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Disasters and Climate Change Adaptation

Disasters and Climate Change Adaptation. Dan Sandink Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction. AEMA Stakeholder Summit October 29, 2008 Leduc, Alberta. Introduction. ICLR Global trends Canadian disasters and disaster trends Hazards and vulnerability Alberta

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Disasters and Climate Change Adaptation

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  1. Disasters and Climate Change Adaptation Dan Sandink Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction AEMA Stakeholder Summit October 29, 2008Leduc, Alberta

  2. Introduction • ICLR • Global trends • Canadian disasters and disaster trends • Hazards and vulnerability • Alberta • Adaptation and disaster mitigation • Conclusion

  3. ICLR • Created in 1997 by Canadian insurers to address rising natural disaster losses • Affiliated with the University of Western Ontario • Offices in London and Toronto • 30 Scientists associated with ICLR • Engineering, social sciences, atmospheric sciences, geophysics • A focus on disaster mitigation and prevention • Climate change adaptation

  4. Global Occurrences: Nat Cats • Thousands of fatalities and/or hundreds of thousands homeless • Supra-regional, international assistance required • Exceptional monetary losses Geophysical events Climatological events Meteorological events Hydrologic events Munich Re, 2008

  5. Global Costs: Nat Cats Total losses Insured losses Munich Re, 2008

  6. Disasters in Canada

  7. Canadian Disaster Database • Criteria for inclusion: • Meets at least one of the following: • 10 or more people killed • 100 or more people affected/injured/evacuated or homeless • An appeal for national/international assistance • Historical significance • Significant damage/interruption of normal processes such that the community affect cannot recover on its own Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

  8. Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters in Canada, 1900-2005 Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

  9. Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters1900-2005 Flood is most common British Columbia Ontario Maritimes Quebec Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

  10. Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters 1900-2005 Alberta Drought is most common, floods are second most common Manitoba Saskatchewan Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

  11. Disaster Database Number of Catastrophic Events Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

  12. Disaster Database • Recent significant disaster events: • Prairie Drought, 1980 • $5.8 B • Ice Storm, 1998 • $5.4 B • Prairie Drought, 1988 • $4.1 B • Saguenay Flood, 1996 • $1.7 B • Red River Flood, 1997 • $817 M • Earthquake risk • Estimates in the 10s and 100s of billions Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

  13. Insurance Payouts Large Payout Events by Hazard, 1983-2005 Number of Events IBC, 2000; 2007

  14. Insurance Payouts • Most expensive disasters for Canadian insurance industry (adjusted to 2005) • 1998, Ontario and Quebec ice storm • $1.95 B • August 19, 2005 heavy rainfall and wind event, GTA/Ontario • $500 M • Hail event, Calgary, 1991 • $444 M IBC, 2007; 2000

  15. Factors in Increasing Trends

  16. Hazards & Vulnerability • Disasters occur when hazards trigger vulnerability Hazards Vulnerability • Potentially damaging events • Floods • Hurricanes • Droughts • Propensity to experience impacts (susceptibility) • Socioeconomic characteristics • Location of development Disaster Risk

  17. Vulnerability Factors Adapted from Füssel (2007). Sources: Cutter et al., 2000; Cutter et al., 2003; de Sherbinin et al., 2007; Dore, 2003; Etkin, 1999; Etkinet al., 2004; Field et al., 2007; Hebb & Mortsch, 2007; Shrubsole, 2000

  18. Vulnerability Factors Canadians Living in Urban Areas, Millions Statistics Canada, 2001

  19. Climate Change • Climate Change • Increasing energy in the atmospheric system • Extreme events will become more common • Drought, extreme rainfall, heavy rainfall, higher temperatures, high wind events, health impacts • IPCC, 2007: “Very High Confidence” • Impacts are largely local/regional Field et al., 2007

  20. Alberta

  21. Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters in Alberta1900-2005 Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

  22. Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters in Alberta1900-2005 Frank Slide, 1903 70 Dead, 23 Injured Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

