Physics/Global Studies 280 Module 5: Programs and Arsenals

1. Physics/Global Studies 280 Module 5: Programs and Arsenals • Part 1: Overview of Programs and Arsenals • Part 2: Arsenals of the NPT “Nuclear Weapon States”: The United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and China • Part 3: Arsenals of non-NPT “Nuclear Weapon States”: India, Pakistan, and Israel • Part 4: Emerging Nuclear States: North Korea and Iran

2. Module 5: Programs and Arsenals • Part 1: Overview of Programs and Arsenals

3. Overview of Programs and Arsenals • Status of Nuclear Weapon Programs

4. Overview of Programs and Arsenals • Map of ICBM Threats

5. Is there a global missile threat? 1000 km Range 5500 km

6. Reduction in Missile Numbers Cirrincione, Deadly Arsenals, 2002.

7. Missile Ranges Cirrincione, Deadly Arsenals, 2002.

8. Factors of Threat Perception Regional & global Security Disarmament Non-proliferation Arms control Threat Perception Motivation Capability Conflict dynamics Scenarios Military-technical- economic factors

9. The Missile Threat: a Survey Among Students • Questionnaireto students of three courses at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign: • A. Energy Systems (NPRE201): 22 students (Dec. 2004) • B. Introduction International Studies (LAS199): 15 students (Dec. 2004) • C. Nuclear Weapons & Arms Control (PHYS280): 38 students (March 2005) • Questions: 1. How big is the capability that this country will attack other countries with ballistic missiles in the coming 5 years? 2. How big is the motivation that this country will attack other countries with ballistic missiles in the coming 5 years? Evaluation: 1 very low, 10 very high for 12 countries (Argentina, China, Germany, India, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Japan, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, USA)

10. Total Averages of Missile Capabilities and Motivations

11. Averages Classes (A+B)/2 vs. Class C

12. 10 9 NKOR 8 NKOR ISR USA NKOR 7 PAK IRAN PAK USA IRAN IRAN ISR 6 IRAQ IND IND Motivation PAK IRAQ USA 5 IND CHI IRAQ CHI CHI RUS 4 RUS RUS JAP JAP ISR JAP 3 GER GER 2 Series1 ARG ARG Series2 GER Series3 ARG 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Capability Averages Classes A, B, C Combined Averages

13. Module 5: Programs and Arsenals • Part 2: Arsenals of the NPT “Nuclear Weapon States” • The United States, Russia, the United Kingdom,France, and China

14. US and SU-Russian Nuclear Launchers Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

15. US and SU-Russian Nuclear Warheads Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

16. US and SU-Russian Nuclear Stockpiles Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

17. U.S. Nuclear Warheads – 1 Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

18. U.S. Nuclear Warheads – 2 Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

19. U.S. Strategic Nuclear Warheads – 1 Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

20. U.S. Strategic Nuclear Warheads – 2 Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

21. U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces – 1 10 100 Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002) 510 1,150 NRDC (Jan/Feb 2005)

22. U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces – 2 48 288 336/14 Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002) NRDC (Jan/Feb 2005)

23. U.S. Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

24. Summary of U.S. Nuclear Forces NRDC (Jan/Feb 2005)

25. SU-Russian Nuclear Warheads – 1 Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

26. SU-Russian Nuclear Warheads – 2 Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

27. Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces – 1 Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

28. Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces – 2 Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

29. Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces – 3 Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

30. Russian Non-Strategic Nuclear Forces Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

31. Summary of Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces NRDC, March/April. 2005 Source: Nuclear Notebook, Russian nuclear forces 2005

32. Projected strategic warheads, 2005-2015 2005 2010 2012 2015 ICBMs 2,270 750 762 580 SLBMs 672 720 528 576 Bombers 872 866 866 866 Total 3,814 2,336 2,156 2,022 Russian Projected Strategic Warheads NRDC, March/April. 2005

