INCA-CE: Integrating Nowcasting with crisis management and risk prevention in a transnational framework

1. INCA-CE: Integrating Nowcasting with crisis management and risk prevention in a transnational framework Yong Wang ZAMG, Austria This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF

2. The Challenge of Severe Weather Warnings More detailed and accurate weather warning in time andspace Bettercoordination between weatherservice andcrisismanagement Optimisedstrategies of usingweatherwarning information

3. INCA-CE: multidisciplinarycollaboration Warning Nowcasting Weatherservice Publicauthority Integratingnowcastingwithcrisismanagementandriskprevention

4. INCA-CE: transnational framework Real time data exchange Weather Forecast exchange Warning Warning communication Decision coordination

5. INCA-CE: international R&D on nowcasting A state-of-the-art, very high-resolution in time and space, application-oriented, real-time analysis and nowcasting system INCA Operational implementation at each partner Common efforts on maintainence

6. INCA-CE: WWRP/WMO FDP A Nowcasting Initiative:to improve public safety, the quality of life, economic prosperity and environmental quality by bringing researchers, scientists from operational centers and users together. A Nowcasting Initiativeserves to demonstrate the benefits on integrating nowcasting with application in frame of a multidisciplinary and transnational cooperation.

7. INCA-CE: WWRP/WMO FDP A Nowcasting Initiativeaddresses the objectives of WWRP, in particular, severe weather prediction; utilization of weather information; international and multidisciplinary research; knowledge transfer into operation, to end-users and feedback. INCA-CE evaluates the nowcasting technique and severe weather warning concepts in an operational environment to facilitate the transfer the research results into practices. Furthermore the INCA-CE contributes the overall WMO mission, which accelerates the technological transfer of innovations to developing countries through international cooperation and training.

8. INCA-CE: WWRP/WMO FDP • WWRP/WMOinvolvement helps INCA-CE a lot in development, information exchange and capacity building of mesoscale modeling, nowcasting tools, user-relevant verification and decision support systems and tools.

9. INCA-CE: implementationover Central Europe A Nowcasting Initiative for Severe Weather Warnings and Improved Communication Strategies on a trans-national Level The INCA-CE projectisfundedby • Project budget: 3.3 million € (4.7 million US$) • Project Lead: ZAMG • www.inca-ce.eu

10. INCA-CE Objectives Reducing impact of weather-related natural disasters (e.g. windstorms, flooding, icing) by establishing a warn-on-forecast system Improvement of risk management standards and methodology in order to enable management authorities to issue more detailed assessments and warnings. More precise estimation of weather-related risks and potential hazards in the private sector. Improvement in the accuracy and timeliness of severe weather warning

11. INCA-CE: Relevance • Prediction of heavy rainfall and associated flooding risks will help to set up efficient procedures in the management of mitigating • actions for the protection of buildings, roads, and other infrastructure. Operational Hydrology • Civil protection will benefit from a more comprehensive assessment • of meteorological threats, and a more detailed and timely forecast, leading to more efficient warning protocols and dissemination strategies. Civilprotection • Road safety will be enhanced by a more detailed road weather forecast made available both to the road management authorities as well as • to the general public. Road management • While the frequency and strength of critical weather events and natural disasters cannot be reduced, a state-of-the-art information and warning system will be developed to better support public and private institutions in case of severe events

12. INCA-CE projectconcept Building bridgebetweennowcasting and crisismanagement Feedback CommunicationDevelopment OptimisationTranslation Implementation Integration Evaluation Training Public Authorities Weather Services

13. WWRP/WMO FDP INCA-CE realization The INCA-CE project will be conducted in 2012-13 over Central Europe (CE) with four implementation phases: • Development of transnational strategy in road safety, civil protection and operational hydrology. (01.– 05. 2012) • Compilation and evaluation of regional methods currently in use. • Provide solution strategies for optimal use of nowcasting • and weather warnings in crisis management andrisk prevention. • 2. Optimization of nowcasting system (01. 2012– 06. 2013) • INCA development towards to the need of crisis management • and risk prevention. • Algorithmic extension; standard input and output interfaces. • Improvement in data flow, quality control, computational efficiency. • Observational data exchange in real time.

14. INCA-CE realisation • Forecast Demonstration of the developed strategy and optimized • nowcasting system through pilot implementations (06. 2012–09. 2013) • National-scale application and testing of the nowcasting • system and warning strategies at user level. • Establishment of structured feedback channels for final evaluation • 4. Evaluation and feedback (06. 2012–09. 2013) • Elaboration and compilation of transnational results, guidelines • and recommendations • Evaluation, feedback circle between nowcasting provider • and crisis management and risk prevention • Training for better understanding the warning • strategies and nowcasting system

15. INCA-CE coreoutputs Standradzied, optimised transnational warningstrategies, guidelines A state-of-the-art, very high-resolution in time and space, application-oriented, real-time analysis and common nowcasting system INCA Nowcastingproductstranslatedintouserrealvantinformation Nowcastingmodulsforhydrology, civilprotectionandroadmanagement Communication, feedback, trainingmechanismbetweennowcastingproviderandapplication Real time obs. Exchange, standardizedinput/outputinterface, dataflow, QC etc.