  23. Issues for Alberta From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007 • Vulnerability issues in Alberta: • Growing population • Growing urban population • Increasing wealth • Reliance on rivers for water • Reliance on irrigation • Alberta has 2/3 of Canada’s irrigated lands • Historical urban flood issues

  24. Population From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007

  25. Hazard Vulnerable Areas Google Maps, Alberta Environment

  26. Hail, Drought & Flood in Alberta

  27. Hail Etkin & Brun, 2001; IBC, 2006; Public Safety Canada, 2007 • Highest frequency of hail is in Central/Western Alberta between 1977 and 1993 – 3-7 days per warm months (May-September) • From 1900-2005, 36 hail related disasters in Canada • 20 of these were in Alberta • Most costly hailstorm in Canada: September 1991 in Calgary • 116,311 claims • $342,745,000 (1991 $) • $ 475,646,122 (2008 $)

  28. Hail Major Multiple-Payment Occurrences: Hail Minimum: $2 M 18/26 were in AB 7/8 events >$50 M were in Alberta Millions of Dollars, Adjusted to 2006 IBC 2000; 2008

  29. Hail • Studies suggest that frequency of hail events is increasing in Alberta • Etkin & Brun (2001) found statistically significant increase when comparing occurrences between 1977-1982 and 1983-1993 • But not in other provinces • Research on climate change impacts on hail is limited in Canada • A 2008 study found that hail occurrences will increase as the climate changes in Australia • Possible climate change impacts • Hail associated with severe thunderstorms • Extreme weather events (including severe thunderstorms, convective storms) are expected to increase as the climate changes Leslie et al., 2008; White & Etkin, 1997

  30. Drought • Drought is a normal part of the prairie ecosystem • Research has revealed that pre-settlement droughts in the prairies were more severe, and the post-settlement climate has been relatively favourable • Prolonged drought over 1-2 years in length more frequent in pre-settlement periods Sauchyn et al., 2003; Images: Natural Resources Canada

  31. Temperature Trends Average temperatures since 1895 from 12 prairieclimate stations prairies Average increase in mean temp: 1.6°C From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007; Environment Canada, 2005

  32. Climate Change and Drought • According to a 2008 report from Government of Canada: • “Increases in water scarcity represent the most serious climate risk” for the Prairie Provinces • Lower summer stream flows • Falling lake levels • Retreating glaciers • Increasing soil-, surface-water deficits • Greater number of dry years • Could constrain rapid economic development and population growth in Alberta From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007

  33. Climate Change and Drought • Smaller amount of snowfall, rain instead of snow in the winter • Snow accumulation is already decreasing (Akinremi et al., 1999) • Possibly more precipitation in the winter • Earlier peaks in runoff and stream flows • Lower late-season water supplies • Predictions of increased summer heat and decreased growing season precipitation • Reduced supplies for communities that rely on rivers for water supply (e.g., Calgary, which relies on Bow and Elbow Rivers) • Reduced glacial melt From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007; Timilsina & Kralovic 2005

  34. Days Warmer than 30°C Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis

  35. Drought • Wildfire: • Increased risk of wildfire – risk increased by 20-30% in prairie regions over next 60 years • Earlier onset of spring and summerlike conditions will increase the length of the fire season (season could increase by 20 days over the next 50 years) • Wildfires can create flood risk • Increased flood risk due to hydrophobic soils, loss of vegetation during post-wildfire period • Dryer conditions mean organic soils dry and burn with the forest, total removal of vegetation • Reduced ability to store water From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007; Wotton & Flannigan, 1993

  36. Post-Wildfire Risks • Kelowna: Post-wildfire flood risk • Increase between 5 and 15 times the pre-fire 1 in 200 year flows • Created approx. $10 M in damage risk • $2 M in stream-road crossing improvements

  37. Flood • Likely the most significant risk for urban communities • There will be increased pressure on existing stormwater management infrastructure • Heavy rainfall, increased development • Heavy precipitation events have increased in in frequency in south-western Canada, 1950-1995 (May-June-July period) • Light precipitation events have decreased in frequency • Heavy rainfall events expected in increase in frequency in changing climate Akinremi, 1999; Groisman et al., 2005; From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007; Stone et al., 2000

