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Planning under Uncertainty John Vink, Chief Defence Planning, NATO C3 Agency

2. Overview. Defence PlanningPlanning SituationsTimeframeMedium-Term PlanningLong-Term PlanningCapability Based PlanningContinuumSummary. 3. Defence Planning - 1. DP DomainsForceC3ResourceLogisticsArmamentsNuclearCivil Emergency PlanningAir DefenceAir Traffic ManagementMilitary MedicalIntelligenceResearch

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Planning under Uncertainty John Vink, Chief Defence Planning, NATO C3 Agency

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    1. 1 Planning under Uncertainty John Vink, Chief Defence Planning, NATO C3 Agency

    2. 2

    3. 3 Defence Planning - 1 DP Domains Force C3 Resource Logistics Armaments Nuclear Civil Emergency Planning Air Defence Air Traffic Management Military Medical Intelligence Research & Technology Standardisation

    4. 4 Defence Planning - 2

    5. 5 Planning Situations

    6. 6 Timeframe - 1

    7. 7 Timeframe - 2

    8. 8 Process Medium-Term (1)

    9. 9 Process Medium-Term (2) Bi-SC

    10. 10

    11. 11 Process Long-Term

    12. 12 Multiple Futures The Multiple Futures Project articulates plausible future environments, aiming at identifying relevant threats and their Security & Military implications. The Multiple Futures will inform the Defence Planning Process

    13. 13 Capability Based Planning Systematic process for planning under uncertainty based on what do we need to do Requires Commonly understood vocabulary Clearly articulated assumptions & constraints Moves away from suggesting solutions too early in the process Encourages innovation Considers trade-offs between potential solutions for a capability requirement Gives greater flexibility in meeting requirements Audit trail for decision makers

    14. 14 DOTMLPFI Capability Elements Capability defined in MC 550 - MC Guidance for the Military Implementation of the CPG. Capability as the entirety of a system that delivers an output or effect. It will most likely be a complex combination of DOTMLPFI: Doctrine Organisation Training Materiel Leadership Development Personnel Facilities Interoperability

    15. 15 Capability Improvements Corps Division Brigade Company MN Tac. Units

    16. 16 Adapted DP Process Short-, Medium-, Long-Term Continuum

    17. 17

    18. 18

    19. 19 Summary Capability Based Planning Risk Assessments Future Worlds Mission Analyses Shortfall Prioritisation Challenges: Continuum Stove-pipes Acceptable Risk Single List

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