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4 t h Edition Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning

CABI TOURISM TEXTS. 4 t h Edition Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning. A. J. Veal. COMPLEMENTARY TEACHING MATERIALS. Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4 th Edition. CHAPTER 13. Planning Tool 4 : Forecasting.

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4 t h Edition Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning

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  1. CABI TOURISM TEXTS 4th EditionLeisure, Sport andTourism, Politics,Policy and Planning A. J. Veal COMPLEMENTARY TEACHING MATERIALS

  2. Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th Edition CHAPTER 13 Planning Tool 4: Forecasting Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  3. Outline Introduction The past of the future Forecasting what? Change factors Forecasting techniques Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  4. The past of the future: a brief history of leisure, sport and tourism forecasting • 1962: US Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission: quantitative modelling of demand • Leisure/sport demand forecasting generally undertaken by academics + private sector • Tourism forecasting (international) often sponsored by government agencies • often proved wrong because of significant international events, such as 9/11 and Global Financial Crisis Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  5. Forecasting what? Types of demand (Table 13.1) Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  6. Demand change factors • Demography • Income • Supply: the activities of producers • Leisure time and work time • Transport • Technology • The environment, including climate change • Changing tastes and lifestyles • Changing attitudes and values • The media • Post-industrialism, postmodernism and globalization Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  7. 1. Demography Demographic change: UK, 2014–34 Fig. 13.1 Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  8. 2. Income Trends in household expenditure, UK, 1995–2006 Fig. 13.2 Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  9. Leisure responding to financial crisis: Australian arts attendances(Fig. 13.3) Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  10. 3. Supply: activities of producers • ‘Supply’ side of the demand–supply relationship • Suppler actions have some effect on activity • Public campaigns, e.g. ‘Sport for All’, ‘Life. Be in it’ • Provision of facilities – e.g. 2000+ indoor leisure centres in UK; cheap airlines • Note also: the role of media, communications, critics and ‘culture brokers’ between producers and consumers • The idea of ‘multi-purpose platforms’ Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  11. 5. Transport: leisure travel, UK, 1995–2012 (Fig. 13.4) Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  12. 7. Environment/climate change • Leisure activities have an impact on the environment, e.g.: • golf courses require water • pedestrians compact soil, which can cause run-off /erosion • hotels/resorts generate sewage and litter • all take land thatmay be habitat for wildlife • Climate change: most identified research focuses on impacts/adaptation Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  13. Climate change (Box 13.1) • World Tourism Organization Davos Declaration: www.unwto.org/climate/support/en/support.php • Research: • McEvoyet al.: • coastal dune system with recreation: increased visitor numbers and pressures • Peak District National Park: more fires • Lake District: footpath erosion and loss of snow cover • Manchester city centre: more demand for outdoor living • Scott and Jones • Golf: in Toronto: increased demand + longer season • McBoyleet al.: • snowmobiling in Canada: reduction in the length of season, possibly to zero for some areas Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  14. Forecasting techniques • Informed speculation • Asking the public • Asking the experts (the Delphi technique) • Scenario writing • Time series analysis • Spatial analysis • Cross-sectional analysis • Comparative analysis • Composite methods Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  15. 1. Informed speculation • Personal reflections on the future of (informed?) commentators, e.g. on the amount of work and leisure in future • Typically in final chapters of books • No specific methodology Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  16. 2. Asking the public • Some surveys include questions asking people what leisure/ tourism activities they would like to, or plan to, take up. • But does it work? • Example: Australian 1991 survey (Box 13.2): • asked people what activities they would like to take up • most popular responses: (men) golf 7% fishing 7%; (women) tennis 5% aerobics/keep fit 5% • Recent Australian surveys show aerobics/keep fit  but tennis, golf, fishing  • Why? • Surveys show greatest claimed constraint on participation is ‘lack of time’. Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  17. 3. Asking the experts: Delphi technique • Named after classical Greek Delphic Oracle who foretold people’s futures • A method for finding consensus among experts • A list/panel of experts is identified • Can be conducted face-to-face, but more usually by mail/email • First round: experts asked to give opinions on future events in their field – likelihood, timing etc. • Results of first round are collated and circulated – experts may revise their estimates • May go to additional rounds • See Box 13.3 for examples Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  18. 4. Scenario writing Implications for leisure/sport/ tourism worked out for each scenario • Devising alternative pictures of the future based on key variables, e.g. economic/political (Fig. 13.5) High unemployment Scenario A Scenario B Conservative government Leftist government Scenario C Scenario D Low unemployment Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  19. 5. Time series analysis Continuation of past trends: depends on availability of time-series data, e.g. gambling expenditure in Australia, 1981–2005 Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  20. 6. Spatial analysis • See Box 12.2 + Clawson method in Ch. 14 • Quantitative modelling (see Box 13.4) Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  21. 7. Cross-sectional analysis • Analysis of variation of leisure participation within – or across – the population • As the structure of the population changes (e.g. ageing), so will overall participation. • Two methods: a. cohort b. regression equation Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  22. a. Cohort method Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  23. b. Regression-based techniques • Example: • P = a + bVAR1 + cVAR2 +dVAR3 etc. • Where: • P = participation • VAR1, VAR2, VAR3 etc. are independent, influencing variables • a, b, c etc. coefficients determined by the analysis • forecasts of VAR1, VAR2, VAR3 etc. provide forecasts of P Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  24. 8. Comparative method • The idea that a version of the future can be seen in other, more economically developed, countries – Dumazedier • Similarly, John Naisbitt (Megatrends) identified ‘bell-weather’ states in USA, which are in advance of the other states in terms of lifestyles/consumption. Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

  25. 9. Composite approaches • More than one methodology is often used in forecasting exercises, e.g.: • Kelly and Warnick, in Recreation Trends and Markets (1999), use a combination of methods: • cross-sectional (cohort) and • time-series analysis Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts

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