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The Invisible Primary and the 2012 Election Candidates: Insights and Analysis

This analysis explores the concept of the "Invisible Primary" in the context of the 2012 U.S. presidential election. It covers key candidates such as Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, and Rick Perry, detailing their strategies and challenges. The discussion highlights how media influence, fundraising, and constant polling shaped the expectations and trajectories of these candidates. By examining their characteristics and shifting positions during the campaign, we gain insight into the dynamics of grassroots support and electoral viability.

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The Invisible Primary and the 2012 Election Candidates: Insights and Analysis

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Presentation Transcript

  1. The Very Visible, Invisible Primary

  2. Office Hours • When • Today- 11-2 • Wednesday 10-2 • Doyle 226B

  3. Learning Outcomes • Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

  4. The Invisible Primary

  5. The Invisible Primary (Historically) • The Time from the first Declaration to the Iowa caucus • The media shapes your expectations and standings • Fundraising was the barometer

  6. The Modern Invisible Primary • No longer invisible • Constant Polls and debates measure success • Candidates read the handwriting

  7. Constant Debating

  8. Constant Debating

  9. You Cant tell the players without a scorecard Who was in the Race?

  10. Members of the House

  11. Ron Paul • Representative from Texas • The “libertarian candidate” • A Long Shot at Best

  12. Newt Gingrich • Former Speaker of the House from Georgia • Architect of the 1994 Republican sweep • Out of Politics for a Decade

  13. Michele Bachmann • Representative from MN • Tea Party Supporter • The only woman in the race

  14. The Long shot

  15. Herman Cain • CEO of Godfather Pizza • No Political Experience • Guest Host of Rush Limbaugh Show

  16. How the Candidates looked

  17. The New Mitt Romney

  18. The 2008 Conservative • Tried to Position himself as business conservative • Largely Ignored social issues

  19. No Traction in 2008 • Self-financed • No Nationwide appeal • Flip-flopper

  20. The 2008 Campaign • Wasn’t Built for the long haul • Deliver a 1-2 Punch • He doesn’t even get a 1

  21. Attacked from the Right • Romney and Huckabee go after each other • Romney spends all his money • This opens the door for McCain

  22. Romney in 2012 • Diffuse the Religion issue • Call anyone who attacks a religious bigot • The attacks never come

  23. Romney in 2012 • More accepting of attacks • Didn’t Punch down • Avoided controversy • Made himself more approachable

  24. Jockeying to Be the Unromney

  25. The GOP in November

  26. Being the Unromney • Positioning yourself as the alternate to Romney • He was viewed as a flawed and vulnerable front runner • Every time someone grabbed it, they faltered

  27. The Iowa Straw Poll • Bachmann wins the Ames Iowa Straw Poll • Spent much of her money to win • No one cared as Perry announced that same day

  28. Bachmann’s Brief Time as Unromney • Migraine headaches kept her off the trail • Took abuse for neglecting her family • Criticized for her appearance.

  29. Herman Cain: The Next Unromney • Led the Race in October • 9-9-9 • Very Popular

  30. The End of Herman Cain • Accused of Harassment while head of National Restaurant Association • This signals the End of the Campaign • The Romney Camp is actually disappointed.

  31. The Next Unromney The Fall and Rise of Newt Gingrich

  32. The Fall of Newt Gingrich • Spent more time and money on his wife • Staff Deserted him • No Money

  33. Gingrich’s Problems • Needed the Other Conservatives out of the Race • Find Money • Had to Hang on until South Carolina

  34. The Reemergence of Gingrich • The Best Red Meat Debater in the field • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To_g23JkXnU • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtkSFGkjaXU • The Most political experience • No one “punched down” at him

  35. Rick Santorum

  36. The Most Unlikely Unromney • Was 4 or 5th in Most Polls • Lost his last race by 18 points • Largely Ignored

  37. The Santorum Message • Said what was on his mind • Small Government Populism • Blue Collar Roots appealed to working class voters

  38. Rick Perry as the UnRomney

  39. Perry in 2009 • He is trailing KBH by 20 Points • He was seen as being more lucky than Good • People thought He had no chance

  40. For the GOP Nomination • Claims she is untested and too moderate for the Texas GOP • He aligns himself with the Tea Party • He makes himself an outsider despite 20 years in Government

  41. Perry in 2010 • Used the GOP majorities to push conservative policies • Pro Job • Pro Gun • Anti-DC

  42. He Goes after the Third Rail

  43. Perry Announces 8/13/2011 • Charleston S.C. on the day of the Iowa Straw Poll • Strong support among conservatives • The primaries should be easy for him

  44. 12 days after he announces, he is the Unromney29-17

  45. From there his campaign falls apart

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