Emerging Technologies and the Web Finding a Balance Between Possibility and Reality Brad Kasell brad.kasell@au1.ibm.com

1. Emerging Technologies and the Web Finding a Balance Between Possibility and Reality Brad Kasellbrad.kasell@au1.ibm.com

2. “We don't know a millionth of one percent about anything” - Thomas A. Edison

3. “What sets the new technologies apart from those of the Internet’s first generation is their canny way of turning self-interest into social benefit - and real economic value.” - Business Week, June 2005

4. Possibility vs Reality • The Web Today • The Nature of the Possibility • Social Networking The Architecture of Participation • Web Services and SOA The Architecture of Integration • Open Source Everything The Architecture of Contribution

5. The Web Today “The next big thing is not my concern” – Blake Ross, Lead Architect, Firefox

6. Small is the New Big • Skype • 128 Million Downloads • 10.4 Billion Minutes Served • Greasemonkey • The Web, Your Way • Is to the Deep Web What Hypertext is to Documents • Del.icio.us • “Folksonomies” • Contextual Filter for the Web “I knew it was over when I downloaded Skype,” Michael Powell, chairman, Federal Communications Commission, explained. “When the inventors of KaZaA are distributing for free a little program that you can use to talk to anybody else, and the quality is fantastic, and it’s free – it’s over. The world will change now inevitably.” - Fortune Magazine, February 2004

7. The Rise of the Platforms • Web 2.0? Try 3.0 • 1.0 The Read-Only Web • 2.0 The Interactive Web • 3.0 The Programmable Web • Platforms • Yahoo, Amazon, eBay • Google Everything • Internet Operating System • Of All Things - YubNub? • A Command Line for the Web

8. The Nature of the Possibility

9. The Hype Cycle In the hype cycle, failure always precedes success - Graeme Philipson, Sydney Morning Herald Source: Gartner Group

10. Sex MP3 Shane Warne 3% 97% 1,000X 10 1000 10,000,000 The Long Tail • Millions of Markets of Dozens • Not pre-filtered by distribution bottlenecks • Inventory is "non-rivalrous“ • Signal-to-noise problem is solvable with information tools • It's all about the diamonds, not the rough Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot

11. The Long Tail (Cont.) Three counterintuitive lessons of the Long Tail: • Niche content can be of higher quality than hit content. • It doesn't matter how much junk there is around those gems; with good filters, the average level of quality is irrelevant. • You can charge more for high-quality niche content because it is so well-suited to its audience.   Every single iTunes song has been bought at least once

12. Fixed, stable feature set Evolvable, changes with requirements Implied Requirements Head Tail Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot

13. Fixed, stable feature set Architected Evolvable, changes with requirements Evolved Implied Requirements Head Tail Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot

14. Fixed, stable feature set Architected Permanent Evolvable, changes with requirements Evolved Disposable Implied Requirements Head Tail Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot

15. Fixed, stable feature set Architected Permanent 100k-1M users Evolvable, changes with requirements Evolved Disposable 1-1000 users Implied Requirements Head Tail Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot

16. Fixed, stable feature set Architected Permanent 100k-1M users Big pieces Evolvable, changes with requirements Evolved Disposable 1-1000 users Small pieces Implied Requirements Head Tail Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot

17. Fixed, stable feature set Architected Permanent 100k-1M users Big pieces Monolithic Evolvable, changes with requirements Evolved Disposable 1-1000 users Small pieces Loosely joined Implied Requirements Head Tail Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot

18. Fixed, stable feature set Architected Permanent 100k-1M users Big pieces Monolithic Generic Evolvable, changes with requirements Evolved Disposable 1-1000 users Small pieces Loosely joined Specific Implied Requirements Head Tail Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot

19. Fixed, stable feature set Architected Permanent 100k-1M users Big pieces Monolithic Generic Lock-in Evolvable, changes with requirements Evolved Disposable 1-1000 users Small pieces Loosely joined Specific Open Implied Requirements Head Tail Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot

20. Fixed, stable feature set, Architected, Permanent, 100k+ users, Big pieces Monolithic Generic Lock-in Most users not builders Changes with requirements, Evolved, Disposable, 1-1000 users, Small pieces Loosely joined Specific Open Most users are builders Implied Requirements Head Tail Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot

