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The four Ingredients of a Natural Catastrophe Loss

Example Hurricane “Charley” Aug 2004. Hazard Which intensity, where and how often?. Vulnerability How do the affected values react to different levels of intensities?. Value Distribution Where are the insured values located?. Limit. Insurance Conditions

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The four Ingredients of a Natural Catastrophe Loss

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  1. Example Hurricane “Charley” Aug 2004 Hazard Which intensity, where and how often? Vulnerability How do the affected values react to different levels of intensities? Value Distribution Where are the insured values located? Limit Insurance Conditions What and how is the exposure covered? Deductible The four Ingredients of a Natural Catastrophe Loss

  2. HazardMonsoon Rainfall • Strong manifestation of La Niña in Dec 2010 / Jan 2011 caused an early onset of monsoon rainfall • Ongoing La Niña in April/Mai 2011 forced tropical cyclone tracks towards SEA • Remnants of five tropical cyclones intensified monsoon rainfalls • Total amount of rainfall exceeded 1500mm highest rainfall on record in the last 50 years

  3. HazardImpact of ENSO and La Niña • El Niño • cooler than average water East of SEA • birth of cyclones is in the Central Pacific • cool water diverts tracks North, Northeast • La Niña • warmer than average water East of SEA • warmer water means more moisture • causes the birth of cyclones closer to SEA • tracks are not blocked and remnants find their way into Vietnam / Thai Peninsula El Nino La Nina

  4. Hazard • Large area: 30'000 km2 inundated • high intensity: inundation depths greater 3 meters • Long duration: many sites where flooded more than 6 weeks

  5. Vulnerability • Highly susceptible occupancies • Electronics, High Tech, Car Manufacturing • High water levels and long duration

  6. Value Distribution and Insurance Conditions • high concentration of values in Industrial Estates along Chao Prayer river system • Most industrial risks were protected by all-risk insurance policies which include flood coverage • very few SMEs or home-owners had bought floodinsurance protection

  7. Thailand Floods 2011 • by far the largest ever fresh water flood loss in global history • similar loss magnitude as large earthquake or windstorm events • textbook example for natural catastrophe loss • size, intensity and duration of event were all large • occupancies of affected industrial risks were highly susceptible to water • high concentration of risks in industrial parks along Chao Praya river systems • very high insurance penetration for affected industrial risks • Surprise event in terms of size of insured loss

  8. Pakistan Flood 2010

  9. Facts & Figures • all four provinces were affected • 37,000 km2 had been inundated • 20 million of people were affected and about 2000 people died • Insured loss of ~0.5 billion USD • Economic loss of 10 billion USD • Impact of the total loss on Pakistan's economy is comparable to Thailand. However insured loss is only a small fraction.

  10. Hazard Normal monsoon conditions were enhanced by a combination of La Niña and a monsoon depression travelling further than normal into Pakistan

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