 hours is done using the deterministic member AnalysisStep BG ForecastStep CONTROL RUN ENS MEAN time Initial conditions BG Forecasts

  5. Toward a probabilistic forecast system: the COSMO-ME EPS The implementation of a short range EPS based on COSMO-ME is straightforward “extending” the forecast members integration AnalysisStep AnalysisStep BG BG ForecastStep BG Forecasts IC time • A first implementation of COSMO-ME EPS has being tested at CNMCA in the framework of MYWAVE project ( short range sea state EPS based on COSMO-ME EPS: NETTUNO EPS) • The main characteristics of COSMO-ME EPS are: • Domain and resolution: COSMO model is integrated on the same domain of the CNMCA-LETKF system. • IC and BC: initial conditions are derived from the CNMCA-LETKF system. Lateral  boundaries conditions are from IFS deterministic run perturbed using ECMWF-EPS. • Model error: stochastics physics perturbation tendencies will be evaluated. • Forecast range: the 40+1 COSMO forecast members are running up to 48 hours in order to produce the wind forecast to be given as input to the NETTUNO system at 00 UTC.

  6. First run with COSMO-ME EPS 40 members with 0.09° grid spacing, 26km (18hPa) model top, 45 vertical levels, IC from CNMCA LETKF, BC from deterministic IFS perturbed by ECMWF EPS 27 nov 2012 00 UTC

  7. 27 nov 2012 +18-24 +24-30 +30-36 +36-42 CONTROL RUN  EPS NOSP MEAN  COSMO-ME EPS EPS NOSP PROB20 

  8. NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS part of MYWAVE project NETTUNO is a high resolution local scale wave forecast system operational in the Mediterranean Sea based on the COSMO-ME and WAM models (In cooperation with ISMAR-CNR of Venice) The sea state probabilistic forecast is obtained driving the wave model using the hourly COSMO-ME EPS wind forecast members The NETTUNO-EPS consists of 40+1 members, that are integrated at 00 UTC up to 48 hour forecast in the Mediterranean basin

  9. NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS 22 may 2013 Time evolution of the ensemble mean ens mean Meeting 27 Maggio 2013

  10. NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS Time evolution of the ensemble spread ens spread Meeting 27 Maggio 2013

  11. NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS ens spread 06 ens mean 06 ens spread 12 ens mean 12 Meeting 27 Maggio 2013

  12. NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS Confronto media-deviazione standard ens spread 18 ens mean 18 ens spread 24 ens mean 24 Meeting 27 Maggio 2013

  13. NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS Confronto media-deviazione standard ens spread 30 ens mean 30 ens spread 36 ens mean 36 Meeting 27 Maggio 2013

  14. NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS Confronto media-deviazione standard ens spread 42 ens mean 42 ens spread 48 ens mean 48 Meeting 27 Maggio 2013

  15. Future Developments Calibration/tuning of the COSMO-ME EPS Evaluation of stochastic physics impact over a long period Validation of the NETTUNO-EPS Soil moisture perturbation

  16. Thanks for your attention!

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