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Iowa Farmland

Iowa Farmland

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Iowa Farmland

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  1. Iowa Farmland Realtors Land Institute December 6, 2004 Michael Duffy

  2. Outline • Background • Land Values • Rate of Return • Expectations • Land Ownership Trends and Implications • Land Rents and Rental Arrangements • Costs of Production • Are we set up for another fall?

  3. Iowa Farmland • 68 percent of land is harvested • 62 percent of the land is in corn or soybeans • 68 percent of the land in farms is in corn or soybeans • Iowa farmland valued at approximately $73B • 91 percent of land is in farms

  4. Lyon Osceola Dickinson Emmet Winnebago Worth Mitchell Howard 87% 91% 88% 90% 92% 90% 88% 79% Winneshiek Allamakee 58% 35% Kossuth 94% Sioux OBrien Clay Palo Alto Hancock Cerro Gordo Floyd Chickasaw 89% 91% 88% 92% 95% 92% 88% 83% Fayette Clayton 77% 53% Humboldt Bremer Plymouth Cherokee Buena Vista Pocahontas Wright Franklin Butler 95% 87% 83% 82% 92% 95% 95% 92% 87% Dubuque Black Hawk Buchanan Delaware Webster 49% 91% 88% 76% Woodbury Ida Sac Calhoun Hamilton Hardin Grundy 93% 77% 86% 92% 94% 93% 89% 93% Jackson 39% Jones Tama Benton Linn 71% Monona Crawford Carroll Greene Boone Story Marshall 79% 83% 76% 82% 82% 87% 90% 88% 89% 86% Clinton 82% Cedar 83% Harrison Jasper Poweshiek Iowa Shelby Audubon Guthrie Dallas Polk Johnson 82% 87% 79% 68% 84% 78% 70% 65% Scott 84% 70% 89% Muscatine 79% Warren Keokuk Washington Pottawattamie Cass Adair Madison Marion Mahaska 84% 46% 49% 59% 72% 63% 72% 74% 60% Louisa 78% Mills Montgomery Adams Clarke Lucas Monroe Wapello Jefferson Union Henry 87% 54% 58% 74% 53% 40% 25% 22% 26% 70% Des Moines 20% - 40% 81% Van Buren Davis Fremont Page Wayne Appanoose Taylor Ringgold Decatur 40% - 60% 42% 86% 23% 33% Lee 68% 49% 29% 24% 37% 60% - 80% 65% 80% - 100% Percent of Farmland* in Corn, Soybeans *Does not include land in building sites or woodlands.

  5. Lyon Osceola Dickinson Emmet Winnebago Worth Mitchell Howard 0.9% 4.2% 3.3% 2.2% 4.8% 4.4% 3.7% 7.7% Winneshiek Allamakee 9.5% 12.3% Kossuth 1.9% Sioux OBrien Clay Palo Alto Hancock Cerro Gordo Floyd Chickasaw 2.1% 1.8% 3.1% 3.7% 2.4% 2.8% 5.0% 4.4% Fayette Clayton 5.7% 13.5% Humboldt Bremer Plymouth Cherokee Buena Vista Pocahontas Wright Franklin Butler 2.0% 4.1% 3.3% 1.5% 2.0% 1.9% 2.5% 2.4% 4.6% Dubuque Black Hawk Buchanan Delaware Webster 9.1% 3.1% 2.4% 5.2% Woodbury Ida Sac Calhoun Hamilton Hardin Grundy 3.2% 6.9% 3.9% 1.7% 2.1% 3.3% 2.6% 2.5% Jackson 14.0% Jones Tama Benton Linn 6.2% Monona Crawford Carroll Greene Boone Story Marshall 5.9% 4.6% 5.6% 3.8% 3.4% 2.9% 2.5% 3.1% 4.5% 4.4% Clinton 6.1% Cedar 4.4% Harrison Iowa Shelby Audubon Guthrie Dallas Jasper Poweshiek Polk Johnson 4.0% 3.4% 7.9% 7.7% 3.3% 5.2% 8.5% 12.6% Scott 3.9% 8.3% 2.5% Muscatine 7.0% Pottawattamie Madison Warren Marion Mahaska Keokuk Washington Cass Adair 11.1% 11.0% 14.5% 11.7% 4.1% 6.3% 8.1% 7.9% 11.4% Louisa 9.0% Jefferson Mills Montgomery Adams Union Clarke Lucas Monroe Wapello Henry 3.6% 7.1% 10.6% 13.3% 15.4% 10.6% 12.3% 14.4% 10.3% 10.2% Des Moines 4.9% Van Buren Fremont Appanoose Davis Page Taylor Ringgold Decatur Wayne 1% - 4% 13.4% 13.7% 4.5% 7.6% 15.2% 13.4% 17.3% 14.8% 13.8% Lee 4% - 8% 8.4% 8% - 11% 11% - 18% Percent of Farmland* Idled, in Cover Crops, Unharvested, Failed, or Abandoned *Does not include land in building sites or woodlands.

