Causal Feedback Loops

1. Causal Feedback Loops

2. AIDS Orphans ( + ) (+) ( + ) Prostitution Destitution ( + ) Positive Feedback Loop (Noah Heller ENVS101 ’02)

3. (+) Experience as a foreigner (+) Acceptance of foreigners in home country (+) (Elvie Miller ENVS101 ’02)

4. Eat Poor Quality Food Feel hungry (from poor nutrition) Receive poor nutrients The Stevenson Food Cycle (or “Why We Gain Our Freshman Fifteen”) (Dan Borden ENVS101 ’02)

5. Coupled feedback e.g. ExCo fun Fun + + + Number of ExCos taken during a semester - + - Stock of ExCo credits still available towards graduation requirements (Caroline Turner ‘00)

6. Thefts in De CaféIncrease in prices at De Café (+) (+) (+) De Café is the convenient store and deli on campus run by Bon Apetit in the Student Union. The business loses thousands of dollars each month due to theft. The managers see this as a problem, but have not boosted up the security in the store. Instead, they raise the prices on the food. This makes people I know very mad to have to pay ridiculous prices for food at school. High prices are often used as a justification for stealing, which is ridiculous too because it just means that the prices will rise accordingly. This loop will continue to increase prices and thefts until the managers start to wise up and boost the security. Then maybe the prices will be able to go down with the reduction of thefts. Another phenomena with similar model formulations are giving good back rubs and getting asked to give them. (Anna Ruth ENVS340 ’02)

8. - OC Dining Options + - Quality of CDS Food and Service Number of students switching from CDS to OSCA

9. AIDS Orphans ( + ) (+) ( + ) Prostitution Destitution ( + ) Positive Feedback Loop (Noah Heller ENVS101 ’02)

10. The Oberlin College Vicious Cycle Partying (+) (+) (+) Caffeine consumption (due to work left to be done) Staying up Late (+) (Anonymous ENVS101 ’01)

11. (+) Experience as a foreigner (+) Acceptance of foreigners in home country (+) (Elvie Miller ENVS101 ’02)

12. (Chisato Tomimura ENVS340 ’02)

13. “Yet another homework causal loop” Productivity (-) (-) (-) Fatigue Volume of Work to Do (+) Physiological Load (+) (physical effect of stress, overwork) (James McConaghie ENVS101 ’00)

14. Money from Alum Development Aesthetic value Campus Development 1/ Campus Development 2/ As the development of the college increases (such as ground/building maintenance, new stylish buildings, nicer landscaping,etc.), the aesthetic value of the college and grounds increase, and when Alum visit they donate money under the assumption that the college will put it to good use on other trendy developmental ideas. This would lead to even more money being used for development/maintenance/renovation. 3/ Although it may be a minor increase in money from Alum, it would be an increase none the less, so there really wouldn’t be a tremendous, skyrocketing, snowball effect. 4/ Another example of a positive causal loop would be: if low income students would receive more financial aid, this would in turn encourage more low income students to apply, and then more financial aid would be awarded to them.

15. Quality of cooks + + Quality of meals A successful dining co-op + Co-op’s reputation + + Satisfaction of eaters

17. Student Impression of the quality of the Oberlin Review Number of students interested in writing for the Review Actual quality of writing in the Oberlin Review This is a positive feedback loop (a trend is encouraged in a cyclical cycle, but I see the current trend as a negative one (it is a decrease in the quality of journalism that is positively reinforced in this cycle).

18. Increase in number of students with car causes increase in amount of gasoline use, and that will cause increase in CO2 emission, then increase in concern for green gas effect on environment which causes increase in students protesting activities or school concerns so that pass some sort of rule or policy whatever to decrease the number of car use (hopefully).

