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Leon Ntziachristos Dimitrios Gkatzoflias Charis Kouridis Giorgos Mellios Savvas Geivanidis Zissis Samaras

Leon Ntziachristos Dimitrios Gkatzoflias Charis Kouridis Giorgos Mellios Savvas Geivanidis Zissis Samaras. COPERT 4. Copenhagen, 2008-06-19. Contents. Background & History Users and Uses Methodology and Comparison with the Guidebook New Elements compared to Spring/Summer 2007

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Leon Ntziachristos Dimitrios Gkatzoflias Charis Kouridis Giorgos Mellios Savvas Geivanidis Zissis Samaras

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  1. Leon Ntziachristos Dimitrios Gkatzoflias Charis KouridisGiorgos MelliosSavvas GeivanidisZissis Samaras COPERT 4 Copenhagen, 2008-06-19

  2. Contents • Background & History • Users and Uses • Methodology and Comparison with the Guidebook • New Elements compared to Spring/Summer 2007 • Activity data (results of the Fleets project) • Important, less important data • Exhaust PM and airborne particle emission factors • Non-exhaust PM

  3. Background & History

  4. Status of COPERT – Administrative Info • The name stands for COmputer Programme to calculate Emissions from Road Transport • Now in its COPERT 4 Version (fourth update of the original COPERT 85) • It incorporates results of several research and policy assessment projects • It is basically funded by the European Environment Agency through the ETC budget • It is scientifically and technically supported by the Lab of Applied Thermodynamics • It has recently attracted much attention from the Joint Research Centre in Ispra who are willing to support its further development

  5. Status of COPERT – Technical Info • Calculates emissions of all (important) pollutants from road transport • Covers all (important) vehicle classes • Can be applied in all European countries and in several Asian ones • Can be used to produce total emission estimates from 1970 to 2020 (up to 2030 in TREMOVE) • Provides a user-friendly (MS-Office like) GUI to introduce and view data

  6. History - Early Generations

  7. History - COPERT II and III • COPERT II was the first one with a GUI, built on MS Access 2 (1996). It provided emission factors up to Euro 1 • COPERT III was based on menus, similar to MS Office (2000) and it was built on VBA for MS Access 97. Compared to version II: • New hot emission factors for Euro 1 passenger cars • New reduction factors over Euro 1 according to AutoOil • Impact on emissions from2000, 2005 fuel qualities • Cold-start methodology for post Euro 1 PCs • Emission degradation due to mileage • Effect of leaded fuel ban in Europe • Alternative evaporation methodology • Detailed NMVOC speciation (PAHs, POPs, Dioxins and Furans) • Updated hot emission factors for non regulated pollutants

  8. History - COPERT 4 • COPERT 4 is the ‘official’ version since Nov. 2006. Main differences with Copert III include: • Software-wise • Possibility for time-series in one file • Possibility of more than one scenarios in one file • Enhanced import/export capabilities (mainly Excel) • Configuration of fleet (local/regional vehicle technologies) • Data can be changed at methodological level (emission functions) • Methodology-wise • Hot EFs for PCs and PTWs at post Euro 1 level • Hybrid vehicle fuel consumption and emission factors • N2O/NH3 Emission Factors for PCs and LDVs • Particulate Matter and airborne particle emission factors • Non-exhaust PM • New evaporation methodology • New corrections for emission degradation due to mileage • HDV methodology (emission factors, load factors, road-gradient

  9. Uses & Users

  10. COPERT Usage TERM STEERS(CONCAWE) Auto Oil II • Auto - Oil II: Forecast scenarios on behalf of ACEA to estimate emission evolution up to 2015 • EMEP/CORINAIR: COPERT methodology is the road transport and off-road machinery emission chapter in the EMEP/CORINAIR Emission Inventory Guidebook • EEA Activities: National and Central Estimates for Air Emissions from Road Transport • TERM : Transport and Environment Reporting Mechanism (EEA) • TRENDS: Development of a Database system for the Calculation of Indicators of Environmental Pressure Caused by Transport (DG TrEn study) supported by EEA ACEA TREMOVE COPERT TRENDS EMEP Guidebook National Inventories Individual Use

