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Great South Bay Restoration Tools

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Hard Clams. 0. 100. 200. 300. 400. 500. 600. 700. 1975. 1980. 1985. 1990. 1995. 2000. 2005. Thousands of Bushels. . Recent changes in Great South Bay. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Great South Bay Restoration Tools

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    1. Great South Bay Restoration Tools Principal Investigators: R. Cerrato, J. Collier, C. Flagg, M. Frisk, C. Gobler, D. Lonsdale, G. Lopez, S. Munch, B. Peterson, R. Wilson Graduate Students: J. Carroll, D. Duvall, C. Harrington, M. McNamara, M. Nuttall, X. Jiang, J. Pan, M. Sugeno C. Wall

    2. Recent changes in Great South Bay

    3. Many Possible Causes for Declines Causes are complex – to increase number of clams, need a tool to evaluate possibilitiesCauses are complex – to increase number of clams, need a tool to evaluate possibilities

    4. Policy options for restoring GSB Reduce nutrient input require all south shore homes to be on sewers regulate boat discharge regulation of TMDL (total max daily loading) Add clams to the system, create spawner sanctuaries Eliminate / restrict recreational landings of fish / shellfish Reduce shoreline hardening / increase saltmarsh area Plant seagrass Remove invasive species Promote harvest of blue crabs / whelks

    5. Given brief background, with complex multiple causal agents and multiple effects of clams, hope you can appreciate need for a modelling effortGiven brief background, with complex multiple causal agents and multiple effects of clams, hope you can appreciate need for a modelling effort

    6. Project Goal Provide managers and policy makers a tool for evaluating the likely success of various management strategies.

    7. Roadmap Compile all existing data on GSB Conduct experiments to fill in critical gaps in knowledge Create software to model GSB ecosystem and user interface Field studies to validate the model.

    9. Food Web Model Components

    10. Additional Benefits Examine impact of “surprises” (e.g., disease outbreak, storm created breach) Forecast impact of future development

    11. Summary There are many possible policy options for restoring GSB Currently develop a tool for evaluating potential for success of various restoration strategies Model construction underway Preliminary software expected this summer Future work will include economic evaluation of costs

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