34. U.K. Strategic Nuclear Forces Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

35. French Strategic Nuclear Forces Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

36. Chinese Strategic Nuclear Forces

37. Ranges of China’s Missiles

38. China’s Nuclear Infrastructure

39. Comparison of Nuclear-Weapon-States NRDC, Sept./Oct. 2003.

40. Module 5: Programs and Arsenals • Part 3: Arsenals of non-NPT “Nuclear Weapon States” • India, Pakistan, and Israel

41. India’s Nuclear and Missile Programs – 1 • India’s nuclear weapon capability — • Estimated to have produced 225–370 kg of weapons-grade plutonium • Estimated to have produced a smaller, but publicly unknown, quantity of weapons-grade uranium • This quantity of plutonium is thought to be enough for India to produce 50–90 nuclear weapons • The NRDC estimates that India has 30–35 warheads • India is thought to have the components to deploy a small number of nuclear weapons within days • No nuclear weapons are known to be deployed among active military units or deployed on missiles

42. India’s Nuclear and Missile Programs – 2 • India’s nuclear delivery capability — • India has developed several types of ballistic missiles capable of carrying and delivering a nuclear payload • Three versions of the short-range, liquid-propellant, road-mobile Prithvi have been developed — • Army (range = 150 km, payload = 500 kg) • Air Force (range = 250 km, payload = 500–750 kg) • Navy (range = 350 km, payload = 500 kg) • India has also developed and in 1999 successfully tested the medium-range Agni II, with a declared range of 2,000–2,500 km • However, fighter-bombers are thought to be the only delivery system that could be used before 2010

43. Summary of India’s NuclearDelivery Systems Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

44. Pakistan’s Nuclear and Missile Programs – 1 • Pakistan’s nuclear weapon capability — • Is estimated to have produced 585–800 kg of highly enriched uranium • May possess enough weapons-grade uranium to produce 30–50 nuclear weapons • May possess enough weapons-grade plutonium to produce 3–5 nuclear weapons • Nuclear weapons are thought to be stored in component form, with the fissile core stored separately from the non-nuclear explosives • Thought to possess enough components and material to assemble a small number of nuclear weapons in a matter of hours or days

45. Pakistan’s Nuclear and Missile Programs – 2 • Pakistan’s nuclear delivery capability — • Thought to have about 30 nuclear-capable short-range Chinese M-11 surface-to-surface missiles, which have a range of 280–300 km • Announced deployment of the Shaheen I in 2001 • Tested Ghauri I (range > 1,300 km, payload = 700 kg) • Tested Ghauri II (range = 2,000 km, payload = 850 kg) • Displayed but never tested the 2,000-km Shaheen II • Primary nuclear capable aircraft is the F-16, which can deliver a 1,000-kg bomb to a distance of 1,400 km

46. Summary of Pakistan’s Nuclear Delivery Systems Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

47. Summary of India’s and Pakistan’s Ballistic Missile Systems Source: CNN (May 2003)

49. Israel’s Nuclear and Missile Programs – 1 • Israel’s nuclear weapon capability — • Is estimated to have produced ~ 400–700 kg of weapons-grade plutonium • Is thought to have enough plutonium to fabricate ~ 100–200 nuclear weapons • Is thought to have ~ 100 fission weapons (but some sources disagree, claiming much more capability, including modern thermonuclear weapons) • Is thought to have completed its first nuclear device by late 1966 or early 1967 • Is reported to have hurriedly assembled deliverable devices just before the 1967 six-day war.

50. Israel’s Nuclear and Missile Programs – 2 • Israel’s nuclear delivery capability — • Developed the short-range, solid-propellant Jericho I (range = 500 km, payload = 500 kg) with the French and deployed it in 1973 • In 1990 deployed the medium-range, solid-propellant Jericho II (range = 1,500 km, payload = 1,000 kg), now has ~ 100 • Both missiles are land- and rail-mobile • Israel could also deliver nuclear weapons using its U.S.-supplied F-4E and F-16 aircraft • Israel could also deliver nuclear weapons using its cruise missiles (the U.S.-supplied Harpoon, range = 120 km, payload = 220 kg, or a new 1,200-km missile)