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Moving Away from Poverty A Spatial Analysis of Poverty and Migration in Albania

Moving Away from Poverty A Spatial Analysis of Poverty and Migration in Albania. Alberto Zezza Gero Carletto Benjamin Davis Presented by Talip Kilic DECRG - PO, World Bank Tirana, 10 June 2008. Objective. Explore the poverty migration nexus Spatial relationship

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Moving Away from Poverty A Spatial Analysis of Poverty and Migration in Albania

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  1. Moving Away from PovertyA Spatial Analysis of Poverty and Migration in Albania Alberto ZezzaGero CarlettoBenjamin Davis Presented by Talip Kilic DECRG - PO, World Bank Tirana, 10 June 2008

  2. Objective • Explore the poverty migration nexus • Spatial relationship • Differentiate by types of migration • Methodology • Estimate district & commune migration flows • Produce migration maps and compare to poverty maps

  3. Outline • Background • Results/Maps • Absorption/Expulsion Indices • Comparison with Poverty Maps • Different Levels of Geo-Disaggregation • Conclusions

  4. Background • Poverty • 25.4% below poverty line • Highest incidence in rural areas and the North-East • Migration • International • 600,000+ permanent; plus temporary/seasonal • Internal • RuralUrban & UrbanUrban (Tirana and Coast)

  5. Migration Typologies • Mostly internal: North East – Mountain • Internal receivers & international senders: Tirana, Coast, Korce • International outflows: South, Malesi e Madhe, Kucove

  6. Data & Methodology • Data: 1989 & 2001 Population and Housing Censuses & 2002 Poverty Map (Small Area Est.) • Population balancing equation: • Expulsion index: Outflow/Pop89 • District level • Internal • International • Absorption index: Inflow/Pop01 • District & commune level

  7. Expulsion Poverty

  8. ExpulsionInternational Internal Poverty

  9. Migrationflows

  10. Absorption Poverty

  11. Absorption Poverty

  12. Simple correlations

  13. TiranaInflow Poverty 35% + New residents in the poorest areas!

  14. Conclusions/1 • Welfare and location important determinants • Internal ≠International • Poverty: Push factor for internal, constraint to international? • Fight poverty at source! • Urban: poverty higher among recent immigrants

  15. Conclusions (Cont’d) • Further research: • Causality • Sequencing • Return migration

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