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Ecological Economics Lecture 14

Doctoral Program and Advanced Degree in Sustainable Energy Systems Doctoral Program in Mechanical Engineering Doctoral Program in Environmental Engineering. Ecological Economics Lecture 14. Tiago Domingos Assistant Professor Environment and Energy Section Department of Mechanical Engineering.

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Ecological Economics Lecture 14

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  1. Doctoral Program and Advanced Degree in Sustainable Energy SystemsDoctoral Program in Mechanical EngineeringDoctoral Program in Environmental Engineering Ecological EconomicsLecture 14 Tiago DomingosAssistant ProfessorEnvironment and Energy SectionDepartment of Mechanical Engineering

  2. Intrinsic vs. Existence Value Choice and knowledge Compensation Risk vs. Certainty Economic vs. Intrinsic value

  3. Problems - Welfare • The social decision rule is not complete, unless for any social decision everyone agrees on the best choice. • ... • It does not make a difference whether it is convex or not. One person get alls the resource, and it should be the person who obtains the highest utility from having all the resource.

  4. Sustainable DevelopmentDiscussion Question 1 • Sustainability can then only occur if the stock of natural capital is increasing.

  5. Sustainable DevelopmentDiscussion Question 2 • A possible synthesis between strong sustainability and weak sustainability is stating that natural capital items have prices that go to infinity as their quantity reaches a critical value.

  6. Sustainable DevelopmentProblem 1 a) ... b) GDP increases by 3 M$. • Note that there are no additional effects, since this has to be simultaneously an increase in added value and final demand. c) A priori, there is no decrease in bequest value, because the extraction costs will always have to be met. d) Note that the 2 M$ obtained can be invested in production capital.

  7. Bem-estar e Sustentabilidade em Economias Dinâmicas Contabilidade Verde para Portugal: 1992 – 2004 Rui Pedro Matias Gama Mota Orientador: Manuel Victor Moreira Martins Co-orientador: Tiago Morais Delgado Domingos

  8. Sumário • Enquadramento • Objectivos • Métodos • Resultados • Conclusões

  9. 1. Enquadramento • Necessidade de indicador agregado de: • Bem-estar; • Sustentabilidade. • Agregados das contas nacionais não incluem: • bens e serviços ambientais, lazer, (des)amenidades; • depreciação dos recursos naturais (stocks), e.g., solo, água, pescas; • ... • Necessidade de desenvolvimento de indicadores fundamentados na teoria económica.

  10. 2. Objectivos • Objectivos gerais: • Introduzir em Portugal o debate sobre indicadores de bem-estar e de sustentabilidade no contexto da contabilidade nacional. • Objectivos específicos: • Estimar o Produto Interno Líquido Verde (GNDP) e a Poupança Genuína (GS) para Portugal.

  11. 3. Métodos:Modelo de Crescimento Óptimo Multisectorial • Objectivo: • Dinâmica: • Possibilidades de produção:

  12. 3. Métodos:Relações Obtidas do Modelo • Medição do bem-estar: • Bem-estar: • Sugere que será possível estimar bem-estar (“forward looking”) usando informação sobre o presente. • Valor dos investimentos líquidos: • Alterações no bem-estar igualam “valor” dos investimentos líquidos.

  13. 3. Métodos:Relações em Preços Reais • Produto Interno Líquido Verde (GNDP): • Poupança Genuína (GS): • Variações do GNDP são proporcionais a variações de bem-estar. • Poupança (investimento) líquida negativa indica decréscimo de bem-estar. • Teste à teoria.

  14. 3. Métodos:Teste em Preços Reais • Desenvolvimento que proporcione utilidade não decrescente ao longo do tempo. • Teste de sustentabilidade: • Desenvolvimento não sustentável

  15. 3. Métodos:Modificação do Modelo Geral • Utilidade: ; • Capital manufacturado: • Capital natural:

  16. 4. Resultados: Alterações à Contabilidade Nacional • Alterações à contabilidade nacional: • Efeitos no bem-estar das emissões atmosféricas de 8 poluentes (fluxo); • Depreciação da floresta comercial (Pinhal Bravo e Eucaliptal). • Não contabilizado: • Depreciação de outros recursos (minérios, stock piscícola, solo, água); • Valor do progresso tecnológico; • Valor de serviços dos ecossistemas, ...