19. The Positive Feedback Loop of Attracting Student Talent Student Talent (+) (+) (+) (+) Reputation of Oberlin (+) Grants to Students (+) (+) Grants to Oberlin

20. Dan Brody Baseball Market System + Club Payroll + + + + Ability to Sign Free Agents Quality of General Manager Fan Base + + + Team Performance + + Quality of Draft Picks + + + Team Reputation + ENVS340 ‘04 Another system with which I have little knowledge. The general logic seems good (although one might question whether money always leads to quality). Some of your loops don’t seem to be loops (e.g. top right and top left) causality needs to be completely circular for feedback. You might be seeing these as part of larger compound loops, but this is difficult to tell from the labeling.

21. Gregory Teves ENVS340 ‘04 Oberlin College Admissions Number of college applicants (+) (+) (+) Admissions Selectivity As the number of applicants increases, the selectivity of the college increases because applicants are competing for a finite number of spots. As selectivity increases, the number of applicants increases because reputation of the college increases (people have a tendency to equate quality with selectivity) and the college is seen as a more desirable place to attend. (Oberlin) College Admissions is, thus, a positive feedback loop. Yes indeed. Of course it works equally well in reverse as a downward spiral in selectivity…

22. Lyrica Hammann 2/21/04 ENVS340 ‘04 Causal Feedback Loops Amount of Water + Consumed Amount of Practice on the Fiddle - + + Amount of Thirst - + Skill at Fiddle Playing Joy from Playing the Fiddle + I suppose the key to the first loop is to develop enough skill so that the positive side of the loop has sufficient strength to drive it forward

23. Michel Dedeo ENVS340 ‘04 + Suicide bombings (+) Military attacks + In a conflict between a powerful occupier and oppressed population the guerilla tactic of suicide bombs increases military attacks by the occupier, which cause an increase in suicide bombings in retaliation. The question is, why is it that those involved in the situation don’t see this? The answer may be that those making decisions are not necessarily those suffering most directly. May also be that once you are in it is very difficult to get out.

24. ENVS340 ‘04 election of “tough on crime” politicians + + Corporate support for “tough on crime” politicians + mandatory minimum sentence Public support for “tough on crime” politicians (+) + Prison Industrial Complex (+) + + Prison Population $ from prison labor + sam merrett + Fear in Society (+) + - Chance of return - Quality of Stay Brutal….

25. ENVS101 ‘04 (+) (+) Feedback loop for productivity in Ghana (+) Skilledpersonnel Educational facilities, standard of living (+) Productivity Bedzra Edo Envs. 101. (+) Rate of literacy JP: Very nice. Clearly the functionality of this loop is dependent on external factors such as effectiveness of political system

26. ENVS101 ‘04 The beauteous cycle Hugs (+) Noah Cecil (+) (+) Love Smiles (+) JP: Cute!

27. Tess Coppieters ENVS101 ‘04 Price of recycled paper (-) (-) Demand for recycled paper (+) (+) # of mills equipped to make recycled paper JP: Good clear logic.

28. Emily Doubilet ENVS101 ‘04 Bike Theft in the town of Oberlin Though the sale of bike locks may seem to reduce bike theft in a simple negative feedback loop, it also increases theft because it leads to more broke students, which leads to more unhappy students, which leads to more bike theft. Bike locks sold (+) (-) (+) Broke students (+) Bike thefts (-) (+) (+) (+) Unhappy students JP :The two bike loops on the left are interesting. The “loop” on the right is not really a loop as you envision it because the arrows don’t go in a complete causal circle – both sides dead-end in “Unhappy students”. There IS a larger causal loop if you trace all the way around the outside arrows but it is negative and not positive. Seems to me that bike locks probably represent a fairly small fraction of total student expenditures that the strength of the causal relationship to broke students is fairly week.

29. ENVS101 ‘04 Shareef Elfiki Feedback Loop Diagram ENVS 101 17.02.2004 My Individual Concern with Political Consciousness A positive feedback loop. + + Self-Education and Social Action JP: Yes, I think this is an important one on the Oberlin campus (as you have probably noticed, it can spiral in either direction).

