New Jersey Industry and Occupational Employment Projections: 2004-2014

1. New Jersey Industry and Occupational Employment Projections: 2004-2014

2. Employment Projections provide an analytical estimation of future employment within an industry or occupation This data can be collected and analyzed in two different ways: • By residence • By place of work These projections are by place of work.

3. Employment Projections provide an analytical estimation of future employment within an industry or occupation These projections are based on long-term trends and known future developments. Projections are not policy driven. They will show what the state’s industry and occupational profile will look like, given past trends and the changing demographic structure of the population.

4. This is the second set of projections using NAICS* Codes *North American Industry Classification System

5. NAICS replaces… the old Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) which was geared toward a manufacturing economy.

6. From 2004 to 2014, New Jersey Is Projected to Lag the Nation’s Growth for Total Employment… 14.1% 10.1% Total Employment

7. Employment in the goods-producing industries is projected to decline in New Jersey and be relatively flat for the nation. 14.1% 10.1% -8.4% -0.1% Total Employment Goods Producing

8. Fast growth is projected for the service-producing industries in both New Jersey and the nation. 17.0% 14.1% 12.8% 10.1% -8.4% -0.1% Total Employment Goods Producing Service Producing

9. Service-Producing industries are projected to account for all of the employment growth in New Jersey. Total Employment Goods Producing Service Producing

10. The same trend is expected for the nation. Total Employment Goods Producing Service Producing

11. The nation’s annual rate of growth is projected to continue to outpace that of New Jersey. Annual Growth Rate

12. GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES

13. Employment losses in the goods-producing industries will result from manufacturing declines, which offset gains in the construction sector. Goods Producing Total Manufacturing Construction

14. The manufacturing sector is projected to experience losses across the board, with these industries as the leading contributors. (6,600) (6,500) (6,000) (5,200) (4,700) (59,900)

15. Employment losses in the manufacturing sector have long been the trend in New Jersey, but the rate of decline is slowing. 726,800 456,000 338,200 278,300 -4.6% per year -2.9% -1.9% per year per year 1984 1994 2004 2014

16. Employment in construction will continue to grow, but at a much slower pace than during the construction boom of the late 1990s 183,600 165,900 129,100* 121,700 1.0% 3.1% -0.6% per year per year per year * Estimated figure based on Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)

17. SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES

18. More than 60% of all projected job growth will occur in the Health Care & Social Assistance, Professional & Business, and Trade industries. Health Care & Social Assistance Professional & Business Services Trade, Retail & Wholesale All Other Services

19. The Health Care & Social Assistance industry is projected to continue its steady and robust growth of more than 100,000 jobs every ten years. This industry added 107,500 jobs from 1994-2004. From 2004-2014, it is projected to add another 113,800 jobs.

20. Social Assistance and Ambulatory Health Care Services will account for nearly 70% of all employment growth in this industry. 113,800 25,800 52,300 *Offices of Physicians, Dentists, Outpatient Centers, and Home Health Care Employment Growth

21. The Professional & Business Services industry group is projected to further close the gap to become New Jersey’s leader in employment. *In 1994, the Trade sector accounted for 180,000 more jobs than Professional & Business Services *By 2014, the gap is projected to close to just under 80,000

22. The three industries below are projected to account for more than half of the total growth in the Professional & Business Services group. 107,800 6,400 9,500 42,300 *The employment services industry is projected to grow by more than 40% by 2014 Employment Growth

23. The Trade sector continues to be New Jersey’s largest in total employment, two-thirds of which is comprised by Retail Trade. 770,900 699,000 630,700

24. INDUSTRY RANKING TABLES

25. Top 10 Industries With the Greatest Employment Growth, 2004-2014 Ambulatory Health Care Employment Services Food Services & Drinking Places Social Assistance Rel., Grantmaking, Civic, Prof., Organizations Notice that 4 of the top 7 are related to the Health Care & Social Assistance industry Nursing/Residential Care Facilities Hospitals Food and Beverage Stores Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods Specialty Trade Contractors

26. Top 10 Industries With the Greatest Percentage Employment Growth, 2004-2014 Employment Services Social Assistance Ambulatory Health Care Rel., Grantmaking, Civic, Prof., Organizations Amusement, Gambling & Recreation Notice that 3 of the top 6 are related to the Health Care & Social Assistance industry Nursing/Residential Care Facilities Mgmt., Sci. & Tech. Consulting Building Mat. & Garden Equip. & Supplies Dlrs Food Services & Drinking Places Health & Personal Care Stores

27. Top 10 Industries With the Greatest Employment Decline, 2004-2014 Computer & Elec. Products Mfg Chemical Mfg Machinery Mfg Fabricated Metal Mfg Paper Mfg Food Mfg Notice that the only non-manufacturing industry to crack the top 10 is General Merchandise Stores Printing & Related Mfg Plastics & Rubber Products Mfg Transportation Equipment Mfg General Merchandise Stores

28. Top 10 Industries With the Greatest Percentage Employment Decline, 2004-2014 Transportation Equipment Mfg Machinery Mfg Paper Mfg Computer & Elec. Products Mfg Fabricated Metal Mfg Nonmetallic Mineral Products Mfg Notice that the entire list of the top 10 is comprised of manufacturing industries Printing & Related Mfg Plastics & Rubber Products Mfg Food Mfg Chemical Mfg

29. New Jersey Occupational Employment Projections: 2004-2014

30. 9.5% Employment Growth, 2004-2014

31. 9.5% Employment Growth, 2004-2014 • 147,970 Average Annual Job Openings, 2004-2014

32. 9.5% Employment Growth, 2004-2014 • 147,970 Average Annual Job Openings, 2004-2014 • Greater than two-thirds of these Job Openings will be “Replacements”

33. Job Openings New Jobs Jobs created by projected growth within industries. Replacements Jobs created by the need to replace workers who leave an occupation because they retire, assume family responsibilities, return to school, become ill, or some other reason.

