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Global summary Northern hemisphere extra-tropics:  jet stream and tropopause dynamics

Seasonal Climate – Summer 2010. Global summary Northern hemisphere extra-tropics:  jet stream and tropopause dynamics  Russian heatwave, Pakistan floods Attribution studies. Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion, 26 November 2010. Beijing Climate Center bcc.cma.gov.cn/en.

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Global summary Northern hemisphere extra-tropics:  jet stream and tropopause dynamics

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  1. Seasonal Climate – Summer 2010 • Global summary • Northern hemisphere extra-tropics:  jet stream and tropopause dynamics  Russian heatwave, Pakistan floods • Attribution studies Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion, 26 November 2010

  2. Beijing Climate Center bcc.cma.gov.cn/en

  3. Winter El Niño to Summer La Niña 2m Temperature, anomaly JJA 2010 NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin NOAA ESRL

  4. Tropical Convection OLR anomaly JJA 2010 Equatorial OLR anomaly 5N–5S CPC / NCEP & Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

  5. Global Circulation – JJA Winds, 200hPa Streamfunction, sigma=0.210 Streamfunction, sigma=0.850 Winds, 850hPa

  6. Global Circulation – JJA streamfunction Streamfunction, sigma=0.210 anomaly, sigma=0.210 Streamfunction, sigma=0.850 anomaly, sigma=0.850

  7. Temperature anomalies NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

  8. UK mean temperature (anomaly) May April June July Aug Sept

  9. UK precipitation (% normal) May April June July Aug Sept

  10. July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly) 25 June – 02 July ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)

  11. July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly) 02 – 09 July ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)

  12. July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly) 09 – 16 July ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)

  13. July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly) 16 – 23 July ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)

  14. July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly) 23 – 30 July ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)

  15. July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly) 30 July – 11 August ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)

  16. July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly) 11 – 20 August ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)

  17. Dynamical tropopause evolution 23-30 July 30 July – 11 Aug ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)

  18. 250hPa winds, 24-30 July Climatology NOAA ESRL

  19. 250hPa winds, 24-30 July 2010 NOAA ESRL

  20. NOAA attribution studies • Aim to attribute extreme anomalies  variability (regression / historical analogues)  climate warming? • Martin Hoerling: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/

  21. NOAA attribution studies

  22. Summary • Persistent waves on northern jet stream • (blocking) anticyclone) over western Russia  strong upstream & downstream troughs  jet entrance forcing of ascent over Pakistan?

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