  6. Lyon Osceola Dickinson Emmet Winnebago Worth Mitchell Howard 4.3% 2.5% 3.1% 1.6% 1.5% 2.2% Winneshiek Allamakee 3.6% 6.4% 16.6% 18.3% Kossuth 1.5% Sioux OBrien Clay Palo Alto Hancock Cerro Gordo Floyd Chickasaw 3.7% 2.3% 2.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 3.1% 5.5% Fayette Clayton 7.9% 15.0% Humboldt Bremer Plymouth Cherokee Buena Vista Pocahontas Wright Franklin Butler 0.9% 4.8% 3.7% 3.3% 1.4% 1.0% 0.7% 1.9% 3.0% Dubuque Buchanan Delaware Black Hawk Webster 20.7% 2.7% 4.0% 9.6% Woodbury Ida Sac Calhoun Hamilton Hardin Grundy 1.1% 3.9% 3.5% 2.6% 1.0% 1.0% 1.9% 1.2% Jackson 14.8% Jones Tama Benton Linn 7.7% Monona Crawford Boone Carroll Greene Story Marshall 4.9% 4.2% 6.2% 2.8% 4.3% 3.4% 2.3% 2.9% 2.1% 2.7% Clinton 4.8% Cedar 3.9% Iowa Harrison Shelby Audubon Guthrie Dallas Jasper Poweshiek Polk Johnson 2.8% 3.6% 4.7% 5.8% 3.1% 5.3% 8.1% 6.6% Scott 4.5% 10.0% 3.4% Muscatine 4.8% Warren Keokuk Washington Pottawattamie Cass Adair Madison Marion Mahaska 3.6% 11.0% 11.0% 8.5% 4.6% 5.2% 5.3% 6.1% 10.1% Louisa 3.9% Mills Montgomery Adams Union Clarke Lucas Monroe Wapello Jefferson Henry 2.9% 4.9% 18.0% 16.5% 10.5% 9.8% 8.0% 13.7% 16.7% 5.6% Des Moines 3.3% 1% - 4% Van Buren Davis Fremont Page Decatur Wayne Appanoose Taylor Ringgold 17.7% 14.2% 4% - 9% 2.0% 6.1% 15.1% 20.4% Lee 8.4% 15.9% 15.1% 7.8% 10% - 12% 14% - 21% Percent of Farmland* in Hay and Oats *Does not include land in building sites or woodlands.

  7. Lyon Osceola Dickinson Emmet Winnebago Worth Mitchell Howard 8.2% 1.9% 5.1% 5.9% 1.7% 3.0% Winneshiek Allamakee 4.7% 7.0% 16.1% 34.8% Kossuth 2.7% Sioux OBrien Clay Palo Alto Hancock Cerro Gordo Floyd Chickasaw 5.2% 5.3% 6.0% 2.9% 1.6% 3.3% 3.7% 6.9% Fayette Clayton 9.0% 18.5% Humboldt Bremer Plymouth Cherokee Buena Vista Pocahontas Wright Franklin Butler 2.3% 4.0% 10.1% 13.3% 4.0% 2.4% 1.9% 3.4% 5.1% Dubuque Buchanan Delaware Black Hawk Webster 21.1% 3.4% 5.3% 9.6% Woodbury Ida Sac Calhoun Hamilton Hardin Grundy 3.2% 12.8% 6.8% 3.9% 3.2% 2.4% 6.2% 3.1% Jackson 32.0% Jones Tama Benton Linn 15.2% Monona Crawford Boone Carroll Greene Story Marshall 10.0% 7.7% 11.8% 11.9% 10.2% 6.3% 5.3% 6.5% 4.7% 7.1% Clinton 7.6% Cedar 8.9% Iowa Harrison Shelby Audubon Guthrie Dallas Jasper Poweshiek Polk Johnson 11.5% 6.4% 8.0% 18.7% 9.5% 11.3% 12.9% 16.0% Scott 7.2% 12.0% 5.0% Muscatine 9.3% Warren Keokuk Washington Pottawattamie Cass Adair Madison Marion Mahaska 8.8% 35.0% 28.5% 21.0% 12.1% 17.5% 10.5% 13.8% 21.7% Louisa 8.7% Mills Montgomery Adams Union Clarke Lucas Monroe Wapello Jefferson Henry 6.3% 13.5% 44.1% 46.7% 23.2% 18.3% 28.5% 35.6% 45.4% 13.9% Des Moines 11.2% 2% - 5% Van Buren Davis Fremont Page Decatur Wayne Appanoose Taylor Ringgold 5% - 15% 36.1% 30.4% 8.0% 18.7% 32.8% 43.6% 25.0% 40.9% 46.9% Lee 18.9% 15% - 30% 30% - 47% Percent of Farmland* in Pasture** *Does not include land in building sites or woodlands. **Includes both woodland and rangeland pasture.