34. Nearly 60% of all jobs in 2004 were categorized as Office, Service, or Professional occupations. Total Employment

35. Service, Professional & Management occupations are projected to have the highest percentage growth. Production

36. More than 65% of total employment growth by 2014 is projected to take place within Service and Professional occupations. Production Employment Growth

37. Average annual job openings in each occupational group are due more to replacement needs than actual growth. 12,930 29,980 36,680 19,280 23,610 5,390 4,890 Annual Average Job Openings 5,690 10,870

38. By 2014, the occupational distribution should look something like this. Notice that the top three make up almost 60% of all employment. Management/Financial 10.1% Transportation 7.8% Installation/Maintenance 3.6% Production 4.4% Professional 20.7% Construction 4.2% Office 18.0% Service 20.1% Sales 10.9%

39. Management, Business, and Financial Occupations 11.3% net growth or 48,700 jobs Led by growth in: • General and Operations Managers 12.5% Growth or 6,650 jobs • Accountants and Auditors 15.1% Growth or 5,450 jobs • Employment, Recruitment, and Placement Specialists 22.2% Growth or 1,900 jobs

40. Professional and Related Occupations 12.7% net growth or 107,500 jobs Led by growth in: • Registered Nurses 25.6% Growth or 20,550 jobs • Elementary School Teachers, except Special Education 11.6% Growth or 7,100 jobs • Preschool Teachers, except Special Education 42.1% Growth or 6,500 jobs

41. Service Occupations 17.3% net growth or 140,650 jobs Led by growth in: • Janitors & Cleaners, except Maids & Housekeepers 15.3% Growth or 13,500 jobs • Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers 18.3% Growth or 11,650 jobs • Home Health Aides 50.2% Growth!!! or 10,600 jobs

42. Sales and Related Occupations 7.9% net growth or 37,900 jobs Led by growth in: • Retail Salespersons 11.8% Growth or 15,550 jobs • Sales Representatives, Wholesale & Manufacturing 13.8% Growth or 6,000 jobs • Cashiers 5.4% Growth or 5,700 jobs

43. Office and Administrative Support Occupations 4.6% net growth or 38,250 jobs Led by growth in: • Customer Service Representatives 18.1% Growth or 10,550 jobs • Receptionists and Information Clerks 17.9% Growth or 5,750 jobs • Medical Secretaries 14.7% Growth or 5,350 jobs

44. Construction and Extraction Occupations 10.0% net growth or 17,950 jobs Led by growth in: • Carpenters 10.7% Growth or 3,600 jobs • Electricians 12.5% Growth or 2,500 jobs • Plumbers, Pipefitters & Steamfitters 16.3% Growth or 2,150 jobs

45. Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations 8.6% net growth or 13,250 jobs Led by growth in: • Automotive Service Technicians & Mechanics 12.7% Growth or 2,950 jobs • Maintenance & Repair Workers, General 9.1% Growth or 2,950 jobs • Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics & Installers 18.7% Growth or 1,750 jobs

46. Production Occupations 10.5% net decline or -24,400 jobs Largest declines in: • Sewing Machine Operators 33.8% Decline or -2,500 jobs • Cutting, Punching, & Press Machine Setters, Operators & Tenders, Metal & Plastic 28.1% Decline or -1,450 jobs • Packaging and Filling Machine Operators & Tenders 8.9% Decline or -1,400 jobs

47. Transportation and Material Moving Occupations 8.4% net growth or 28,500 jobs Led by growth in: • Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 11.6% Growth or 5,500 jobs • Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services 14.8% Growth or 5,400 jobs • Laborers and Freight, Stock & Material Movers, Hand 6.1% Growth or 5,000 jobs

48. DETAILED OCCUPATIONAL RANKINGS

49. 10 Occupations With the Greatest Employment Increase, 2004-2014 Registered Nurses Retail Salespersons Janitors & Cleaners Combined Food Preparation & Serving Worker, Incl. Fast Food Home Health Aides Excluding RNs and teachers, these are all relatively low paying jobs requiring minimal training Customer Service Representatives Waiters & Waitresses Child Care Workers Nursing Aides, Orderlies & Attendants Elementary School Teachers, except Special Education

50. 10 Occupations With the Greatest Percentage Increase, 2004-2014 Veterinary Technologists & Technicians Home Health Aides Medical Assistants Network Systems & Data Communication Analysts Preschool Teachers, Ex. Special Education Veterinary Assistants & Laboratory Animal Caretakers 6 of the top 10 are related to Health Care, including Veterinary services Personal & Home Care Aides Veterinarians Farmworkers & Laborers, Crop, Nursery & Greenhouse Interviewers, Ex. Eligibility & Loan