  11. Field of applications - National level

  12. Field of Applications – Literature 1(2) Evaluation of COPERT Robin Smit, Muriel Poelman, Jeroen Schrijver, Improved road traffic emission inventories by adding mean speed distributions, Atmospheric Environment, Volume 42, Issue 5, February 2008, Pages 916-926. Fabio Murena, Giuseppe Favale, Continuous monitoring of carbon monoxide in a deep street canyon, Atmospheric Environment, Volume 41, Issue 12, April 2007, Pages 2620-2629. Spyros P. Karakitsios, Vasileios K. Delis, Pavlos A. Kassomenos, Georgios A. Pilidis, Contribution to ambient benzene concentrations in the vicinity of petrol stations: Estimation of the associated health risk, Atmospheric Environment, Volume 41, March 2007, Pages 1889-1902. Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Stefano Tarantola, Andrea Saltelli, Debora Gatelli, Uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis of road transport emission estimates, Atmospheric Environment, Volume 38, Contains Special Issue section on Measuring the composition of Particulate Matter in the EU, December 2004, Pages 6609-6620. M. Ekstrom, A. Sjodin, K. Andreasson, Evaluation of the COPERT III emission model with on-road optical remote sensing measurements, Atmospheric Environment, Volume 38, Contains Special Issue section on Measuring the composition of Particulate Matter in the EU, December 2004, Pages 6631-6641. M. Pujadas, L. Nunez, J. Plaza, J. C. Bezares, J. M. Fernandez, Comparison between experimental and calculated vehicle idle emission factors for Madrid fleet, Science of The Total Environment, Volumes 334-335, Highway and Urban Pollution, December 2004, Pages 133-140. R. Smit, A.L. Brown, Y.C. Chan, Do air pollution emissions and fuel consumption models for roadways include the effects of congestion in the roadway traffic flow?, Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 23, October-November 2008, Pages 1262-1270. Robert Joumard, Michel Andre, Robert Vidon, Patrick Tassel, Characterizing real unit emissions for light duty goods vehicles, Atmospheric Environment, Volume 37, Issue 37, 11th International Symposium, Transport and Air Pollution, December 2003, Pages 5217-5225. Morten Winther, Petrol passenger car emissions calculated with different emission models, The Science of The Total Environment, Volume 224, Issues 1-3, 11 December 1998, Pages 149-160.

  13. Field of Applications – Literature 2 Application Leonidas Ntziachristos, Marina Kousoulidou, Giorgos Mellios, Zissis Samaras, Road-transport emission projections to 2020 in European Urban environments, Atmospheric Environment, October 2008, accepted. Rajiv Ganguly, Brian M. Broderick, Performance evaluation and sensitivity analysis of the general finite line source model for CO concentrations adjacent to motorways: A note, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 13, May 2008, Pages 198-205. Hao Cai, Shaodong Xie, Estimation of vehicular emission inventories in China from 1980 to 2005, Atmospheric Environment, Volume 41, December 2007, Pages 8963-8979. B.M. Broderick, R.T. O'Donoghue, Spatial variation of roadside C2-C6 hydrocarbon concentrations during low wind speeds: Validation of CALINE4 and COPERT III modelling, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 12, December 2007, Pages 537-547. Seref Soylu, Estimation of Turkish road transport emissions, Energy Policy, Volume 35, Issue 8, Pages 4088-4094. R. Bellasio, R. Bianconi, G. Corda, P. Cucca, Emission inventory for the road transport sector in Sardinia (Italy), Atmospheric Environment, Volume 41, February 2007, Pages 677-691. Pavlos Kassomenos, Spyros Karakitsios, Costas Papaloukas, Estimation of daily traffic emissions in a South-European urban agglomeration during a workday. Evaluation of several 'what if' scenarios, Science of The Total Environment, Volume 370, November 2006, Pages 480-490. G. Lonati, M. Giugliano, S. Cernuschi, The role of traffic emissions from weekends' and weekdays' fine PM data in Milan, Atmospheric Environment, Volume 40, Issue 31, 13th International Symposium on Transport and Air Pollution (TAP-2004), October 2006, Pages 5998-6011. R. Berkowicz, M. Winther, M. Ketzel, Traffic pollution modelling and emission data, Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 21, Issue 4. Jose M. Buron, Francisco Aparicio, Oscar Izquierdo, Alvaro Gomez, Ignacio Lopez, Estimation of the input data for the prediction of road transportation emissions in Spain from 2000 to 2010 considering several scenarios, Atmospheric Environment, Volume 39, Pages 5585-5596. Jose M. Buron, Jose M. Lopez, Francisco Aparicio, Miguel A. Martin, Alejandro Garcia, Estimation of road transportation emissions in Spain from 1988 to 1999 using COPERT III program, Atmospheric Environment Volume 38, February 2004, Pages 715-724. Roberto M. Corvalan, David Vargas, Experimental analysis of emission deterioration factors for light duty catalytic vehicles Case study: Santiago, Chile, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment Volume 8, July 2003, Pages 315-322. Salvatore Saija, Daniela Romano, A methodology for the estimation of road transport air emissions in urban areas of Italy, Atmospheric Environment Volume 36, Issue 34, November 2002, Pages 5377-5383. C. Mensink, I. De Vlieger, J. Nys, An urban transport emission model for the Antwerp area, Atmospheric Environment, Volume 34, Issue 27, 2000, Pages 4595-4602.

