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COMMODITY WEEKLY REPORT 06–10 Aug.2018 Trade House 426 Alok Nagar, Kanadia Main Road Near Bangali Square Indore-452001 (M.P.) India Mobile :+91-9039261444 E-mail:info@tradenivesh.in 06 –10 August 2018
COMMODITIES PREVIOUS WEEKS VALUE CHANGED MCX WEEK HIGH WEEK LOW % CHANGED GOLD (OCT.) 29956 29528 428 -1.37% SILVER (SEP.) 701 -1.79% 38437 37736 CRUDE OIL (AUG.) 250 -4.96% 4842 4592 NATURAL GAS (AUG.) 196.70 188.4 -8.3 4.15% COPPER ( AUG.) -18.75 4.15% 431 412.25 NICKEL (AUG.) 960 900.1 -59.9 7.15% LEAD (AUG.) 148.45 144.4 -4.05 2.47% ZINC (AUG.) 182.1 174.4 -7.7 3.51% ALUMINIUM (AUG.) 142.3 138.55 -3.75 2.74% 06 –10 August 2018
GOLD (OCT.) GOLD (OCT.) LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS WEEKLY WEEKLY 29600 29800 30200 BUY ABOVE 29350 OPEN 29859 R2 30181.50 30300 30550 SELL ON RISE 30050 29850 29956 HIGH R1 29979.00 29528 LOW Pivot 29753.50 CLOSE 29671 S1 29551.00 CHANGE 188 S2 29325.50 % CHANGE 0.63% FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- On Weak U.S. Data Gold Surges On Friday gold prices were higher after disappointing jobs data pushed the U.S. dollar lower. A stronger dollar and rising interest rates have weighed on gold in recent months, still remained near two-week lows. According to official data released on Friday, Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) rose by 157,000 in July. On Wednesday the Fed left interest rates unchanged, as expected, but pointed to the potential for increased rate hikes due to strong U.S. economic data . TECHNICAL VIEW:-MCX Gold last week still continued with bearish trend and close around its major support level of 29500. For upcoming week if it breached 29500 then we will continue to suggest the bearish wave up to next strong support i.e. 29100. On upward side it has important resistance of 29900 and if price maintains above this level then it can push for quite recovery from lower levels up to its next resistance of its upper key line i.e. 30300 and after breakout it may continue with bullish trend. 06 –10 August 2018
SILVER (SEP.) SILVER(SEP.) LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS WEEKLY WEEKLY 37900 38600 39300 BUY SILVER 37900 OPEN 38250 39300 38600 37900 40200 R2 SELLL ON RISE 38824.75 HIGH 38437 R1 38511.50 LOW 37736 Pivot 38123.75 CLOSE 38072 S1 37810.50 CHANGE 178 S2 37422.75 % CHANGE 0.47% FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:-The strengthening dollar looks likely to remain a significant headwind for silver this week, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest rate setting meeting, where it will probably lay the groundwork for its third rate hike this year in Septem- ber. Friday’s U.S. employment report for July will also be closely watched, amid expectations that its will point to a slight slowdown in hir- ing. Expectations for higher rates tend to be bearish for silver, which struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates rise, while a stronger U.S. currency makes gold and other dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for foreign investors . TECHNICAL VIEW:-MCX Silver last week showed sideways to down trend scenario and also able to close around its important support level of 37900. For upcoming session if it continues with bearish trend then it may breaks 37900 and goes down side towards next crucial sup- port level of 37200. On higher levels it has resistance level of 38800 and if price breaks this level then it may push for some recovery and it can also test next important resistance level of 39300 and trend may also change. 06 –10 August 2018
