1 / 9

Chapter Five

Chapter Five. 5.1 Probability in our Daily Lives. What is Random?. Which of these list is a “random” list of results when flipping a fair coin 10 times? A) T H T H T H T H T H B) T T H T H T T H H T C) H H H H H H H H H Answer: D) All of the above!. Probability:.

abner
Télécharger la présentation

Chapter Five

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Chapter Five 5.1 Probability in our Daily Lives

  2. What is Random? • Which of these list is a “random” list of results when flipping a fair coin 10 times? • A) T H T H T H T H T H • B) T T H T H T T H H T • C) H HHHHHHHH • Answer: D) All of the above!

  3. Probability: • With a small number of trials the outcome of random events can vary widely from what we expect them to be. • Examples: • Coin Flips • Winning Streaks • Others

  4. Probability: • However with a Large number of event, Called Trials, the proportion of times the event occurs will become more predictable. • Examples: • Casino games • Others

  5. Law of Large Numbers: • With a randomized experiment, the probability of a particular outcome is the proportion of times that outcome would occur in a long run of observations. • Outcome: The result of a specific trial. • Long run: Very large, often theoretically large, number of trials.

  6. Independence: • We are going to try a few coin flips: • Flip One: Tails • Flip Two: Heads • Flip Three: Heads • Flip Four: Heads • Flip Five: Heads • Flip six: Heads • No matter what happened before the odds will always be 50::50.

  7. Independent Trials: • Different trials of a random phenomenon are independent if the outcome of any one trial is not effected by the outcome of any other trial. Independent Examples: Dependent Examples:

  8. Finding Probabilities: • 1) Logic, symmetry, structure. • Best for simple well understood situations. • 2) Sample trials. • Good for complex situations we can model.

  9. Next Time Finding Probabilities. “What is the chance of rolling at least one 6 on six roles?”

More Related