Assembly Polls 2017: 12 Reasons Why Fight In UP Is Between The BSP And BJP

1. Assembly polls 2017: 12 reasons why fight in UP is between the BSP and BJP This was a closely fought triangular contest, and the likeliest outcome is a hung assembly Assembly polls 2017: 12 reasons why fight in UP is between the BSP and BJP on Business Standard. This was a closely fought triangular contest, and the likeliest outcome is a hung assembly

2. Election Results 2017:While we are headed towards a hung assembly, the competition is largely between the BSP and BJP. The SP- Congress alliance has struggled to keep up. The BJP and BSP have been much more successful in terms of castes and communities they were wooing. Let me explain. 1. The BSP has been successful in consolidating the Dalit community. Even non-Jatav Dalits have by and large consolidated in favour of the BSP. Fractures (mainly among Pasis and Khatiks) in favour of the BJP are far and few. In which case, the BSP starts with a robust 20% votes. 2. The BSP’s main election plank was Dalit-Muslim unity. While both communities, and more specifically Dalit-pasmandas, could even forge an ideological and political unity, given that both communities have been at the receiving end of harsh marginalisation and assault, particularly under the Modi government. But while Mayawati made a bid for an electoral alliance, not enough was done to build movements to enable a solidarity between the two communities on the basis of shared concerns. However, over the last year one did see ‘Bhaichara Sammelans’ of Dalits and Muslims organised locally by BSP leaders, but perhaps not at the scale one would have imagined. That being said, the BSP seems to have made substantial inroads among Muslims this time. 3. If that number increases to 35-40% (very likely) then brace yourselves for a massive surprise in favour of the BSP. However, if Muslim votes in favour of the BSP are as low as 25% then they’re out of the race and will come in a poor third. The last outcome seems unlikely, though. In east UP, factors like Mukhtar Ansari joining the BSP and the Ulema Council’s support to the BSP have also helped the party in a big way. In polarised districts of west UP like Shamli, Muzaffarnagar and Bijnor, (barring a few seats in the three districts) Muslims seem to have consolidated in favour of the SP-Congress alliance. But this is definitely not a trend across the state, not even in west UP. 4. The BSP has been the most organised and disciplined party in this election, with the least amount of infighting. Moreover, having declared their candidates the first, their candidates were better prepared and began their campaign earlier than others.

3. 5. The BJP seems to have successfully consolidated sections of upper caste votes, particularly Thakurs and Rajputs. Brahmins in some districts seem to have split, though one senses the majority have still voted for the BJP. Mathura and Ghazipur are two districts I am aware of where Brahmin votes have split in favour of the BSP. I believe there are others as well. There is no clarity on how much the SP-Congress alliance has benefitted from this. Where Banias are concerned, as stated earlier, there is little or no clarity. But whatever sections may have split from the BJP have voted in favour of the BSP. 6. Sections of non-Yadav OBC’s seem to have been consolidated in favour of the BJP. However, large sections like Jats in west UP and Nishads in east UP have broken away, in favour of the Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Nishad party respectively. 7. Attempts at polarising the election towards the last couple of phases seem to have had a limited impact in favour of the BJP. My hunch is that it’s only helped consolidate the traditional ‘upper’ caste in their favour, and that too not on all seats. 8. The SP-Congress alliance lost steam as the election progressed. While Akhilesh managed to revive his sinking image after the entire family feud, he could not convert that image into a wave. 9. The SP-Congress’s consolidation of non-Yadav OBC’s seems abysmal. This will hurt them in a big way. 10. Moreover, with the BSP making a strong bid for Muslim votes, along with smaller parties like the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul Muslimeen (contesting on 38 seats) and the Peace Party also in the fray, the Muslim vote might get further splintered. Even Azam Khan, the SP’s most prominent Muslim face, seems to be on shaky ground on his Rampur seat where Tanveer Khan from BSP is giving him a very tough fight. His desperation became much too apparent when, in a rally at Faizabad, he went as far as urging Muslims to vote BJP instead of BSP. (read more...)