30. Hanna Siesel ENVS101 ‘04 (-) (-) (+) Number of fish Fishing licenses granted Fishers (+) JP: Yes, that certainly works just fine. In many regions this loop is legislatively constrained by a limit on the total number of fishing licenses granted

31. ENVS101 ‘04 Santiago Stocker Positive Feedback Loop Palestinian suicide bombings (+) (+) Israeli destruction of Palestinian homes (+) Palestinian economic destitution (+) JP: The question is, why isn’t this loop more obvious to those involved. And if it is obvious, then why does it seem to be so politically challenging to get out of it….

32. Andy Barnett 1A, Spring of 2005 Improvement, Enjoyment, and Quantity of effective practicing + Musical Skill + + Quantity of Effective Practicing Enjoyment of Music + JP: Nice feedback diagram ENVS101 ‘05

33. Joey Charboneau ENVS101 Time my roommate spends sleeping at night (-) (+) (-) Time my roommate spends sleeping during the day When my roommate stays up late and then sleeps during the next day, it becomes increasingly difficult for him to sleep at night. JP: Yes, looks like an unfortunate situation. ENVS101 ‘05

34. Andrew_DeFranco JP: Aristotle would have been amused. Feedback loop is great. ENVS101 ‘05

35. Rebecca.Derry Usability (i.e., reliability and ease) of public transportation (+) (+) (+) Number of people using public transportation Resources devoted to public transportation system (+) Note: sadly, more often than not, this loop works in a downward spiral: that is, the public transportation is totally unusable, which leads to few people using it, which leads to no resources being used to make it better (why bother if no one is using it?), which leads to it becoming even more unusable. JP: Great feedback loop. Very similar to many other urban problems. ENVS101 ‘05

36. Timmons.Erickson Causal Loop + Quality of Class Enjoyment of Teacher + + + + + + + Enjoyment of Students JP: Yes, I see this dynamic all the time. Very astute. I’m not sure that students always realize how dependent our performance is on your performance. This is part of the reason the system is so dependent on initial conditions – you get this thing cranking in one direction early and it is hard to reverse the dynamic. ENVS101 ‘05

37. Lauren Dennis Artist’s success (+) + (+) Patrons purchasing the artist’s work JP: Great feedback diagram. The problem for a new artist is, of course, getting this thing above some necessary threshold level where it actually kicks in. ENVS101 ‘05

38. Jon.Beckhardt (+) Money to promote downtown and other parts of town (+) Beauty of town + Demographic Change in Nashua, NH (+) Number of Wealthy Residents Jon: Excellent. I’m guessing that there are probably a few other interacting feedbacks involving downsides of this gentrification process. ENVS340 ‘05

39. Jen.Mellen Jen Mellen frequency of environmental crises (e.g. oil spills, toxins in a municipal water supply) - (-) + + preventative action public awareness public awareness Jen: Great. If you are looking for a place to intervene, it seems to me that the strength of all of these arrows is a function of the quality of information flow. Media and activism are clearly crucial. ENVS340 ‘05

40. (Kate Weinberger, ENVS 340) ( + ) ( - ) Production of transcription factors LHY and CCA1 Production of TOC1 protein ( - ) A Biological Feedback Loop: The Molecular Mechanism of the Central Oscillator in Arabidopsis Scientists have conducted extensive research on the plant species Arabidopsis thaliana. One particularly exciting development is the discovery of the molecular mechanism for Arabidopsis’ central oscillator, a cycle which is the basis for the organism’s Circadian rhythms. The protein TOC1 binds to the promoter region of the DNA coding for LHY, enhancing its production. When LHY levels are high, LHY and another transcription factor (CCA1) bind to the promoter region of the DNA coding for TOC1 and inhibits its production. Eventually, LHY and CCA1 degrade, allowing production of TOC1 and thus restarting the cycle. The oscillating levels of LHY/CCA1 and TOC1 provide a self-regulating clock off of which other plant cycles are based. Arabidopsis thaliana (image from http://www.kulak.ac.be/nl/KULAKAlgemeen/Natuur/) Kate: I confess that I don’t know a think about this system, but sounds plausible and pretty darn nifty to me! ENVS340 ‘05

