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Research Math

Research Math

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Research Math

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  1. Research Math David Lamb Consultant, Target Analytics May, 2008

  2. Today’s agenda • Private company math • Public company affiliate math • Foundation math - how to read 990s • Real estate research • Philanthropy capacity

  3. Private Company Math

  4. Closely Held Stock • When a company incorporates, it issues shares, known as “outstanding stock” • The value of the company is divided evenly among the shares • “Publicly held” stock vs. “closely held” • Finding the value of public company stock is easy • Finding the value of private company stock is difficult and expensive

  5. Why value a company? • The value of a company is influenced by the reason you’re asking the question • Reasons to value a private company: • To measure progress • To sell it • To raise capital from investors • Part of a divorce settlement • For a management buyout • For estate planning • For an employee stock ownership plan • For taxation • Change the purpose of the valuation and you change the stock price • Only fundraisers ask how it affects a gift

  6. Valuation in the real world • Information typically is not available on private companies • The value of a company is not necessarily identical to the bottom line on the balance sheet • Companies with a negative cash flow can have a high value • Companies with a positive cash flow might have a modest value

  7. Valuation in the real world • To find out what a company is worth, sell it • Value is partly (sometimes mostly) subjective • Sometimes D&B provides a net worth figure • Read everything you can about your target company – it’s not just numbers

  8. Target Company • Iconic bookstore with three locations in the Denver metropolitan area • Annual sales are about $20 million per IAC Company Intelligence • Incorporated in 1973 • Report lists 5 named officers • Prospect is the CEO and founder • No % of ownership is reported

  9. Ways to measure value • Book value • Price/earnings ratio (P/E) • Discounted cash flow • Comparison to similar companies of known value • Multiple: Known value/known annual sales • Apply the multiple to target company’s sales

  10. Comparable companies • Find a similar public company • Downside: a public company is almost always valued higher than an otherwise equivalent private company would be • Find a similar private company that sold recently • Downside: the only commonly available metric is sales, and value is not always clearly tied to sales or even profit • Comparison is only method that is possible if you have no access to the financial statements and appraisals of the assets is comparable companies

  11. Comparison to public companies • Yahoo Stock Screener (http://screen.yahoo.com/stocks.html) • Parameters that can be used • Industry (SIC or NAICS) • Sales • Enter relevant info for the target company • SEC.gov company search allows SIC search • If you don’t know the SIC, check http://www.osha.gov/pls/imis/sicsearch.html • If your search turns up no companies, try replacing the right-hand numbers with zero’s: 5261 becomes 5200 • Once you know the company name, look it up on your favorite public company site (e.g. finance.yahoo.com)

  12. Comparison considerations • Market Capitalization is one good measure of public company value • Your target company value is probably considerably less, even if otherwise equivalent • Public companies tend to be much larger than their private counterparts • Ratio of annual sales to market cap provides a multiple for the relevant industry • The more examples the better • Read the profile to see if the comparison company is similar in purpose to the target • If the public company has flat or negative earnings, it may still have value

  13. Comparison to other private co.s • Business Valuation Resources (www.bvmarketdata.com) • Pratt’s Stats • Database of over 9,500 private company sales from 1990 to present • Deal price ranges from $1 million to $14.4 billion • Updated monthly with about 100 transactions added / month • $595 • Bizcomps • Database of over 9,500 private company sales from 1993 to present • 61% of the companies have gross revenues less than $500K • 18% of the companies have gross revenues over $1 million • $395 • INC. Magazine’s Ultimate Valuation Guide

  14. Inc.’s 2008 Valuation Guide Premium Zone Median Sale Price Discount Zone Median Annual Sales

  15. Inc.’s 2008 Valuation Guide Median Sale Price Median Annual Sales

  16. Inc.’s 2007 Valuation Tables

  17. BizStats Rules of Thumb http://www.bizstats.com/reports/valuation-rule-thumb.asp

  18. Business Classifieds • Bizbuysell.com • GlobalBX.com

  19. Pulling it all together • Company sales are reported to be $20 million • The one classified found for a bookstore supports a high ratio of value to sales • Inventory is unknown, but classified add suggests a possible inventory to sales ratio of 37.5% • Best guess of inventory: 37.5% x $20 MM = $7.5 MM • Alternate calculations: • Using BizStats (15% of sales + inventory) • $7.5 MM Inventory • $3.0 MM 15% of sales • $10.5 MM Total • Using Inc. Valuation Guide (43% of sales) • $8.6 MM

