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Unusual and Undesirable Recovery

Unusual and Undesirable Recovery. Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® California Association of REALTORS® Conference on Real Estate Voices Los Angeles, CA November 13, 2013. Existing Home Sales 20% cumulative increase over 2 years.

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Unusual and Undesirable Recovery

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  1. Unusual and Undesirable Recovery

    Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® California Association of REALTORS® Conference on Real Estate Voices Los Angeles, CA November 13, 2013
  2. Existing Home Sales20% cumulative increase over 2 years
  3. Median Home Price18% cumulative increase over 2 years
  4. Income Trends 2% to 4% cumulative increase over 2 years
  5. Falling Affordability to 5-year LowBut still 5th best in 40 years
  6. Inevitable Rise in Mortgage Rates will further hurt Affordability(30-yr rate have been below 6% for 5 years)
  7. All-Cash Buyers Stayed High … even when mortgages were cheap(Cash share as % of total home sales)
  8. Financial Industry Profits from Low Rates and RefisNow What … Boost Purchase Apps? $ billion
  9. Existing Home Inventory(Bouncing at 13-year lows)
  10. New Home Inventory(Newly Constructed Homes Inventory at near 50-year low)
  11. Shadow Inventory(Mortgages Late 90+ day or in foreclosure process)
  12. Housing Starts … Need to Reach 1.5 million soon or persistent housing shortage Thousand units (annualized) Long-term Average
  13. Rising Home PricesBecause of Lack of Inventory(% change from one year ago)
  14. Forecast(Rising Mortgage Rates to 5.3% by end of 2014)
  15. More Unequal Wealth Distribution Renters do not accumulate wealth Renter population rising Homeowners build wealth after buying at low prices Stagnant homeowner population Tight Credit hinders ‘good’ renters from becoming homeowners Investors becoming increasing share of property owners
  16. Renter Households In thousands
  17. Homeowner Households has not Grown since 2006 … but Primed to Grow In thousands
  18. Wealth Distribution (Federal Reserve data on median net worth) Bubble Crash Dodd-Frank? PATH? Lawsuits? Legacy? 2014 Forecast by NAR
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