21. Fixed, stable feature set, Architected, Permanent, 100k+ users, Big pieces Monolithic Generic Lock-in Most users not builders Low-level tools Changes with requirements, Evolved, Disposable, 1-1000 users, Small pieces Loosely joined Specific Open Most users are builders High-level tools Implied Requirements Head Tail Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot

22. Fixed, stable feature set, Architected, Permanent, 100k+ users, Big pieces Monolithic Generic Lock-in Most users not builders Low-level tools Complex, feature bloat Changes with requirements, Evolved, Disposable, 1-1000 users, Small pieces Loosely joined Specific Open Most users are builders High-level tools Simple, few features (but right ones) Implied Requirements Head Tail Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot

23. Social Networking "There was a definite process by which one made people into friends, and it involved talking to them and listening to them for hours at a time.“ - Rebecca West

24. “The nearly 1 billion people online worldwide—along with their shared knowledge, social contacts, online reputations, computing power, and more—are rapidly becoming a collective force of unprecedented power. For the first time in human history, mass cooperation across time and space is suddenly economical.” - Business Week, June 2005

25. Social Networking Organisational power lies in relationships between people, and in their collaboration. • Social Networks • Orkut, Friendster, Plaxo, … • Overhyped and not very useful • Blogs/Wikis • Rise of RSS/Atom • Overhyped, but powerful • Intra-Enterprise blogging emerges • Social Bookmarking • Del.icio.us, Furl, Flickr, … • Almost too simple • Podcasting • Overhyped, but some real gems

26. Wikipedia.org

28. Web Services and SOA “SOA, AJAX and REST: The Software Industry Devolves into the Fashion Industry” – Dare Obasanjo, Microsoft

29. “e-business is about rebuilding the organization from the ground up. Most companies today are not built to exploit the Internet. Their business processes, their approvals, their hierarchies, the number of people they employ … all of that is wrong for running an e-business.” - Ray Lane, Kleiner Perkins

30. Web Services – What’s the Hype? Source: Gartner Group

31. Web Services and SOA • Standards? • Specifications Based on Need • Quality of Implementation? • Architecture • House vs Skyscraper • Best vs Good Enough • Web Applications • Web Services/SOA • AJAX/REST • LAMP/PHP “I have yet to see any problem, however complicated, which, when you looked at it in the right way, did not become still more complicated.” - Poul Anderson

33. RESTian Web Services • Characteristics • Pull-based • Stateless/Cacheable/Layered • Uniform Interface (HTTP) • Named Resources (URL) • Interconnected Resource Representations • Representations of the resources are interconnected using URLs. Clients progress from one state to another. • Benefits • Scales well • Data transfer in streams of unlimited size and type • Supports intermediaries (proxies and gateways) as data transformation and caching components • Concentrates the application state within the user agent components REST requires you to rethink your problem in terms of manipulations of addressable resources instead of method calls to a component.

34. Open Source

35. “Give a little, take a lot.” - Business Week, January 2005

36. Open Source • “Free” Software? • Not just Linux • Development Models, Licensing, Code Distribution, … • Marketing Strategy = Lip Service • Community Model • Usage vs Buy-in to Community Model • Philosophical vs Practical • Business Model • Innovation Inhibitor? • Sustainable? • JBoss: Only 3-5% customers buy support • Red Hat: 40% of profit from investment interest "Hack for the Dole" CommunityCode is an Australian open source organisation that wants to help the unemployed receive credit for any open source software development they do. Why? Recipients of Centrelink'sNewStart allowance can fulfil part or all of their 'mutual obligation' requirements by doing volunteer work for a community organisation; second is that it might be useful for students or other people starting out to get some "real live" development experience. - www.communitycode.org Source: Daniel Lyons, Forbes

37. Open Source Hygiene Guide to Open Source Software for Australian Government Agencies

38. Open Source Considerations • Risk: The market economy creates accountability: Vendors that fail to fix flaws will eventually find themselves out of business. • Longevity: That is why customers feel more comfortable with brand-name vendors. It's not their marketing might that is appealing but their staying power. • Support: Customers want to know they will have the support they need when they need it. • Accountability: CIOs considering a move to open-source software need someone to hold accountable - someone who has the resources to address any problems that occur. • Funding: Venture capitalists pumped US$150 million into open source startups in 2004, triple the amount for 2003.

39. “There’s a fundamental shift in power happening. Everywhere, people are getting together and, using the Internet, disrupting whatever activities they’re involved in.” - Pierre Omidyar, Founder, eBay