  14. Notes: Information in this presentation collected from people that downloaded COPERT 4 in the period Jun 2006 – Nov 2007 In total, 1131 individual downloads (without doubles) were registered The registration is only for people that have actually downloaded COPERT, not just visiting the site. COPERT 4Statistics The following form needs to be filled by users every time COPERT 4 is downloaded (example with artificial data is given). User's info: Name: John Smith Country: Italy E-mail: John@Smith.edu Organization: University of Emissions Found out from: EEA Usage: Calculate pollutants emissions The following charts were produced by processing the information contained in these forms

  15. Continent Distribution

  16. Distribution of users from Europe

  17. Distribution of users from Africa

  18. Distribution of users from Asia

  19. Distribution of users from America

  20. Monthly Distribution of Downloads

  21. Daily Distribution of Downloads

  22. User Affiliation • Private sector includes consultants, construction companies, emission and transport research, etc. • International organizations include fuel, insurance and transport companies and authorities • Local authorities mainly include regional environmental offices

  23. Applications • Academic use is for lectures, courses, theses • Evaluation / research : General application not specified in more detail by the users • Emissions / emission factors: Application on particular studies necessitating total estimates or just derivation of emission factors

  24. Summary of Copert (III) application – 1(3) • There is a great interest for national inventories • Requires simplicity in interface and limited input from the user • There is a great interest for GHGs emissions • They require a link to higher-level software (i.e. IPCC tables, CollectER, etc.) • Several new MSs and NIS countries still consider that input data are difficult to collect • How to allocate technology classes • How to estimate mileage and road shares • Sometimes use “rule of thumb” methods of questionable quality

  25. Summary of Copert (III) application – 2(3) • Several “advanced” countries hesitate using a common methodology • Have developed own tools and are familiar with • Trust own methods provide more accurate results than a generic model • Politics and priorities may also play a role As a result: • Countries’ absolute contribution may be misjudged • Time-series reporting is less uncertain • Introduction of a new model will require re-estimation in time series • Such a model is a very elegant tool for centralised emission estimates

  26. Summary of Copert (III) application - 3 • Number of specialised uses is rather infinite • In South Africa, it has been applied to a road 550 km between Durban and East London. Problem was level of maintenance • In Chile and Mexico, it is used for urban inventories in high altitude • Eurocontrol considers its use for estimating road transport contribution to local air quality in airport areas • Particular cases (Greek taxis, small vehicle categories in Italy < 800 cc, technology classes in Eastern Europe, etc.)

  27. Methodology and Comparison to the Guidebook

  28. Pollutants – 1(2) Pollutants for which a detailed methodology exists, based on specific emission factors Pollutants which are estimated based on fuel consumption

  29. Pollutants - 2 Pollutants for which a simplified methodology is applied, mainly due to the absence of detailed data Pollutants which are derived as a fraction of total NMVOC emissions.

  30. General Concept for Exhaust Emissions/Consumption ECOLD [g/veh] =βx M [km] x EFHOT [g/km] x (eCOLD/eHOT-1) EHOT [g/veh] = M [km] x EFHOT [g/km] β= lCOLD/lTOTAL

  31. What are exhaust emissions dependent on? • Activity • Number of vehicles [veh.] • Distance travelled [km/period of inventory] • Hot Emissions • Technology / Emission Standard • Mean travelling speed [km/h] • Cold Emissions • Technology / Emission Standard • Mean travelling speed [km/h] • Ambient temperature [Celsius] • Mean trip distance [km]

  32. Non-exhaust emissions (evaporation) Breathing Losses Canister Vent Fuel Line Vapour Liquid Engine Fuel Tank Permeation / Leakages • Mechanisms causing evaporation emissions • Diurnal emissions • Hot soak emissions • Running losses Only relevant for Gasoline! Parked vehicle Engine running

  33. What is evaporation dependant on • Vehicle technology • Tank (vehicle) size • Canister (vehicle) size • Vehicle mileage (adsorption potential) • Temperature variation • Fuel vapour pressure (kPa) • Fuel tank fill level • Parking time distribution • Trip duration

  34. Non – Exhaust PM • Particulate Matter due to road transport is also produced by: • Tyre abrasion • Brake abrasion • Road wear • Emission rates depend on: • Vehicle category (car, truck, motorcycle) • Number of axles/wheels (trucks) • Vehicle load • Vehicle speed

