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Office hours MWF 11-12 Also, by appointment First assignment

Office hours MWF 11-12 Also, by appointment First assignment. Questions?. The Big Picture. But still really complicated. It’s not rocket science. Intuition in Population Ecology. R. Chaney, Missoulian , 9/25/11

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Office hours MWF 11-12 Also, by appointment First assignment

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  1. Office hours MWF 11-12 • Also, by appointment • First assignment

  2. Questions?

  3. The Big Picture

  4. But still really complicated It’s not rocket science

  5. Intuition in Population Ecology R. Chaney, Missoulian, 9/25/11 http://missoulian.com/news/local/article_a7e8ee72-e730-11e0-96c6-001cc4c03286.html

  6. “Jay Mallonee had a simple question.If you have 497 wolves in January 2009, kill 280 of them, and add back 166 new pups, does it add up to 524 wolves in December 2009? Or do you get 446? 497 – 280 + 166 = 383 “In 2009, 141 wolves showed up in addition to the pups born,” Mallonee said. “Where did that number come from? There’s no justification for it. They just added it to the total wolves for the year. So 27 percent of your total came from nowhere.”” • http://missoulian.com/news/local/article_a7e8ee72-e730-11e0-96c6-001cc4c03286.html

  7. MTFWP: “Our counts are not perfect.... We can’t always document why a pack was six (members) one year and 10 the next year. But the end-of-the-year number is every wolf we know about and can document.” http://missoulian.com/news/local/article_a7e8ee72-e730-11e0-96c6-001cc4c03286.html#ixzz1jvj6FqSp

  8. On his “Lobo Watch” website, Bridges recently claimed to have personally seen 16 wolves in the past year.“If one person can physically see that many wolves while traveling a state the size of Montana,” Bridges wrote, “there are a heck of a lot more wolves here than the ‘at least’ number that Fish, Wildlife and Parks is now touting.” http://missoulian.com/news/local/article_a7e8ee72-e730-11e0-96c6-001cc4c03286.html#ixzz1jvjqlmMj

  9. Is that reliable knowledge? • Retired FWP deputy director: “Wildlife management, whether you’re talking about wolf or deer or any other species, is as much art as science,” Smith said. “You use the best information you have available, monitoring results and adapting based on what you see.”

  10. Missoulian, 7/11/13, Eve Byron

  11. “Ken McDonald, chief of the FWP Wildlife Bureau, said they received 24,576 comments on the wolf season proposals.” • “Concerns that allowing one person to harvest up to five wolves near Yellowstone would hurt the park’s population. • That harvesting wolves will have a negative-value economy because tourists no longer will be able to view them. • People who oppose hunting, trapping or other types of harvest because of wolves’ value in the ecosystem. • The need for more management due to livestock losses and impacts to big-game populations. • Making sure the state retains management of wolves and treats them like other wildlife. • That the harvest wasn’t liberal enough. • General pros and cons of trapping.

  12. Intuition isn’t good enough! • Must understand biological processes • Must obtain reliable information • Data and Analyses

  13. First, let’s figure out how we got here so what Do we do?

  14. History of Population Ecology • Massive population declines

  15. History of Population Ecology • Massive population declines • Insect pests (Agriculture)

  16. History of Population Ecology • Massive population declines • Insect pests • Economic factors require an understanding of population processes

  17. History of Population Ecology • Massive population declines • Insect pests • Economic factors require an understanding of population processes • 1880’s – US government • US Commission of Fish & Fisheries • Division of Economic Ornithology and Mammology • Division of Biological Survey

  18. The guts of wildlife population ecology (back at least 100 yrs) Intuition alone Didn’t cut it Management Problems Population Ecology Genetics Demography (#s, survival, repro., etc.) Math modeling Field work Natural history Basic / Theoretical Ecology … All of which leads to unexpected answers that intuition would not predict!

  19. Humans as an Example Population Processes

  20. Took 10,000 years to increase by 1/4 billion; by 1968 same increase/4 years

  21. Unexpected population changes

  22. Occurs because of the age structure of a population. Not all individuals are equal!!! Momentum

  23. Stationary Population Even age distribution Not too heavy in either tail

  24. Increasing Population Lots of babies and highly productive younger ages

  25. ? Decreasing Increasing Stable

  26. Age at first child-bearing • Increase by 2.5 years • Human population would decrease by 0.6 Billion over the next 100 years • Increase by 5 years • Decrease by 1.2 Billion

  27. Biological Diversity

  28. Any guesses? How Many species Exist?

  29. Described species, observational bias?

  30. Extinction Rates

  31. Current extinctin rate • Recent bird and mammal extinctions • 180 in last 400 years • ~0.5 extinctions per year

  32. Background Rate • Average species life span ~10 Million years • 15,000 birds & mammals described • 0.0015 = 15K/10M species per year • If 1M year life span then 0.015

  33. Comparison • Current: 0.5 species/year • Background: 0.015-0.0015 species/year • 33-333 x higher rate of extinction

  34. Sustainable Harvest

  35. Harvest can promote conservation • Recall from earlier • Population Ecology • Genetics • Demography (#s, survival, repro., etc.) • Math modeling • Field work • Natural history

  36. Next: reliable Knowledge

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