War in The Democratic Republic of Congo

1. War in The Democratic Republic of Congo Lecture 13

2. The Logic of War in the Liberal Vision • Deteriorating Economic Conditions • Zero-Sum Politics • No Democratic Tradition of Compromise and Power Sharing • Politics Becomes a Winner Take All Affair • Conflict in Environment of Economic Deprivation Often Produces War.

3. Adding Realism • In the Absence of Prosperity and Democracy, Peace Becomes Dependent Upon Characteristics of the International System. • The Power Structure of the International System—Bipolarity vs. Multipolarity. • The Ability of International Organizations to Act as Effective Deterrents to War. • Thus, the End of the Cold War May Have Contributed to Warfare in Regions Outside of Western Europe.

4. African Stability During the Cold War • External • Colonial Interests and Involvement • Superpower Competition • Pan-African • The Organization of African Unity (OAU) Pledge: • Respect Colonial Borders • Non-interference in Domestic Politics of Other Countries • Result: Relative Stability in Africa. • Very “Mearsheimer-esque:” Cold War Conflict Imposed Stable Borders on African Nations.

5. Anarchy in Post Cold War Africa • External: Withdrawal of US and Soviet Support • Regional: Very Weak Regional Institutions • Domestic: • Economic Collapse—Negative Per Capita GDP Growth during 1980s and 1990s. • Collapse of State Authority and Transitions to New Political Regimes. • Emergence of Pervasive Conflict. • Also Very “Mearsheimer-esque:” End of the Cold War Brings About Resurgent Conflict.

7. Zaire: The Mobutu Regime • Mobutu and the Kleptocrats, 1960-1990 • US Support as Bulwark Against Socialism in Africa. • End of Cold War Ends US Financial Support. • Economic Collapse • GDP growth negative since 1989, estimated at -8.0 percent in 1992. • Collapse of Political Authority Mobutu Sese Seko Kuku Ngbendu waza Banga, or, “The all-conquering warrior who, because of his endurance and inflexible will to win, will go from conquest to conquest leaving fire in his wake”

8. The “Mobutu Effect” Per Capita Income Source: World Bank. World Development Indicators on CD-ROM

9. War in Zaire • Precipitating Causes Lie in 1994 Rwandan Conflict. • Refugees and Hutu Extremists in Zaire. • Rwanda and Uganda join Forces with Zairian Tutsis to Overthrow Mobutu

10. Install Laurent Kabila as President of Democratic Republic of Congo. • Kabila Alienates Domestic Support, and Does Not Control Hutu Extremists. • Rwanda and Uganda Begin to Support Congolese Union for Democracy (RCD) Against Kabila. Laurent Kabila

11. Angola Supports Kabila. • Involved in Civil War with UNITA • Mobutu had supported UNITA, thus Angolan Government Supports Kabila and UNITA supports the RCD

12. Namibia: Allied with Angola, thus Fighting in support of Kabila. • Zimbabwe: Rivalry with Rwanda and Uganda, thus Fighting in support of Kabila

13. 700,000 Refugees • 2 Million Dead (?) • Ceasefire, July 1999 • UN Peacekeepers Put in Place (5,537) • Fighting Continues • January 2001, Kabila Assassinated by Bodyguard • Kabila’s Son Installed as President

14. The Role of the UN • During the War, Role Restricted to Humanitarian Aid • Since the War, Involved in Peacekeeping and Peacemaking • Implications for Liberal Vision?

15. Bigger Point 1 • Collapse of the Cold War Created Anarchic Environment in Large Parts of Africa. • Lack Effective Regional Institutions. • Conducive to Balance of Power Politics. • Increasing Importance of the United Nations.

16. Bigger Point 2 • Mearsheimer Right, but for the Wrong Continent? • In the Absence of the Liberal Conditions • Prosperity • Representative Democracy • Institutions The End of the Cold War has Ushered in a Period of Anarchy in African Politics. Peace Appears to Depend Upon Ability of UN to Act as Effective Deterrent.