41. Aristotle’s Levels of Causality

42. Ashley Allen ENVS 101 ‘05 Aristotle’s Levels of Causality Phenomenon: Why are there mealybugs in the OC greenhouse? Material: herbaceous plants Efficient: hungry mealybugs Formal: Many types of plants contain a sappy substance inside their leaves that mealy bugs like to consume. Final: Mealybugs, like all organisms, live to reproduce and pass on their genes through their offspring. The greenhouse and it’s resident plants provide the sustenance and warmth needed by the bugs to achieve this. JP: Nice example, I might have made the mealybugs themselves the material cause (or defined the problem slightly differently), but what you have is fine. ENVS101 ‘05

43. Emma.Bishop Aristotelian Causality Phenomenon: Why does eutrophication occur in waterways near agricultural areas? Material: fertilizer (in excess) Efficient: rain (moves fertilizer to water) Formal: farms placed near waterways Final: the human need for crops and the need of crops for fertilizer (also, perhaps the lack of knowledge about prevention) JP: Yes, good. ENVS101 ‘05

44. Joey Charboneau ENVS101 Phenomenon: Why is there litter outside? Material: garbage Efficient: the people who littered Formal: a situation in which some people find it more convenient to litter than to dispose of their trash in the proper receptacle Final: a culture in which littering is not seen as a big deal; excess packaging for the things people buy JP: Yes, very straight forward. Formal might include something about thinking as well as convenience. ENVS101 ‘05

45. ENVS101 ‘05

46. Rebecca.Derry • Aristotle’s four levels of causality • Phenomenon: Why is there so much traffic on I-695 during rush hour? • Material: cars • Efficient: people driving the cars • Formal: the immediate need for everyone to get to and from work and school • Final: a city laid out in a way that makes it impossible for most people to walk or take the bus or train. ENVS101 ‘05

47. Sarah Heady Phenomenon: Why did a physically capable student waste electricity by pressing the handicap buttons used to automatically open the front doors at Mudd? Material: the automatic doors Efficient: the student Formal: the student’s laziness Final: a society accustomed to having machines do the work for us JP: Unfortunate, but very good. ENVS101 ‘05

48. Rachel Welsh 2/15/05 • Phenomenon: Why do I always put off cleaning up my room? • Material: The stuff that is making my room messy. • Efficient: me (not cleaning up the room). • Formal: A life in which I constantly have more important things to do than clean up. • Final: A society in which we are encouraged to over book ourselves and constantly be so busy that everything that we need to do cannot possibly be done. JP: Very nice. ENVS101 ‘05

49. Jen.Mellen Question: Why do trash cans line my street’s curb on Monday nights? Material cause: Trash cans and their contents. Efficient cause: My neighbors and I produce garbage, throw it away in our trash cans and wheel them to the edge of our lawns. Formal cause: A truck comes each week to collect our wastes and transport them to the local landfill. Final cause: Ultimately, each of us has come to believe that our wastes cease to be our responsibility (at the end of the driveway) and become someone else’s (in this case BFI, a private company, though it might just as well be the City of Oberlin or some other entity with a truck and a dump). For a small monthly fee, we are accommodated in that belief. Jen: I like this! ENVS340 ‘05

50. (Kate Weinberger, ENVS 340) Aristotle’s Levels of Causality Example Phenomenon: Why is Earth’s climate changing at an unprecedented rate? Material Cause: Accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Efficient Cause: Anthropogenic combustion of fossil fuels. Formal Cause: A society structured to function on power derived from the combustion of fossil fuels. Final Cause: The inability of the human species to connect their behavior with its long-term consequences (there are probably a number of plausible final causes – and they probably change depending on who you ask!). Kate: Very nice! ENVS340 ‘05