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P2.3 Short-term climate variability - Dynamics and Processes

P2.3 Short-term climate variability - Dynamics and Processes. Huw C. Davies, Conny Schwierz, Mischa Croci-Maspoli, Olivia Martius, Harald Sodemann. Research Focii Synoptic phenomena and event-based climatologies :

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P2.3 Short-term climate variability - Dynamics and Processes

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  1. P2.3 Short-term climate variability - Dynamics and Processes Huw C. Davies, Conny Schwierz, Mischa Croci-Maspoli, Olivia Martius, Harald Sodemann • Research Focii • Synoptic phenomena and event-based climatologies: • Blocking Detection and Patterns of Climate Variability • Cyclones, Streamers, Waves and heavy weather • Tropospheric transport phenomena: • Saharan dust events in Swiss ice cores • Origin of water for Greenland precipitation

  2. Tropopause height anomaly Blocking Detection and Indices SLP anomaly dipole and Z500 ridge  traditional detection indices • 3dim PV-Index Schwierz et al., 2004, GRL

  3. PV Blocking climatology DJF (ERA40) APV APV* 13% 10% 5% 1% 1.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 476 events  3.5 per month 116 events  0.9 per month • Climatological assessment, temporal development • Relation to patterns of climate variability (e.g. NAO, PNA) Maspoli et al., 2005, to be submitted ;Scherrer et al., 2005, submitted

  4. tropopause PV-streamer Alps sea sea wind field Heavy Alpine Precipitation Case studies (e.g. Massacand et al., 1998): PV streamers associated with heavy Alpine precipitation NCCR: ERA40 streamer climatology and 1966-1999 rain obs climatology Linkage of most extreme (1%) precipitation with PV streamers  Are there precursors for heavy precipitation ?

  5. Climatological link between upper-level PV-streamers and heavy precipitation along the Alpine south-side (AS) [%] 33-yr composite of heavy precip PV-streamers On 73% of the most extreme 1% AS-precipitation days, a PV-streamer is present over western Europe (86% for autumn events) Martius et al., 2005, submitted

  6. October 2000 March 2000 Saharan dust in an ice core Sodemann et al., ACPD, 2005, submitted

  7. Moisture uptake regions NAO + NAO - 100 % 50 0 Precipitation (contours: 10, 20, 40, 60, 80 %) SST uptakes # 284.33K NAO- NAO+ 278.89K [K]

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