FYI 180: A Global Perspective and Energy Conservation

1. FYI 180:A Global Perspective and Energy Conservation Stephen Bradforth

2. In the news… From International Energy Agency (IEA) report this week Marketplace.org COMMENT: When petroleum runs out- which it will, sooner or later, the countries that pumped their resources dry too early will be at the mercy of those who prudently saved theirs. If we are going to deplete our resources this early in the "draw-down", we should work hard in the ~10 years it buys us to move as strongly as possible to other energy alternatives. Otherwise, the Saudis and others will be chuckling soon at our short-term thinking. One other thing to consider- oil is the source of many organic compounds that are used to make just about everything we rely on today- even if we "solve" the energy conundrum, we may then simply be reliant on oil-producers for other major portions of our economy. Let's hold onto ours as long as possible and let others pump theirs dry. FROM BBC NEWS: The IEA also expects that the US will overtake Russia as the world's biggest gas producer by 2015, again thanks to fracking, which can also be used to extract natural gas. It warns that the big growth in US oil and gas production could have significant geopolitical implications, as it may make the US less concerned about the Middle East. The US the largest oil and gas producer again?

3. Oil production by country over time

4. A global perspective

5. Western Europe, Japan

6. MacKay’s concludes in chapter 30 stating: “Europe can’t live on its own renewables” (even if they build them) MAXIMUM: ~ 80 kWh/d even after building massive solar farms. For Europe, need 125 kWh/d. Conclusion: Europe needs more nuclear, or to live off other countries’ renewables. “North American non-solar renewables aren’t enough for North America to live on.” But with “massive expansion of solar power, there is enough.” Conclusion: Either solar from North America’s own deserts or more nuclear, or both, will allow energy survival without fossil fuels Basically same conclusion for the world – solar or nuclear, or both. • Price tag: • a 2008-style bank bailout or • one-year’s arms expenditure or • half the Iraq war (MacKay, p 218)

7. Total changes in energy policy …but different approaches by different countries • Germany will close existing plants by 2022 (losing 10% of energy supply) • Switzerland has banned all new plants letting current generation expire in 2030 • UK will continue in its expansion of nuclear plant fleet • France already has 77% of its energy from nuclear with no changes planned • Poland and China are building more plants Nuclear: Reaction to Fukushima

8. Silicon photovoltaic companies in 2011 in the US are starting to close, outcompeted by Chinese government-subsidized companies like Suntech Germany, also one of the countries out in front, is struggling with diminishing government subsidies and Asian competition Oct 2012 US Commerce Department ruling: 24-36 % tariffs on solar panels from China (action led by German and US manufacturers)

9. But US still leads in newer solar technologies • Commercial CdTethin-film PV cell (17.3%) and PV module (14.4%) efficiency • First Solar • Mesa, AZ company. • 5 GW of First Solar panels installed worldwide

10. Solar Land Area Requirements 6 Boxes at 3.3 TW Each

11. Living on other countries renewables

12. Buying energy from other countries: Europe has high population density and too low renewable power density But many countries have low density, large areas and high power densities On what terms would these countries be willing to cover 100’s of miles of their land with Concentrating solar thermal or solar PV panels? Cost of transmission and security?

13. Energy Conservationwhat does it mean to you?

14. FossilFuels Energy efficiency and then electrical powered heat pumps (for heat and a/c use pump heat to from ground) can reduce use here by up to 75% Is BIG conservation possible? Electrification (cars, rail) can shrink transportation energy consumption by 80%

15. TAKING A BITE OUT OF TRANSPORTATION

16. Rail

17. Lighting

18. Unallocated Lighting (7%) (20%) Other (4%) Appliances (14%) Refrigeration Space Heating (7%) (25%) Water Heating (11%) Ventilation Space Cooling (3%) (12%) • 80% of residential lighting is incandescent • Government Target: widespread deployment of lighting with 50% efficiency (electricity to light)

19. Comparison of Lighting Technologies

20. OLEDs(Organic Light Emitting Diodes) Courtesy Phillips

21. 10x efficiency of incandescents! Saves 18% of national electricity usage DOE TARGET • ROADMAP Targeted % increase/decrease • - IQE 20-30% • -Voltage 15-30% • Outcoupling 50% • =150 lm/W UDC Record 102 lm/W

22. Anyone else got an idea!