Personal Computer Trends and Directions Session 8710 - August 2003 Patricia Egen Patricia Egen Consulting, LLC www.egenconsulting.com Pregen@egenconsulting.com
Agenda • Personal Computer Vendors & Sales • Storage • Monitors & DVDs • Memory • Mobility & Wireless • Security • Operating Systems • Out-there stuff • Summary
PC Vendors – Who’s on Top • A Quick Quiz: • Can you name the top five vendors in order of sales? • Number 1? • Number 2? • Number 3? • Number 4? • Number 5?
PC Vendors – Who’s on Top • Top 5 • Dell • HP • IBM • Fujitsu-Siemens • Toshiba (IDC) or NEC (Gartner) • (Gateway’s place in the hall of fame – not known at the writing of this presentation)
PC Sales • The big push is in the home market • Drivers are faster/cheaper connectivity, Digital cameras, games, email, instant messaging • By the end of 2003, there will be 100 times as many homes on ADSL than on Modems • Great advertising – “Dude, you’re getting a computer” • Over 33 million PCs were shipped worldwide during the second quarter ended June 30 - a 7.6 percent increase over last year and better than the 4.1 percent increase predicted by IDC • In the Corporate arena, notebooks are doing better than desktops • Some analysts are calling 2003 the year of the Notebook • How many of you just purchased a new one? • What were your criteria for purchase? • Corporate sales mirror the sluggish economy
CBS News report on PC Sales • “Dell and HP, which have been trading top spots over the past year, seem to be leaving their competitors behind. • They each sold more than 5.7 million units, whereas third-spot holder IBM sold about 2.1 million, according to both firms. • Dell's worldwide sales grew about 29 percent, to more than 5.9 million units in the second quarter, and its market share improved from 14.9 percent to 17.8 percent, IDC reported. • The firm credited Dell's strong international sales and its strategy of targeting specific demographics. HP, whose sales grew faster than the market rate both in the United States and abroad, captured 16.2 percent of the market, up from 15.4 percent last year, IDC said. • Hewlett-Packard merged with Compaq a year ago. The latest figures were compared with the combined Compaq and HP numbers from last year. • The United States showed 8.1 percent growth, with consumers shouldering the bulk of the purchases, IDC said. • Gartner Dataquest calculated 11.1 percent growth. • Corporate spending remained relatively low but showed signs of improvement. • Dell, with 31.1 percent of the U.S. market share, nearly surpassed the other top four vendors' combined shipments, Gartner Dataquest said. “ CBS News July 2003
PC’s by 2011 • Gartner predicts that by 2008 the typical desktop computer will have: • 4 to 8 CPUs running at 40 ghz, • 4 to 12 gigabytes of RAM, • 1.5 terabytes of storage, • 100Gbit LAN technology. • By 2011, processors will run at over 150 GHz and 6 terabytes of storage will be common.
PC Hardware • Slick cases are really big – pick a color, any color (and let me see inside) • Not a lot is going on in new “fab” development • Monies are tight at PC makers as well as in your company • No money – no cool new development
Gamers Computers – Or how to run your machine faster than it was designed • What do you notice about this picture?
MotherBoards • Not your father’s motherboards any more
Storage • Disk storage is doubling every year • New high density storage is enabling smaller storage devices • 1 GB CF Flash (fits between your fingers) • Flash cards can fit on your key rings • Cheap, transportable, mobile (a key word in the trends for tomorrow) • MP3 players • Future • Holographic and Polymer • IBM millipede
Monitors • To LCD or not to LCD • Monitors stick around longer than your cpu – so people are being frugal and putting a good investment in a monitor that will move around between computers • The decision on which device is based on price and usage • LCD’s will continue to get cheaper and will ultimately replace the standard CRT device
Video Cards • There are so many it’s hard to talk about them in one hour. • Go to www.vr-zone.com/reviews for a full page review of dozens of video cards
The DVD Saga • DVD standards – pick one • DVD-R (Digital Versatile Disc - Recordable) • A disc that is equivalent to the DVD-ROM but it can also be recorded to. • DVD-RAM (Digital Versatile Disc - Random Access Memory) • Re-writable many times. • DVD-RW (Digital Versatile Disc - Re-recordable) • Can be written to up to 1,000 times. • DVD+R (Digital Versatile Disc + Recordable) • A specification by the DVD+RW Alliance to complement the DVD+RW format. DVD+R discs can be recorded in 4.7GB capacities. These discs can only be written to once. DVD+R discs can be accessed in set top DVD players and computers equipped with DVD-ROM drives. • DVD+RW (Digital Versatile Disc + Rewritable) • A different version of a re-writable DVD-R format that is designed to be more suitable for both real-time video recording and random data recording. DVD+RW discs can be recorded in 4.7GB capacities.
Wireless • Standards are evolving to two players • Blue tooth • By 2005 will be the leader – driven by cell phones and GPS • Typically Low power and smaller • 802.11 • What’s next • Increased bandwidth greater than 11-54 mbps • Key questions – how do you keep it secure?