  35. Vehicle Categories – Heavy Duty Vehicles

  36. Vehicle Categories – Rigid Trucks (Lorries)

  37. Vehicle Categories – Articulated Vehicles = + Semi-Trailer Tractor

  38. New Elements(Compared to Spring/Summer 2007) COPERT 4 VX.Y X… Methodology update Y… Software update

  39. COPERT 4 V4.0 – October 2007 • Consistent with the following EMEP/CORINAIR Guidebook chapters: • B710: Road Transport (Activities 070100 – 070500) Ver. 6.0 • B760: Fuel Evaporation (Activity 070600) Ver 2.1 • Methodology issues added/updated in this version: • Emissions from CNG Buses • Emissions with use of Biodiesel • Distinction of primary NOx emissions to NO2 and NO • Emission factors of Euro 4 Diesel Passenger Cars • Reductions for future emission standards Euro 5, Euro 6 and Euro V, Euro VI • Revised CO2 calculation equations (biofuels and alternative fuels) • Revised CH4 emission factors • Corrected N2O and NH3 emission factors • Revised calculation algorithm for CH4, N2O and NH3 hot/cold emissions

  40. COPERT 4 Version 5.0 - December 2007 • Consistent with the following EMEP/CORINAIR Guidebook chapters: • B710: Road Transport (Activities 070100 – 070500) Ver. 6.0 with modified N2O emission factors for HDV • B760: Fuel Evaporation (Activity 070600) Ver 3.0 • B770: Road vehicle tyre and break wear (Activity 070700) Ver 1.0 • Methodology issues added/updated in this version: • Determination of the fraction of Elemental and Organic Carbon in exhaust PM • New methodology to calculate evaporation emissions • Inclusion of non-exhaust (tyre & break wear) PM • Updated N2O emission factors for HDV

  41. COPERT 4 Version 5.1 - February 2008 • Mainly a software update (bug corrections and additions) • Mileage used for N2O and NH3 emission degradation changed (was annual - > became cumulative) • Different RVP and Temperature values per year can be imported from Excel • Corrected mileage import from Excel • Warning message on evaporation emissions removed • Evaporation method now works also for negative temperature values

  42. Activity Data (Results of the Fleets project)

  43. Important, less important data

  44. Guide to national road-transport inventory compilation - 1 List open to suggestions • Obtain fuel consumption from national statistics • Estimate effects of tank tourism, black market • From 1 and 2 estimate true consumption of road transport • Collect data on total fleet in operation per category • National registers (cars, light trucks, heavy trucks, busses, motorcycles) • Police (mopeds) • Collect data on vehicle distribution per fuel and sub-category • National registers • Data from countries with similar structure (data from the Fleets project)

  45. Guide to national road-transport inventory compilation - 2 • Use age distributions to allocate vehicles to emission standards • pre ECE vehicles up to 1971 • ECE 15 00 & 01 1972 to 1977 • ECE 15 02 1978 to 1980 • ECE 15 03 1981 to 1985 • ECE 15 04 1985 to 1992 • Euro 1 1992 to 1996 • Euro 2 1996 to 2000 • Euro 3 2000 to 2004 • Euro 4 2005 to 2010 • Use information on sales/new registrations • Watch out for second-hand registrations • Obtain average min and max monthly temperatures for major cities and produce average. Data can be found on websites (e.g www.weatherbase.com) as well. • Estimate travelling speeds for urban areas (e.g. 25 km/h), rural areas (e.g. 60 km/h) and highways (e.g. 90 km/h). Estimation needs to be reasonable but not exact.

  46. Guide to national road-transport inventory compilation - 3 • Estimate mileage shares in the three modes. The sum should make up 100%. Reasonable but not exact estimation is required. • Assume mileage values in the order of • PCs: 11 – 15 Mm/year • LDVs: 15 – 25 Mm/year • HDVs: 50 – 80 Mm/year (national km only!) • Busses: 50 – 70 Mm/year • Mopeds: 2 – 5 Mm/year • Motorycles: 4 – 8 Mm/year • One could adjust mileage per age based on the ‘Fleets’ data • Perform COPERT run • Compare statistical with calculated fuel consumption per year • Total fuel consumption • Fuel consumption per fuel • Adjust mileage to equalize calculated with statistical values

  47. Hot Emission Factors of Regulated Pollutants from Conventional PCs – Example Comparison COPERT III and 4 –Euro 2 Diesel NOx

  48. Hot Emission Factors of Regulated Pollutants from Conventional PCs – Example Comparison COPERT III and 4 –Euro 3 Gas CO

  49. Typical Variability of Measured Data - CO

  50. Typical Variability of Measured Data – CO2

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