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This lecture explores the process of diffusion of innovations, emphasizing that the focus is on societal adoption rather than mere invention. Defined by Rogers (1983), diffusion is the communication process through which new ideas and practices are adopted within a social system. Key concepts include innovation, communication channels, time, and social systems. The lecture delves into factors influencing adoption, decision-making processes, and the role of opinion leaders. With foundational theories and models, it sheds light on how marketers and other groups leverage diffusion research to predict and facilitate the spread of innovations.
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Lecture 13 The Diffusion of Innovations
What is Diffusion of Innovation? • It is not so much about what researchers or inventors innovate– it is more about what people adopt.
Definition of Diffusion of Innovation • “the process by which an innovation is communicatedthrough certain channels over time among the members of a social system” (Rogers 1983)
Four Basic Concepts in Diffusion of Innovation • Innovation • Idea, object, or practice that is perceived as new • Channels of Communication • Means by which info is transmitted to or within the social system • Time • Rate at which the innovation is diffused or the relative speed with which it is adopted • Social System • Individuals, organizations, or agencies that are potential adopters of the innovation
Common Scope of Diffusion Research • (1) Characteristics of an innovation which may influence its adoption • (2) Decision-making process that occurs when individuals consider adopting a new innovation • (3) The characteristics of individuals that make them likely to adopt the innovation • (4) The consequences for individuals and society of adopting the innovation • (5) Communication channels used in the adoption process
Various Early Diffusion Studies Adapted from Mahajan and Peterson (1985)
Purpose of Diffusion Models • To depict the successive increase in the number of adopters over time. • Permits predictionof the continued development of the diffusion process. • Facilitates a theoretical explanation of the dynamics of the diffusion process.
Who uses this stuff? • Marketers! • Movie studios • Political and Interest groups
Foundations of Research on Diffusion of Innovations • Gabriel Tarde (1903) • Proposed the S-shaped curve • As it turned out, study after study tended to show the exact same S-shaped curve when researchers plot the rate of adoption over time.
Foundations of Research on Diffusion of Innovations • Ryan and Gross (1943) • Categories of Adopters (relative time of adoption) • Innovators • Early adopters • Early/Late Majorities • Laggards
Opinion Leadership • Opinion leaders are key for influence and thus ability to successfully diffuse an innovation. • Opinion leaders are concentrated among the early adopters, not the innovators.
Stages of Adoption • Everett Rogers (1995) • Awareness • Interest • Evaluation • Trial • Adoption
Categorizing Adopters and Non-Adopters • Adoption: • accept and use innovation • Nonadoption: • nontrial of an innovation • Discontinuance: • rejection of an innovation after it has previously been adopted
N of users Time Epidemic Models • Based on simple examination of “spread” • Simplest version is basic exponential model • Central-source model
N of users Time Epidemic Models (continued) • Modified spread model • Diffusion works through word-of-mouth (i.e., previous users)
