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On-going and planned projects with ECHAM

On-going and planned projects with ECHAM. Martin Wild, Doris Folini, Adeline Bichet, Maria Hakuba, Christoph Schär IACETH. Simulations with ECHAM5-HAM. Model ECHAM5-HAM (updated from Stier et al. 2005), Version Oct. 2008 Detailed aerosol treatment (prognostic equations for number and mass)

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On-going and planned projects with ECHAM

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  1. On-going and planned projects with ECHAM Martin Wild, Doris Folini, Adeline Bichet, Maria Hakuba, Christoph Schär IACETH

  2. Simulations with ECHAM5-HAM Model ECHAM5-HAM (updated from Stier et al. 2005), Version Oct. 2008 Detailed aerosol treatment (prognostic equations for number and mass) Experiments (carried out by Doris Folini at CSCS) - Transient simulations (atmosphere only, prescribed SSTs) - Historic emission inventories: NIES - Resolutions from T42L19 to T106L31 List of Ensembles Simulations #members: 1870 – 2000, default “all forcings“ simulations, T42 (T63) 13 (9) Sensitivity experiments: 1950 – 2000, SO2 emissions at level of 1950, T42 3 1950 – 2000, BC / OC emissions at level of 1950, T42 3 1870– 2000, all anth. aerosol emissions constant, T42 (T63) 6 (3) 1870 – 2000, all anth. aerosol emissions constant, no volcanoes: 3 1870 – 2000, fixed climatological SSTs, T42 (T63) 13 (1)

  3. Research focus Significant decadal changes in the observed components of the Earth energy and water balance • What are the origins of these changes? • What is their impact on climate system components and climate change? • How will these components evolve in the future? Atmospheric transmission 1950-2002 Observed precipitation NH mean land “dimming” “brightening” “dimming” “brightening” Wild et al. 2005: Science 308

  4. Research focus: origins of changes • What are the origins of these changes? • => sensitivity studies, impact of various types of aerosol on decadal changes in surface solar radiation constant aerosol emissions Surface solar radiation: constant versus variable aerosol emissions variable aerosol emissions 1950-2000 1950-2000 Varying only SO2or BC emissions Folini et al. in prep.

  5. Impact of dimming on precipitation in China Research focus: impacts Annual mean precipitation constant aerosol emissions historic aerosol emissions Suppression of precipitation with dimming in China

  6. Impact of dimming on precipitation in China Summer precipitation total precipitation JJA constant aerosol emissions variable aerosol emissions convective large scale Suppression of convective precipitation with dimming

  7. Research focus: impacts Impact of SSTs and aerosols on global land precipitation PhD Thesis Adeline Bichet: Precipitation evolution since the late 19th century Bichet et al., submitted

  8. Research focus: impacts Impact of reduced Greenland topography on precipitation Change in precipitation with topography reduced by 50% T106 simulations Overall increase in precipitation with decreasing topography Master Thesis Maria Hakuba

  9. Research focus: scenarios • How will the Earth energy and water balance components evolve in the future? 1950 - 2020 Surface clear sky insolation in NH midlatitudes ECHAM5-HAM with ENSEMBLE SSTs Transition into a new dimming? Coupled model desirable

  10. Future Plans with ECHAM • Research focus on changes in theenergyandwatercyclesbased on multidecadal transient simulations • Neartermexperiments: • Carry out multidecadal transient simulationswithnew model versions ECHAM6 and ECHAM6-HAM (sensitivitystudies) • Use ECHAM6-HAM withnewemissioninventoriesfrom IPCC AR5, comparisonto NIES andotherinventories, comparisontoearlier ECHAM5-HAM simulations • Mid termexperiments: • Use a coupledAtmosphere-Oceanversionof ECHAM6 (ECHAM6-HAM?) tostudyimpactsofchanges in theradiationbalance on variousclimatesystemcomponentsincludingoceanfeedbacks. • High resolution (T213?) time slice experimentsforpresentandfutureclimates (e.g. for mass balancechangesof polar icesheets) • All simulationdatacanbemadeavailabletootherinterestedgroups

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