  8. Percent of Farmland in Woodlands, Houses, Ponds, Roads, and Wasteland Lyon Osceola Dickinson Emmet Winnebago Worth Mitchell Howard 5.4% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 5.6% 5.1% Winneshiek Allamakee 6.2% 8.6% 14.4% 30.2% Kossuth 4.1% Sioux OBrien Clay Palo Alto Hancock Cerro Gordo Floyd Chickasaw 4.6% 4.8% 5.1% 4.3% 3.5% 4.2% 6.0% 7.3% Fayette Clayton 10.0% 22.0% Humboldt Bremer Plymouth Cherokee Buena Vista Pocahontas Wright Franklin Butler 5.3% 7.3% 5.2% 5.7% 5.2% 4.4% 4.4% 5.3% 7.0% Dubuque Delaware Black Hawk Buchanan Webster 15.2% 6.5% 6.2% 10.0% Woodbury Ida Sac Calhoun Hamilton Hardin Grundy 5.9% 7.3% 5.8% 6.0% 4.4% 4.9% 5.4% 3.7% Jackson 18.5% Jones Tama Benton Linn 11.3% Monona Crawford Carroll Greene Boone Story Marshall 7.0% 6.8% 11.0% 9.1% 7.0% 6.3% 6.2% 8.5% 5.6% 6.3% Clinton 7.5% Cedar 8.3% Harrison Shelby Audubon Guthrie Dallas Jasper Poweshiek Iowa Polk Johnson 8.6% 5.0% 7.2% 9.5% 7.7% 7.6% 9.1% 12.4% Scott 6.8% 10.0% 5.5% Muscatine 10.9% Washington Pottawattamie Cass Madison Warren Marion Mahaska Keokuk Adair 14.5% 13.8% 12.4% 10.2% 11.9% 11.0% 6.7% 6.0% 8.6% Louisa 12.3% Mills Montgomery Adams Clarke Lucas Monroe Wapello Jefferson Union Henry 8.8% 16.2% 16.8% 7.6% 9.1% 11.0% 14.6% 21.0% 19.1% 15.2% Des Moines 12.0% Van Buren Davis Fremont Page Wayne Appanoose Taylor Ringgold Decatur Lee 20.7% 9.1% 16.6% 16.3% 9.6% 11.5% 12.1% 16.0% 10.9% 18.2% 3.5% - 6.0% 6.0% - 10.0% 10.0% - 15.0% 15.0% - 31.0%

  9. Rate of Return

  10. Capitalization Rate • 2002 land taxes • $10 land management fee • ISU Extension Estimated Costs of Production, Land Values, and Cash Rents • Government payment data from Environmental Working Group

  11. Land Compared to Dow Jones • Yearly Dow Jones Industrial dividend reported by Dow Jones • USDA/Economic Research Service rent values • ISU Extension land values • Assume $1,000 invested with returns reinvested • Land tax is only ownership cost assumed

  12. Land Expectations • ISU survey released Dec. 14, 2004 • Federal Reserve estimation; • 2% increase 3rd Quarter; 12% increase July to July • USDA/ERS estimate; • $2,200 per acre; 9.5% increase Jan. to Jan. • Chapter estimate; • 14.4% increase September to September

  13. Land Ownership Trends • Telephone survey conducted by ISU Statistical Laboratory • Data as of July 1 , 2002 • 633 useable responses, 80% response

  14. Land Rents and Rental Arrangements