  38. Flood • Southern Alberta, 2005 • $84,000,000 in DFAA payouts (2005 $) • $55,000,000 in provincial disaster relief payouts (2005 $) • $300,000,000 in Insurance payouts • Calgary: June, 2005 • 13,500 claims • $144.5 million in insurance payouts (2005 $) • Southern Alberta, 1995 • $34,889,155 in DFAA payouts (1995 $) • Provincial Share: $6,964,285 • $12,672,842 in provincial disaster relief payouts (1995 $) • $20,764,000 in insurance payouts (1995 $) Personal Communication, Insurance Bureau of Canada, Alberta and the North Division; IBC, 2008; PSC, 2007; Public Safety Canada

  39. Edmonton, 2004 • 2 severe rainfall events in July, 2004 • July 2 - 75 mm • July 11 - 150 mm (~1 in 200 year event) • July 11 storm part of the system that hit Peterborough on July 15 • 9,500 insurance claims for sewer backup • $143 M for sewer backup • Total of $166 M for all damages IBC, 2006; Klassen & Seifert, 2006

  40. Urban Flood Impacts • Infrastructure damage • Business interruption • Damage to homes • Environmental impacts Utilities in Basement

  41. Extreme Rainfall • Overland flows caused by extreme rain • Caused directly by intense rain • e.g., when rain exceeds 100 year capacity of major systems and/or where major systems are poorly defined • Occur outside of formally defined floodplain • Generally, have not been identified in riverine flood risk maps

  42. Extreme Rainfall – Overland Flow Routes Vs. Riverine Flooding UMA. 2005. City of Peterborough Flood Reduction Master Plan. UMA: Mississauga

  43. Mitigation and Prevention (Adaptation)

  44. Climate Change Adaptation • Climate Change Mitigation • Reducing GHG emissions, improve NRG efficiency • “Climate Protection” • Global and long-term • Climate Change Adaptation • Reducing negative impacts, or enhancing positive impacts of climate change • Local, short- to long-term • Emergency management and disaster mitigation • Accounting for increased frequency and severity of climate/weather related extreme events • Enhancing resilience to these events Bruce, 1999; Lemmen & Warren, 2004; Mehdi et al., 2006

  45. Adaptation • Risk Management • Identify, analyze, evaluate, identify options, implement and monitor mitigation strategies • Risks change as the climate changes • Infrastructure has been based on assumption of a static climate • E.g., 1 in 100 year event • Comprehensive adaptation plans require multiple stakeholders • Infrastructure, social issues, environmental issues, buildings, land-use planning, water resources, emergency management, etc.

  46. By 2070, current “20 year” events could occur every 10 years

  47. Climate Change Image: Prodanovic & Simonovic, 2007 • Scenarios should be regionalized • IDF curve study for the City of London, Ontario (Prodanovic & Simonovic, 2007 – UWO) • Identified potential changes in precipitation under climate change scenario • Rainfall magnitude and intensity will be different in the future • Wet scenario revealed significant increase in rainfall magnitudes and frequencies • Applying IDFs to assess vulnerability (current study)

  48. Climate Change Adaptation • Addressing the hazard • Flood management structures • Hail suppression • Alberta Hail Suppression Project • Reduce hail damage in urban areas (Calgary and Red Deer) • Funded by the insurance industry • Addressing vulnerability (behaviour changes) • Urban flood reduction education programs (e.g., Edmonton) • Water conservation initiatives • Public/online access to flood maps • Planning for hazards • Risk maps and land-use restrictions • FireSmart program (Partners in Protection, based in Edmonton)

  49. Public Behaviour • Edmonton and Toronto • Overall, Edmonton respondents more knowledgeable and more of them had taken mitigative action than Toronto respondents • Significant differences in perceptions/behaviours between case cities • Higher rate of attending public meetings related to flood (14% vs. 5%) • More likely to think that the City was doing something about flood risk • Leading funding/education program

  50. Alberta Flood Risk Map Information System From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007

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