CRUDE OIL (AUG.) CRUDE (AUG.) LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS WEEKLY WEEKLY WEEKLY WEEKLY 4600 4700 4450 BUY ON DIPS 4800 OPEN 4709 4957.25 R2 4890 4790 4940 SELL ON RISE 4690 HIGH 4842 4822.50 R1 LOW 4592 4707.25 Pivot CLOSE 4686 4572.50 S1 CHANGE 23 4457.25 S2 % CHANGE 0.49% FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:-Oil Prices Settle Lower on Fears Trade War Could Hurt Demand :-On Friday crude oil crude oil prices settled lower, as concerns about global demand growth in the wake of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions kept a lid on gains overshadow- ing data showing the number of U.S. rigs drilling for oil fell. Crude Oil prices attempted to pare losses on the back of the upbeat rig count data, but ultimately settled in lower as earlier losses from fears that a trade war between the China and U.S.- one the largest buyers of American crude – would stifle demand. On Friday Oilfield services firm Baker Hughes reported that the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs in operation fell by 2 to 861, pointing to tightening U.S. output. TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX Crude oil last week showed sideways to downward side movement and close around its major support as well as its lower key line of 4600. For upcoming session it may continue to decline to test 4500 levels and if it breaks this level then we will continue to suggest down trend. On higher levels. 06 –10 August 2018
COPPER (AUG) COPPER (AUG) LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS WEEKLY WEEKLY BUY ON DIPS 425 435 400 415 OPEN 424.55 440.46 R2 SELL ON RISE 435 425 460 445 HIGH 431 431.18 R1 LOW 412.25 421.71 Pivot CLOSE 419.05 412.43 S1 CHANGE 5.5 402.96 S2 % CHANGE 1.30% FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:-Mostly Higher Metal Prices as Subdued Jobs Report Pressures Dollar :-On Friday Metal prices were mostly higher as fears the latest twist in the U.S.-China trade saga may lead to a full-blown trade war were offset by weakness in the dollar. On weakened the dollar weakened on concerns that the U.S.-China tit-for-tat trade spat was headed for full-blown trade war after China hit back against President Trump\'s recent threat to impose harsher trade restrictions on good imported from China. Copper prices rose 0.79% to $2.76, while zinc prices rose 1.62% at 2,606.50 . TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX Copper last week showed bearish movement after recovery and breached its major support level of 420. For upcoming period it may declines for tests its major support level of 410 and after that bearish trend will continue. On upward side it has strong resistance of 430 and if price maintains above this level then it can take some recovery and price may also goes upside up to next important resistance level of 440 and after that 450 will be next resistance 06 –10 August 2018
STATUS OF OUR LAST WEEK RECOMMENDATIONS ( 30 July-03 Aug.2018) PROFIT/LOSS STATUS RECOMMENDATIONS BUY GOLD ABOVE 29800 TGT 30000,30200 SL BELOW 29500 0.00 NOT EXEUTED SELL GOLD BELOW 30450 TGT-30250,30050 SL ABOVE-30750 0.00 NOT EXEUTED BUY SILVER BY ABOVE 39350 TGT 39850,40350 SL BELOW 38650 0.00 NOT EXEUTED SELL SILVER BELOW 39900 TGT-37400,38900 SL ABOVE-40600 0.00 NOT EXEUTED BUY CRUDEOIL BUY ON DIPS 4500 TGT 4600,4700 SL BELOW 4350 0.00 NOT EXEUTED CRUDEOIL SELL ON RISE 4890 TGT 4790,4690 SL ABOVE 4940 0.00 NOT EXEUTED 1ST TGT ALMOST ACHIEVED BUY COPPER BUY ON DIPS 418 TGT 428,438 SL BELOW 403 4400 COPPER SELL ON RISE 445 TGT 435,425 SL ABOVE 460 0.00 NOT EXEUTED TOTAL P&L 4400 06 –10 August 2018
ECONOMIC CALENDER Time Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous Monday, August 6, 2018 19:30 USD CB Employment Trends Index (Jul) 108.9 Tuesday, August 7, 2018 19:30 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Jun) 6.638M Wednesday, August 8, 2018 Thursday, August 9, 2018 18:00 USD Core PPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.30% 0.30% 18:00 USD Core PPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.60% 2.80% 18:00 USD PPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.30% 0.30% 18:00 USD PPI (YoY) (Jul) 3.20% 3.40% 19:30 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Jun) Friday, August 10, 2018 18:00 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.20% 0.20% 18:00 USD Core CPI Index (Jul) 257.31 18:00 USD CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.20% 0.10% 18:00 USD Real Earnings (MoM) (Jul) 0.20% 0.10% 06 –10 August 2018
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