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AERO Modelling System

AERO Modelling System

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AERO Modelling System

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  1. Emissions from Aviation AERO AERO Modelling System Hans Pulles ICAO Briefing to UNFCCC SBSTA22 Bonn, May 2005

  2. Emissions from Aviation AERO Overview of AERO modelling system

  3. Emissions from Aviation AERO AERO Data • Unified database built from 4 independent databases; base year 1992 • Model system verified for 1992 and 1997/1998 (including economics) • Comparison year with UNFCCC data: 1999 • Results …………

  4. Emissions from Aviation AERO2K AERO2KAviation Emissions Inventory for 2002 and 2025 Chris Eyers ICAO Briefing to UNFCCC SBSTA22 Bonn, May 2005 DLR■Manchester Metropolitan University■NLR■DTI■Airbus France■EUROCONTROL■QinetiQ

  5. Emissions from Aviation AERO2K AERO2k Overview • An inventory of global aviation emissions for the year 2002 based on: • an aircraft movements database • aircraft fuel usage predictions, • engine emissions data. • A forecast of global aviation emissions for 2025 based on predicted aircraft movements • A tool to assess aviation emissions now and in the future DLR■Manchester Metropolitan University■NLR■DTI■Airbus France■EUROCONTROL■QinetiQ

  6. Emissions from Aviation AERO2K The AERO2k Inventory • AERO2K creates a database of global aviation emissions for the year 2002 based on: • Actual 2002 aircraft movements database • Updated aircraft fuel usage predictions based on PIANO modelling tool • Updated engine emissions data • New particulate and distance flown data • AERO2k produces a forecast of global emissions for 2025 based on predicted aircraft movements • Based on publicly available data • Uses latest available data from DLR Fuel Flow method DLR■Manchester Metropolitan University■NLR■DTI■Airbus France■EUROCONTROL■QinetiQ

  7. Emissions from Aviation AERO2K AERO2K – Data Integration DLR■Manchester Metropolitan University■NLR■DTI■Airbus France■EUROCONTROL■QinetiQ

  8. Emissions from Aviation AERO2K Allocation onto global grid • Fuel and emissions are allocated onto global grids. • The method determines length of path flown in each cell (e.g. blue line on flight path shown). • Fuel and emissions allocated accordingly. latitude longitude DLR■Manchester Metropolitan University■NLR■DTI■Airbus France■EUROCONTROL■QinetiQ

  9. Emissions from Aviation AERO2K Forecast for 2025 • Factors or methods describing: • change of fuel burn (sfc), • change of emissions characteristics, • selection of aircraft types (based on ASK & load factor), • uplift on numbers of movements • Factors specific to regions • Factors produced by UK DTI (in conjunction with Airbus) are applied within the AERO2k software tool to produce a forecast of global emissions for 2025 DLR■Manchester Metropolitan University■NLR■DTI■Airbus France■EUROCONTROL■QinetiQ

  10. Emissions from Aviation AERO2K Improvements over previous inventories • Other inventories (ANCAT/EC2, NASA, AERO, FAST, AEM, Corinair etc) exist and all have their specific application • AERO2K aims to provide the “best available” aviation emissions data, via: • Improved routing assumptions and representation of flight profiles for present day traffic • Updated and improved methodologies for determining fuel usage • New inventory parameters e.g. flown distances per grid cell per hour (for contrail impact analysis) and CO/HC and particle number emission indices DLR■Manchester Metropolitan University■NLR■DTI■Airbus France■EUROCONTROL■QinetiQ

  11. Emissions from Aviation AERO2K Applications • AERO2K software tool can be re-run or developed further to produce, for example, • selected datasets (eg national emissions) • other forecasts (eg using FESG forecast) • other base years or forecast years • comparison of data with other inventories/methodologies DLR■Manchester Metropolitan University■NLR■DTI■Airbus France■EUROCONTROL■QinetiQ

  12. Emissions from Aviation AERO2K AERO2k Overview • Gridded 4D emissions results: • 2002 inventory • 2025 forecast • Results available at: http://www.cate.mmu. ac.uk/aero2k.asp • Results by Country to follow …………….. Gridded fuel data (total mass) for one full day NOx - 2002 internal and Eastbound traffic from Europe DLR■Manchester Metropolitan University■NLR■DTI■Airbus France■EUROCONTROL■QinetiQ

  13. AERO2K