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  1. Ecosystem Service ModelingTools for FLR Decision MakingZacChristin Kenneth Bagstad Michael Verdone Earth Economics U.S. Geological Survey Altus Impact Lab

  2. Restoration Targets and Ecosystem Services Restoration Commitments to Bonn Challenge • Restoration objectives are largely centered around social and environmental outcomes • Clear and credible information is needed to determine where restoration is most needed, guide the selection of alternative scenarios, incentivize restoration on private land, identify portfolios of restoration activities on public lands, and overcome institutional and policy bottlenecks • These leads to a demand for ex-ante modeling

  3. Types of Ecosystem Services • The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment classified ecosystem services into four categories: • Provisioning services – Food, fresh water, medicinal resources, fuel, etc… • Regulating services – Climate regulation, nutrient flows, pollination, soil retention, etc… • Supporting services – • Cultural services – Aesthetic values, recreation, science & education, spiritual & religious uses

  4. Why do we need to model Ecosystem Services? One ecosystem, many different services and benefits A water purification plant A flood control mechanism Habitat for biodiversity Food Beauty A place of worship A cure A way of life A paradise for tourism We need to anticipate the expected impacts and negotiate the tradeoffs

  5. The Ecosystem Service Modeling Landscape • The importance of ecosystem services modeling is widely recognized and the development of dedicated tools for ecosystem services modeling has been rapid • There are literally dozens of tools available to model a large variety of ecosystem services and produce an equally large variety of outputs from data tables to maps • The tools are available on a large variety of platforms, have varying levels of support, and unique data needs

  6. Overview of Ecosystem Service Modeling Tools for FLR • We reviewed 24 tools based on their ability to quantify and/or monetize ecosystem services. Our list includes: • Qualitative screening tools like ESR for IA and TESSA • Rapid-assessments tools like Co$ting Nature • Spatially explicit modeling tools like ARIES, Ensym, InVEST, LUCI, and MIMES • Valuation databases such as EVT and NAIS • Specialized tools like EcoMetrixfor site-scale quantitative analysis or SolVES for cultural ecosystem service mapping

  7. Overview of Ecosystem Service Modeling Tools for FLR • Of the 24 tools we reviewed we determined 11 have limited applicability to FLR because: • They lack an explicit connection to ecosystem service beneficiaries • Are at too early a stage of development to independently apply • Or covered a limited geographic extent

  8. Overview of Ecosystem Service Modeling Tools for FLR • Our final list contains 13 ecosystem service modeling tools that are well suited to contribute to ecosystem service analysis for Bonn Challenge countries and restoration decision making in general • The tools are flexible enough to work across geographies, ecosystem service types and decision contexts

  9. Choosing the Right Ecosystem Service Modeling Tool • There are different questions you should ask to determine which tools might be appropriate for a given application • Question 1: What is the decision context of your project • Ecosystem service impact screen • Landscape-scale modeling and mapping • Site-scale modeling • Non-monetary valuation • Monetary Valuation • Question 2: Which ecosystem services will be analyzed? • Question 3: What capacity do I have to set up and run the tool? • Technical capacity • Cost requirements • Time requirements

  10. Tool Applicability to Specific Decision Contexts

  11. Ecosystem Services Modeled by Each Tool

  12. Types of Outputs Produced by Each Tool

  13. Evaluation criteria for each tool

  14. Choosing the Right Ecosystem Service Modeling Tool We offer a simple comparative framework we call the Restoration Ecosystem Service Tool Selector (RESST)

  15. Example Application of RESST Scenario 1: In 2014, the country of Uganda committed to begin restoring the economic and ecological productivity of 2.5 million hectares of degraded land by 2020 under the Bonn Challenge as part of a broader development strategy designed to recover important ecosystem goods and services, such as water purification, food and timber production, and erosion control that are no longer provided by degraded lands. Question 1: What is the decision context of your project?Spatially prioritize restoration investments at a national level Question 2: Which ecosystem services will be analyzed?Agricultural and timber yields, erosion, water purification Question 3: Which outputs are desired?Biophysical impacts of restoration activities

  16. Example Application of RESST Based on the screening criteria the following table of applicable tools was identified This list represents a very different set of tools that is determined by the criteria we defined earlier, but there are other ways to compare tools. Alternatives include differentiating among model requirements, scale of outputs (daily vs. annual), level of information, accuracy, expertise and data required

  17. Thank You For questions or comments contact Michael Verdone at michael@altusimpactlab.com

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