Security • 802.1x – wireless security standard to supercede WEP • Protector Chip – are you really who you say you are • Chips will be your first line of defense in securing cell phones, personal digital assistants, firewalls, virtual private networks, and computers. • RFID – radio frequency identification
Intel vs AMD – Part 1 • AMD chips • Atheron 32 bit chip • Atheron 64 bit chip – uniprocessor (home) • Two flavors will be available • 940 pin FX version or 754 pin normal version • The 754 is cheaper but only uses one memory channel • The 940 uses 2 channels. • What kind of socket you put them in is confusing at the moment • Most consumers will wait – Windows XP for home cannot take advantage of a 64 bit chip. • AMD hoping to take the lead from Intel with this chip – depends on convincing consumers to buy computers running this chip before there is software to support the speed • Opteron 64 bit – multiprocessor (business) • Note – an IBM xSeries computer will be one of the first users of Opteron 64 bit
Intel vs AMD – Part 2 • Intel chips • Canterwood 875 and Springdale 865 • These chipsets bring many new features to the desktop and workstation PC • The biggest innovation is standard support for Dual-Channel DDR400 (speed) memory. • Need to play with number of DIMMs in on your CPU to get best performance • Mostly for business computing – not the home market
Other Memory Types • Embedded Memory • Embedded memory technology remains an impediment to the growth of low-density discrete memory chips. This is because logic chips can now incorporate memory blocks in the megabits range. Microprocessor manufacturers, such as Intel, have developed microprocessors that have 2 Mbytes of SRAM memory within the microprocessors. This has resulted in the market for discrete SRAM chips for motherboard applications virtually disappearing and the average selling price of advanced microprocessors increasing. • CAM - Content Addressable Memory (CAM) • can now be produced at cost levels that are manageable for high-end applications - especially suited for network equipment, also offers promise in traditional applications such as PCs. • Ferroelectric RAM (FERAM) • High Density Memory • Magnetoresistive RAM (MRAM) • expected to replace flash nonvolatile technology in the long term – these memory chips will face increased competition from ferroelectric memory for cellular phone applications. In 2002, PSRAM (an embedded DRAM technology) will replace SRAM chips for cellular phone applications. • Multichip Stacked Packaged Memory • multiple types of memory die are bonded together and stacked vertically on top of each other reducing the board surface area requirements. Stacked package memory will become one of the primary types of memory chips for portable applications such as cellular phones and laptops. • PSRAM – embedded DRAM • By 2004, PSRAM also will be replaced with both ferroelectric and magnetoresistive RAM
Out There – part 1 • Fuel cells • Batteries that convert an abundant fuel like hydrogen or butane into electricity and last days versus hours • Personal Servers that fit in the palm of your hand • The Cell Phone will become more than just a device for calling people – it is becoming a palm computer – even Palm and Compaq realize that
Out There – part 2 - MRAM • MRAM – magnetic memory that will stay active even if your PC is off. PC’s will start up automatically and not have to load software – it will already be loaded (as soon as 2005) • IBM/Infineon working on a 128Kbit core made with a 0.18 micron logic-based process technology • the smallest size reported to date for MRAM. The base memory-cell size alone measures 1.4 square microns or about 20 million times smaller than the average pencil eraser top. • The goal now is to have a product demonstrator jointly developed and available in early 2004 through Altis Semiconductor, a joint venture between Armonk, N.Y.-based IBM and Munich-based Infineon.
Out There – part 3 – RFID’s • Radio Frequency Identification tags • low-power, short-range communication devices that can be embedded into everyday objects to track location, monitor security, and record the status of events or environmental conditions. • Some have local computing power, persistent storage, and communication capabilities. • Do not need line-of-sight access to be read • Can be read simultaneously when many are present • Carry more data • Can store new data from readers • Can interface with environmental sensors and digital data sources • Actually not “out there” – real applications are working today • Implementations – access badges, baggage tags, FedX packages, logistics tracking
Out There – part 4 - Pervasive & Proactive Computing • Things like: • Linux wristwatch • Low cost active badges (Oliveti) and smart pens • Tablet computers (like the UPS guy) • Sensor Nets • Who’s working on it • IBM Research Microsoft Research • Intel Research • Proactive Computing • Ubiquitous systems that anticipate your actions and act on them – like reading your lips instead of just interpreting your speech • Wearable computers
Summary Observations • Anywhere, anytime, anyone • Remember who I am and where I am • Smaller, cheaper, faster chips will mean smaller, cheaper, faster computing devices • Everything will have a computing device of some form • Look ma, no wires – voice or a glance will drive your devices • Not just for Corporate America – computers have made the mainstream
Really Out There • Instead of one box, we’ll have a multitude of devices • Some will be as small as a deck of cards or, using the example of the Linux wristwatch, wearable and easy to carry wherever you go. • Some may be embedded in clothes or under your skin • They are already doing identification modules in pets • All devices will call a mothership like the internet • To find information and share it among other devices. • The devices will respond to voice or visual (your eye movements) • They will learn your preferences and act upon them before you ask (if that’s what you want)