  20. Public Company Math

  21. The things to find • Compensation of directors • Stock holdings • Compensation of company leaders • Stock options • Other details (severance & retirement plans & more) • Current value of stock • Current stock holdings

  22. Compensation of Directors Annual Compensation of Non-Employee Directors Only non-employee directors are compensated for serving as directors of the Company. Pursuant to guidelines approved by the Board of Directors on recommendation from the Nominating Committee, for each fiscal year of service non-employee directors receive a retainer of $100,000, which may be in the form of cash or stock options, and $100,000 in equity compensation in the form of stock options. New non-employee directors first become eligible to receive the regular annual non-employee director compensation in the first full fiscal year after they join the Board of Directors. Stock options are granted under the 2005 Non-Employee Director Sub-Plan to the Starbucks Corporation 2005 Long-Term Equity Incentive Plan (the “Non-Employee Director Stock Plan”). The number of stock options granted is determined by dividing the dollar amount of compensation to be received in the form of stock options by the closing market price of the Common Stock on the grant date, multiplied by three. These stock options vest one year after the date of grant and have an exercise price equal to the closing market price of the Common Stock on the grant date. Stock options granted to non-employee directors generally cease vesting as of the date a non-employee director no longer serves on the Board. However, unvested stock options held by non-employee directors will vest in full upon a non-employee director’s death or “retirement” (generally defined as leaving the Board after attaining age 55 and at least six years of Board service).

  23. Compensation of Non-Employee Directors Fiscal 2006 Compensation of Non-Employee Directors The table below sets forth, for each non-employee director, the amount of cash compensation paid and the number of stock options received for his or her service during fiscal 2006. Non-Employee DirectorCash($)Stock Options (#)(1) Barbara Bass     0       19,724   William W. Bradley     100,000       9,862   Mellody Hobson     0       19,724   Olden Lee     0       19,724   James G. Shennan, Jr.      100,000       9,862   Javier G. Teruel     0       19,724   Myron E. Ullman, III     0       19,724   Craig E. Weatherup     0       19,724   Gregory B. Maffei(2)     0       19,724   (1)All stock options included in the table were granted on November 16, 2005, with an exercise price of $30.42 per share, and vested in full on November 16, 2006 other than with respect to Mr. Maffei, as explained below. (2)Mr. Maffei resigned from the Board of Directors in March 2006. Under the terms of the Non-Employee Director Stock Plan, the options listed in the table and granted to Mr. Maffei did not vest and were cancelled upon his resignation.

  24. Details, details Initial Stock Option Grant for New Non-Employee Directors Upon first joining the Board of Directors, non-employee directors are granted an initial stock option to acquire 30,000 shares of Common Stock under the Non-Employee Director Stock Plan. These options vest in equal annual installments over a three-year period and have an exercise price equal to the fair market value of the Common Stock on the date of grant. None of the directors in the table above was granted an initial stock option in fiscal 2006.

  25. Ownership of Common Stock The following table sets forth information concerning the beneficial ownership of Common Stock of the Company of (i) those persons known by management of the Company to own beneficially more than 5% of the Company’s outstanding Common Stock, (ii) the directors of the Company, (iii) the Named Executive Officers listed in the Summary Compensation Table on page 21 of this proxy statement, and (iv) all current directors and executive officers of the Company as a group. Information provided for Capital Research and Management Company and Sands Capital Management, LLC is based on the most recent Schedule 13G filings by those firms, each filed with the SEC on February 10, 2006. Information for all other persons is provided as of December 1, 2006. Except as otherwise noted, the beneficial owners listed have sole voting and investment power with respect to shares beneficially owned. An asterisk in the percent of class column indicates beneficial ownership of less than 1%.

