HR Planning • What is HR Planning? • Why is it rarely done? • What is the connection between a firm’s strategic orientation and HR planning?
How does HR Planning occur? 1. What does the environment look like? 2. What are our future personnel needs? (forecast demand) a. Judgmental • Estimates • Rule of Thumb • Delphi Technique • NGT • Brainstorming
The Nominal Group Technique A small group of 4-5 people gathers around a table. Leader identifies judgment issue and gives participants procedural instructions. Participants write down all ideas that occur to them, keeping their lists private at this point. Creativity is encouraged during this phase. Leader asks each participant to present ideas and writes them on a blackboard or flipchart, continuing until all ideas have been recorded. Participants discuss each other’s ideas, clarifying, expanding, and evaluating them as a group. Participants rank ideas privately in their own personal order and preference. The idea that ranks highest among the participants is adopted as the group’s judgment.
The Delphi Technique Leader identifies judgment issues and develops questionnaire. Prospective participants are identified and asked to cooperate. Leaders send questionnaire to willing participants, who record their judgments and recommendations and return the questionnaire. Leaders compiles summaries and reproduces participants’ responses. Leader sends the compiled list of judgment to all participants. Participants comment on each other’s ideas and propose a final judgment. Leader looks for consensus Leader accepts consensus judgment as group’s choice.
How does HR Planning occur? 1. What does the environment look like? 2. What are our future personnel needs? (forecast demand) b. Statistical • Regression
Statistical Techniques Used to Project Staffing Demand Needs Name Regression analysis Productivity ratios Description Past levels of various work load indicators, such as sales, production levels, and value added, are examined for statistical relationships with staffing levels. Where sufficiently strong relationships are found, a regression (or multiple regression) model is derived. Forecasted levels of the retained indicator(s) are entered into the resulting model and used to calculate the associated level of human resource requirements. Historical data are used to examine past levels of a productivity index (P): P = Work load / Number of People Where constant, or systematic, relationships are found, human resource requirements can be computed by diving predicted work loads by P.
Statistical Techniques Used to Project Staffing Demand Needs (cont’d) Name Personnel ratios Time series analysis Description Past personnel data are examined to determine historical relationships among the employees in various jobs or job categories. Regression analysis or productivity ratios are then used to project either total or key-group human resource requirements, and personnel ratios are used to allocated total requirements to various job categories or to estimate for non-key groups.Past staffing levels (instead of work load indicators) are used to project future human resource requirements. Past staffing levels are examined to isolate and cyclical variation, long-tem terms, and random movement. Long-term trends are then extrapolated or projected using a moving average, exponential smoothing, or regression technique.
Regression Analysis 1. Statically identify historical predictor of workforce size Example: FTEs = a + b1 sales + b2 new customers 2. Only use equations with predictors found to be statistically significant 3. Predict future HR requirements, using equation Example: (a) FTEs = 7 + .0004 sales + .02 new customers (b) Projected sales = $1,000,000 Projected new customers = 300 (c) HR requirements = 7 + 400 + 6 = 413
Determining the Relationship Between Hospital Size and Number of Nurses
How does HR Planning occur? 2. What are our future personnel needs? (demand forecast cont.) b. Statistical (cont.) • Ratio analysis
How does HR Planning occur? 3. Are resources available – internally or externally – to fill those needs? a. Internal • Replacement charts
How does HR Planning occur? 3. Are resources available – internally or externally – to fill those needs? a. Internal • Replacement charts • Promotability
How does HR Planning occur? 3. Are resources available – internally or externally – to fill those needs? a. Internal • Replacement charts • Promotability • Succession planning • Skills inventory • Transition (Markov) matrix
A Sample Transition Matrix Part A: Personnel Supply Estimated Personnel Classification in Year T + 1 (%) Classifications in Year T P M S Sr A Exit Partner .70 .30Manager .10 .80 .10Supervisor .12 .60 .28Senior .20 .55 .25Accountant .15 .65 .20 Part B. Staffing Levels Estimated Personnel Availabilities in Year T + 1 (%) Beginning Classifications in Year T Levels P M S Sr A Exit Partner 10 7 3Manager 30 3 24 3Supervisor 50 6 30 14Senior 100 20 55 25Accountant 20030 130 40 10 30 50 85 130
How does HR Planning occur? 3. Are resources available – internally or externally – to fill those needs? b. External – what do you look at? - try to determine availability of qualified labor; Surplus? Shortage?
How does HR Planning occur? 4. What should we do? - create plan of action to reconcile supply and demand a. Set objectives b. Generate alternatives
Staffing Alternatives to Deal with Employee Surpluses Source: Compliments of Dan Ward, GTE Corporation
Staffing Alternatives to Deal with Employee Shortages Source: Compliments of Dan Ward, GTE Corporation
How does HR Planning occur? 4. What should we do? - create plan of action to reconcile supply and demand a. Set objectives b. Generate alternatives c. Assess alternatives
Alternative Scheduling Options Percent Using(N = 427 companies) Alternative The following definitions were used in this survey for alternative scheduling strategies: • Part-time: A regular employee who works fewer than 35 hours per week. • Flextime: A system than enables employees to vary their schedules: Usually, the flexibility applies to starting and finishing times. • Compressed workweek: A full-week schedule (usually 40 hours) than occurs in fewer than five days, such as four 10-hour days. • Job sharing: Two or more employees split a full-time position, diving the responsibilities, and, to some degree, the compensation. • Work-at-home: A program that enables employees to complete work at home (or at a remote office closer to home) on a regular basis. It is often referred to as “flexplace” or “telecommuting.” 84%40% 23% 18% 13%
How does HR Planning occur? 4. What should we do? - create plan of action to reconcile supply and demand a. Set objectives b. Generate alternatives c. Assess alternatives d. Choose alternative – KEEP PHILOSOPHY IN MIND
How does HR Planning occur? 5. How did we do? a. Did company avoid surplus/shortage? b. Evaluate usefulness of methods used c. Goals v. Production Levels, etc.