A short introduction into downscaling

1. A short introduction into downscaling Hans von Storch Institute for Coastal ResearchGKSS Research CenterGermany Disputation Frederik Wetterhall

2. Overview • The perspective of anthropogenic climate change: - needs for studying the sensitivity of the global system, and • - the needs for adaptation on the regional and local scale. • Tools to do so: Global quasi-realistic climate models. • Limitation in spatial resolution. • Need for Downscaling: empirical and dynamical. Disputation Frederik Wetterhall

3. The expectation of anthropogenic climate change – little doubt left. Different scenarios describing plausible, possible and different futures. Disputation Frederik Wetterhall

4. Disputation Frederik Wetterhall

5. TAR-“Consensus” on precip change in 2100 Disputation Frederik Wetterhall

6. Response: adaptation and mitigation • Mitigation (reduction of emissions) as much a we can afford (economically, socially); long term effort; long term gains; international efforts • Adaptation to present extreme events – short term effort, local effort; useful if future extreme events are getting worse. Disputation Frederik Wetterhall

7. Dynamical / empirical downscaling Disputation Frederik Wetterhall

8. 2 Examples Dynamical Downscaling Rockel&Woth Empirical Downscaling 2CO2 Maak&von Storch control Projected change of flowering date of Galantis Nivalis in Northern Germany (days) Change in total number of storm peak events (in %) from 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 simulated by a RCM/A2 Disputation Frederik Wetterhall

9. And now … • Frederik Wetterhall • on • Statistical downscaling • of precipitation in Sverige och China Disputation Frederik Wetterhall