  26. Beneficial Ownership of Stock Name of Beneficial OwnerBeneficial OwnershipPercent of Class(1) Capital Research and Management Company     44,788,400 (2)     5.9   Sands Capital Management, LLC   42,254,297 (3)     5.6   Howard Schultz     31,594,204 (4)     4.1   James L. Donald     2,238,824 (5)     *   Barbara Bass     662,794 (6)     *   Howard P. Behar     917,581 (7)     *   William W. Bradley     87,410 (8)     *   Mellody Hobson     40,224 (9)     *   Olden Lee     160,004 (10)     *   >>>> snip <<<<<  

  27. But it’s all in the footnotes . . . >>> snip <<< (4) Includes 14,465,264 shares subject to options exercisable within 60 days of December 1, 2006. Also includes 124,144 shares of Common Stock held by the Schultz Family Foundation as to which Mr. Schultz disclaims beneficial ownership, and 6,756,164 shares of Common Stock that remain subject to a variable prepaid forward contract between Mr. Schultz and an unaffiliated third party. Under the variable prepaid forward contract, Mr. Schultz received a cash payment in March 2001 in exchange for a promise to deliver at the maturity of the contract up to 6,756,164 shares of Common Stock (as adjusted for stock splits since March 2001) or an equivalent amount of cash, in accordance with a formula set forth in the contract. On February 17, 2004, the contract was amended to revise the formula and extend the maturity date to March 16, 2007. As more fully discussed on page 18 of this proxy statement, also includes 3,394,184 deferred stock units representing stock option gains that were deferred in 1997 into an equivalent number of deferred stock units under the Company’s 1997 Deferred Stock Plan. In the event of a stock split, the number of deferred stock units is adjusted proportionately. On November 13, 2006, Mr. Schultz elected to re-defer the distribution of these stock units into an equal number of shares of Common Stock from December 21, 2007 until the earliest to occur of (i) his termination of employment with the Company and (ii) December 21, 2012, subject to any additional deferral elections made in accordance with the terms and conditions of the 1997 Deferred Stock Plan and approved by the Compensation Committee.  (5) Includes 2,238,824 shares subject to options exercisable within 60 days of December 1, 2006.  (6) Includes 628,228 shares subject to options exercisable within 60 days of December 1, 2006. Also includes 28,000 shares held indirectly by trust and 6,566 deferred stock units under the Non-Employee Director Deferral Plan.  (7) Includes 880,000 shares subject to options exercisable within 60 days of December 1, 2006. >>> snip <<<

  28. Compensation Table Annual Compensation Long-Term Comp. -------------------------------------------- --------------------------- Other No. of Annual Securities Other Fiscal Salary Bonus Comp. Underlying Comp Name/PositionYear($)($)(1)($)(2)Options(3)($)(4) James L. Donald     2006     978,846       2,000,000       26,666       966,469       2,100   president and     2005       887,308       1,800,000       8,024       800,000       2,050   CEO 2004       832,308       1,404,000 (5)   83,611       600,000        — Howard Schultz     2006       1,190,000       2,380,000       950,521       966,469       278,224   chairman     2005       1,176,269       2,380,000       683,831       1,000,000       243,460         2004       1,179,154       2,490,00(6)     726,538       1,100,000       3,000   MartinColes     2006       629,712       825,500       11,670       120,808       46   president,     2005       607,885       786,656       6,892       100,000       300   Starbucks Coffee     2004       265,385       530,000 (7)     502,294       400,000        —   International                    

  29. Once again, it’s all in the footnotes (2)As shown in the table below, “Other Annual Compensation” for some of the Named Executive Officers includes the aggregate incremental cost to the Company of one or more of: (A) personal use by executives, their families and invited guests of Company aircraft (“Aircraft”); (B) security services (“Security”); (C) relocation and temporary housing expenses paid to the Named Executive Officer (“Relo”) >>>snip<<<

  30. Stock Option Grants No. of Securities Exercise Underlying Price per Expiration Name Options Share Date ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Donald 966,469 (1) $30.42 11/16/15 Potential Realizable Value at Assumed Annual Rates of Stock Price Appreciation Five percent ($) Ten percent ($) ------------------------------------------------------------------- 18,489,494 46,856,008

  31. And where are the details? (2)Mr. Donald’s and Mr. Schultz’s options become exercisable in one 322,157 share increment on November 16, 2006 and two 322,156 share increments on November 16, 2007 and 2008, respectively.