  17. 4. Resultados:Poluição Atmosférica • Custo marginal da poluição por poluente emitido [€2000/ton]: • Fontes: • Valorização: ExternE, COWI e BeTa. • Emissões: Inventário Nacional de Emissões

  18. 4. Resultados:Custo da Poluição Atmosférica • Custo associado a poluentes com efeito de estufa (CO2, CH4, N2O) é inferior ao custo associado a outros poluentes (SO2, NOx, PM10).

  19. 4. Resultados:Custo da Poluição Atmosférica • Comparação dos conjuntos de preços estimados: estimativas alta, baixa e melhor.

  20. 95/98 05/06 [m3/ha] 88.5 82.5 Pinheiro Bravo 55 55 Eucalipto 4. Resultados: Floresta Comercial • Inventário Florestal Nacional 2005/06 (DGRF) • Volumes médios:

  21. 4. Resultados: Depreciação por Espécie • Depreciação da floresta comercial portuguesa a partir de 1999.

  22. 4. Resultados: GNDP e suas Componentes • GNDP = GDP – CFC – eE + Depreciação da Floresta • Produto Interno Líquido Verde Português é cerca de 6 a 10% inferior ao usualmente definido pelas contas nacionais.

  23. 4. Resultados:Poupança Genuína • Tendência decrescente da poupança genuína, sendo negativa no final do período contabilizado.

  24. 4. Resultados:Teste à Teoria • Variação do GNDP é consideravelmente superior ao juro da poupança genuína.

  25. 4. Resultados:Análise de Sensibilidade, • Sensibilidade alta à taxa de juro e a alterações de interpretação entre despesas de consumo ou investimento em capital.

  26. 5. Conclusões • Como uma primeira abordagem à contabilidade nacional verde em Portugal incluíram-se os danos das emissões atmosféricas de poluentes, e a depreciação da floresta comercial para Portugal. • Os termos incluídos contabilizam cerca de 6-10% do PIL português, sendo: • Poluição atmosférica: 6 – 8%; • Depreciação de florestas de pinheiro bravo e eucalipto: -0.7 a 0.4 %. • Verifica-se uma tendência decrescente da poupança genuína no período 1992-2004 tornado-se negativa no início do século XXI, sugerindo desenvolvimento não sustentável. • Foram estimadas para Portugal variações no PIL Verde e a Poupança Genuína, confirmando um desajuste entre teoria e realidade.

  27. An indicator of GHG responsibility João Rodrigues Tiago Domingos François Schneider Stefan Giljum

  28. I. Introduction GHG responsibility GHG (or greenhouse gas) emissions – Quantity of GHG (measured in ton CO2-equivalent) emitted yearly by an agent (country or region). Different Indicators of GHG emissions exist: e.g., emissions physically occurring within the boundaries of the country, emissions required to produce consumption within the country. Here we choose a “fair” indicator – GHG responsibility – as the one that verifies a set of specified properties.

  29. III. Properties Motivation 1. Normalization – The sum of all responsibilities should equal all direct emissions. 2. Monotonicity – A decrease in responsibility and an increase in total emissions should not be allowed. 3. Additivity – The responsibility of two countries should be the sum of their individual responsibilities. 4. Strict accounting of indirect effects – Direct emissions should not considered. 5. Economic causality – Direct emissions should be allocated to economic flows, in proportion to their share of total inputs or outputs. 6. Symmetry – Upstream and downstream indirect effects should be equally accounted for.

