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The Chinese Economy in the Past Three Decades: Achievements and Problems

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  1. The Chinese Economy in the Past Three Decades:Achievements and Problems Andong Zhu Tsinghua University Beijing IDEAs Conference 2007.6

  2. Outline • Introduction • The Chinese Economy in the First Three Decades after the Revolution • The Achievements of the Chinese Economy in the Past Three decades • The Problems of the Chinese Economy in the Past Three decades • Conclusion

  3. The Chinese Economy in the First Three Decades after the Revolution • The Initial Condition • The Achievement during This Period

  4. A Family in the “Old China”

  5. 1948: Hyper-inflation in China

  6. The Achievements • Preliminarily Industrialized the Economy • Established a Independent and Comprehensive Industrial system • GDP Growth Rate Averaged at 6.68% per year during 1953-1978 • Life Expectancy increased from around 35 to about 67 years.

  7. Outline • Introduction • The Chinese Economy in the First Three Decades after the Revolution • The Achievements of the Chinese Economy in the Past Three decades • The Problems of the Chinese Economy in the Past Three decades • Conclusion

  8. The GDP Growth Rate of China and the World

  9. The Rapid Increase of GDP

  10. Outline • Introduction • The Chinese Economy in the First Three Decades after the Revolution • The Achievements of the Chinese Economy in the Past Three decades • The Problems of the Chinese Economy in the Past Three decades • Conclusion

  11. Is the China’s Economic Growth Sustainable?

  12. Pollution in the World:1999

  13. The Over-dependency on Foreign Trade

  14. The Over-dependency on Investment

  15. China’s Changing Economic Structure, 1981-2003 (%)

  16. The Changing Structure of the U.S economy, 1981-2004 (%)

  17. Decreasing Consumption Rate

  18. Income Inequality in China:1979~2004

  19. Gini Coefficient for China’s Income Distribution Sweden 25, India 32.5, United States 40.8, China 44.7, Brazil 59.1

  20. The Increasing Inequality • According to a recent study, • In urban area, the top 10% family’s income is 31 times of the bottom 10% family’s income, rather than 9 times, as some statistics show. • If we consider both the urban and rural area, the ratio is 55, rather than 21 times.

  21. Inequality and Social Development In China

  22. The Change of Life Expectancy in the World

  23. International Comparison of the Expenditure Structure on Health,2000

  24. public spending in education / GDP, compare China and selected countries

  25. International Comparison of Secondary School enrollment (%)

  26. International Comparison of the Expenditure Structure on Education:1999 Average duration of early childhood education in yearsDurée moyenne de la préscolarité en années Average duration of early childhood education in yearsDurée moyenne de la préscolarité en années ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz M + WH + F ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz University ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire Primary educationEnseignement primaire ns qz Lower secondarySecondaire 1er cycle WomenFemmes MenHommes University ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Primary educationEnseignement primaire ns qz Lower secondarySecondaire 1er cycle ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz

  27. The Excessive Savings in China: 1981-2004

  28. The over deposit Gap between deposit and loan increased from 1995 (billion)

  29. What are the Major Reasons of Inequality in China? • Monopoly? • Corruption? • Privatization? • Foreign Capital?

  30. The Laid-off/privatization Movement

  31. The Laid-off/privatization Movement

  32. Informalizing Labor Market

  33. Share in Industry Output by Ownership (%)

  34. Foreign Capital’s Share in Different Industries in China:2005

  35. Share of Different Ownership in Different Industries in China:2005

  36. Take away Profits, Leave GDPand… Pollution

  37. Pollution in the World:1999

  38. Searching a Job?Or a War?

  39. Conclusion • The growth pattern of China has to be changed, or • it will not sustain • face the dangers of re-colonizing • Foreign Capital Controls the Economy; • Locked at the low-Ladder of the World Economy • How? • Strengthen the State and Empower the Working Class

  40. EndThank You!

  41. China’s Basic Economic Statistics, 1981-2001 (percent)

  42. China’s Basic Economic Statistics, 1981-2001 (percent)