  32. Exercises of Options in the year in review Shares Acquired Value Name on Exercise (#) Realized ($) (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Donald 150,000 2,916,116 No. of Securities Underlying Unexer. Options at Fiscal Year End Exercisable Unexercisable ------------------------------------------------- 1,666,667 1,549,802 Value of Unexercised In-the-Money Options at FY End Exercisable Unexercisable ---------------------------------------------------------------------- $28,459,369 $11,774,513

  33. Did you notice that (1)? Yes – that one . . . (1)Value realized is calculated by subtracting the aggregate exercise price of the options exercised from the aggregate market value of the shares of Common Stock acquired on the date of exercise.

  34. Meeting your public company prospect just as she or he has left a job? Severance Arrangements None of the Company’s executive officers, including the Named Executive Officers, has a severance arrangement with the Company pursuant to which any of them would be entitled to receive a severance payment in the event he or she is terminated by the Company. As noted above, since the beginning of fiscal 2005, each of Messrs. Donald, Coles, Casey and Pace entered into a new employment letter agreement with the Company which removed his severance protection.

  35. Retirement plans The Walt Disney Company Notice of 2007 Annual Meeting and Proxy Statement The table below illustrates the total combined estimated annual benefits payable under these retirement plans to eligible salaried employees for various years of service assuming normal retirement at age 65 and assuming all years of service are after 1984 (benefits are less for service in or before 1984). The table illustrates estimated benefits payable determined on a straight-life annuity basis. There is no offset in benefits under either plan for Social Security benefits.

  36. Estimated Annual Benefits Under Retirement Average Annual Base Comp. Highest Five Consec. Yrs. 15 20 25 30 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- $250,000 $ 74,319 99,121 124,031 148,800 $1,500,000 $435,257 580,371 725,594 870,675 As of December 1, 2006, annual payments under the Disney Salaried Retirement Plan and the Amended and Restated Key Plan would be based upon an average annual compensation of $1,917,308 for Mr. Iger, $913,866 for Mr. Staggs, $786,663 for Mr. Braverman, $329,839 for Mr. Mayer and $407,712 for Ms. McCarthy. Mr. Iger has seven years, Mr. Staggs has seventeen years, Mr. Braverman has four years, Mr. Mayer has nine years and Ms. McCarthy has seven years of credited service.

  37. After the primary data are collected . . .

  38. Insider Roster

  39. Other Insider Affiliations

  40. Enough yet? There’s more. • Other spots to find informationS1, S4, Forms 3 through 5 • When your prospect is no longer with a public company • When your prospect sells her privately-held company to a public company • And . . .?

  41. Public Company Resources U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (EDGAR) www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml Tutorial, description of forms, link to regulatory actions 10K Wizard www.10kwizard.com Yahoo!Finance http://finance.yahoo.com Hoovers www.hooovers.com Big Charts http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/

  42. Foundation MathHow to read 990s

  43. How corporation and foundation giving fits into a mature nonprofit’s fund-raising plan: For more details, visit the Giving USA Foundation™ site at http://www.givingusa.org/ Gifts from corporations and foundations (16.8%±) Gifts from people - individuals & bequests (about 83.2%±) 2005

  44. Resources – how to read the 990-PF • GuideStar 990-PF tutorialhttp://www.guidestar.org/index.jsp • The Foundation Center 990-PF FAQshttp://fdncenter.org/learn/faqs/html/990pf.html • Form 4506-A: Request for Public Inspection or Copy of Exempt or Political Organization IRS Formhttp://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f4506a.pdf Tip: Go to the IRS Web site at http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f990pf.pdf Print a blank 990-PF and then highlight the lines and sections that matter to you.

  45. Types of foundations • Public charities file 990s • Private foundations file 990 PFs

  46. Year covered, contact information (including telephone number) and fair market value: p. 1

  47. Gifts and grants total:p. 1, Part I, lines 25 and 26

  48. Beginning of the year and year end assets: p. 2, Part III, lines 1 and 6

  49. Officers, directors and trustees: Part VIII, line 1 (and look at line 2, too)

  50. Application process, deadlines and more:Part XV, lines 1-5