16. INCA-CE coreoutput Operational hydrology A web-based, trans-nationalweatherinformationsystemusingstate-of-the-artnowcastingmethods Crisismanagement und riskprevention Civil protection Road management

17. WWRP/WMO FDP partnership and management Meteoswiss

18. INCA-CE Central European Partnership 8 EU countries; 16 partners

19. Establishment of transregional working groups on hydrology, civil protection and road safety • Evaluate current implementations • Provide solutions strategies for similar regions Communication, knowledgemanagement Project Management Transregional strategy development • Algorithmic improvements in meteorological and hydrological nowcasting • Precipitation nowcasting through merging of different data sources • Incorporating topographic effects for wind nowcasting • Realistic simulation of flash-floods and mudslide hazards Adaption and refinement of nowcasting system Pilot implementations • Implementation of the developed warning system • Assessment of the added value from new developments • Quantitative and qualitative description of improvements achieved from outcomes of this project • Compile recommendations for use of this system outside the CE area • Strengths and limits of the system in view of hydrology, civil protection and road safety Feedback/evaluation INCA-CE Project: workingpackages

20. INCA-CE Project: actions

21. Development ofstrategyforcivilprotection Crisis management – structure, tasks and the weather information chain in thepartner countries Organization on country and regional level Main tasks with high weather impact Communication methods and alert systems Requirements and use of weather information Cross-border cooperation, evaluation of the operations

22. Example: CivilProtection • Recommendations • INCA-SWING (SevereWeatherINterpretation Guide) Basic meteorologicaltermsexplainedtothegeneralpublicandCivilProtectionauthorities -> increasedmeteorologicalunderstanding • INCA-MCPEX (MeteorologicalCivilProtectionEXercise) Organizationofpracticalexercisesandtrainings -> informationchainandcommunicationtested • INCA-ISW (Impact ofSevereWeather) Cross-border, real-time exchange of information about weather related damages to improve the preparedness and forecasting, predominantly in the bordering regions -> Increasedforecasting time of fast developingweatherphenomena; moreaccuratespecification of mesoscaleaspects of large scale events

23. INCA: Integrated NowcastingthroughComprehensive Analysis Radiosonde Surfaceobservations NWP forecasts INCA Data QC, Integration, optimisation Satelliteobsercations Geoinformation data Radar observations AnalysesandNowcasting

24. Key requirmentsfor INCA • An operational nowcasting model: • Straightforwardwithquality • efficient • stable, • applicationoriented • easy tomaintain

25. Domain and Topography INCA-AT Domain size 600 x 350 km Elevation range 100 - 4000 m Resolution Horizontal: 1 km Vertical: 150 m Time: 15 min – 1h Update frequency 5 min – 1h Availability + 20 min … +30 min

26. INCA Analyses and forecasts • 2-D Analyses und Forecasts • Precipitation • Precipitation type • Cloudiness • Global radiation • 3-D Analyses und Forecasts • Temperature • Humidity • Wind • 2-D Convective Analyses Fields • CAPE • CIN • LCL • LFC • Instability Indices (LI, Showalter, ..) • Trigger-Temperature-Deficit • Equivalent Potential Temperature • Moisture convergence • Mass convergence • Other derived 2-D Fields • Snowfall line • Icing potential • Wind chill

27. INCA precipitationanalysis

28. Temperature analysis 16 July 2007, 12Z 100 km MAE = 0.84 K

29. Cloud, Icing, Precipitation type, Visibility Snowfall Snow/Rain mix Rain Freezing rain Precip type

30. INCA-CE: civilprotectionAutomaticwarningsforcivilprotectionandforthegeneralpublic Severeweather warnings Gust monitor Neusiedler lake http://www.interchalet.com

31. Identification of regions with high disposition Analyse andforecastof extrem weather (INCA)  Precipitation (1km, 15min)  Temperature  Hydrological variables  Slope Exposition  Geotechnical structure  Creeks history Fusion of geo-related data Estimation of stability Identification of hazard zones Warning INCA-CE: landslidewarning • Thunderstorm • Severaldays • lastingrainfall • Snowmelting Activating

32. INCA-CE: hydrology 2 1 Precipitation forecast 1 - + Limit precipitation exceeded? INCA & ensembleprediction Precipitation forecast 2 + 3 Precipitation forecast 3 Every 5min, very high resolution 1km Hydrological simulation . . . Set of n hydrological forecast Precipitation forecast n Evaluation - + Issue warning? 5 4 Warning issued Continue in following time step

33. Summary • In frameof INCA-CE project 24 international groups, not onlyfromweatherservices, but also fromhydrologicalservices, publicauthoritiesofcrisismanagement, civilprotectionandroadmanagement, will worktogether on: • moredetailedandaccuratenowcastingsystem • optimisedstrategiesforusingweatherwarninginformationby • decision-makerofvarious social and economic sectors • coordinatedwarningofsevereweather Save Life! Save Cost! ReduceRisks!

34. Thanks! Theproject has been startet: INCA Introduction to the Federal President of the Republic of Austria Dr. H. Fischer