  30. III. Properties Formalization • Additivity: k = k’ + k’’; Uk = Uk’ + Uk’’. • Normalization: UN = WN • (STRICT) Accounting indirect effects: Uk = Uk({vij},{v’ij}). • Economic causality: • Monotonicity: • Symmetry: U same if all vij and v’ji are interchanged. • NOTATION: N is world, v (v’) is upstream (downstream) carbon emission of an economic flow; m (m’) is upstream (downstream) carbon intensity of a sector.

  31. III. Properties Sketch of the proof • From accounting of indirect effects and economic causality, • {vij}, {v’ij} are uniquely determined – the upstream and and downstream GHG emission of economic flow ij. • Additivity imposes that Uk is a weighted sum of {vij}, {v’ij} for some set of flows {ij}. • Monotonicity and additivity together impose that intersectorial flows cannot be considered. • Lemma: implies • Symmetry and normalization determine the coefficients, ensuring...

  32. IV. Conclusions Computation … that GHG responsibility exists and is unique. for all sectors i that compose country k. and . M = (I - A)-1B and M’=BT(I – A’), where A and A’ are respectively the Leontieff and the Ghosh matrices.

  33. Revised Syllabus I • Scale (ecology), distribution (ethics), efficiency (economics), constraints (thermodynamics) • Ecological vs. Environmental and Natural Resource Economics • Formal analogy • Microeconomics and thermodynamics • Biophysical valuation • Industrial ecology, industrial metabolism • Substantive integration • Thermodynamics and ecology: DEB • Thermodynamics and economics: Ayres • Epistemology and sociology of science • Ethics and welfare • Static vs. intertemporal optimisation • Lagrangian multipliers • Maximum principle

  34. Revised Syllabus II • Microeconomics • Review of consumer theory • Review of producer theory • Review of market structures • Game theory • Evolutionary and institutional economics • Pollution economics; pollution control instruments

  35. Market Equilibria and Externalities MSC MPC Social optimum Market equilibrium MPB y

  36. Revised Syllabus III • Ecological and economic networks • Life Cycle Analysis • Input-Output Analysis • Computable General Equilibrium Models • Indicators of environmental responsibility • Economic valuation methods • Intertemporal choice and uncertainty • Uncertainty • Discount rate • Cost-benefit analysis;

  37. Revised Syllabus IV • Sustainable development • Weak vs. strong sustainability • Economic growth theory • Neoclassical and endogenous • Ayres • Economic theory of sustainable development • Biophysical and other indicators of sustainable development • Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare • Ecological Footprint • Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production • EcoIndicator95, EcoIndicator99 • Environmental Kuznets hypothesis

  38. Detailed Syllabus I • Static optimisation problems • Consumer optimisation • Producer optimisation • Interior vs. corner solutions • Consumer theory • Properties of preference relations • Indifference curves • Utility functions • Demand curves (consumer and consumers) • Elasticities • Producer theory • Returns to scale • Fixed vs. variable costs; short-run vs. long-run • Supply curves (firm and industry)

  39. Detailed Syllabus II • Market Equilibria • Essentially applications to pollution economics • Pollution Economics • Market equilibria vs. social optima • Calculations of changes in surpluses and externalities • Effects of applying taxes or subsidies • Economic Valuation • Willingness to Pay, Willingness to Accept, Surplus • Components of Total Economic Value • Basic ideas on economic valuation methods • Discount Rate and Uncertainty • Components of the discount rate • Elasticity of marginal utility • Properties of expected utility • Discount rate vs. inflation • Nominal vs. real prices

  40. Detailed Syllabus III • Ethics and Welfare • Individual choice vs. social choice and their properties • Kant vs. utilitarianism vs. Rawls vs. libertarianism • Sustainable Development • Discussion of different definitions of sustainable development • Weak vs. strong sustainability • Natural vs. manufactured capital • National and Input-Output Accounting • Final demand, intermediate demand, valued added (factor payments), primary inputs (or factors of production) • Input-output algebra • Direct vs. indirect requirements • National accounting conventions • Limitations of GDP • Nominal/current price GDP vs. real/constant price GDP • Purchasing power parity

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