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Dr. William H. Glick

Plenary Session Three. Thought Leadership on Risk and Change. Dr. William H. Glick Dean and H. Joe Nelson III Professor of Management at the Jesse H. Jones Graduate School of Business Rice University. Perfect Storm. Is the current storm good or bad for your firm?.

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Dr. William H. Glick

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  1. Plenary Session Three Thought Leadership onRisk and Change Dr. William H. Glick Dean and H. Joe Nelson III Professor of Management at the Jesse H. Jones Graduate School of Business Rice University

  2. Perfect Storm Is the current storm good or bad for your firm?

  3. Returning to Normal Profits Are you trying to be the first in your sector to return to normal profitability?

  4. Silver Lining in Storm Cloud “Watch out for emergencies. They are your big chance.” Fritz Reiner Symphonic Conductor

  5. Don’t waste a crisis "Never let a serious crisis go to waste…it's an opportunity to do things you couldn't do before.” Rahm Emmanuel White House Chief of Staff

  6. Crisis is an Asset “When you have a crisis, the crisis itself becomes one of your biggest assets … Everyone gets very modest and humble and listens. If you need to do rough things, you do rough things.” Carl-HenricSvanberg President and CEO of Ericsson Incoming Chairman of BP

  7. Crises Force Us to Think "Crises and deadlocks … have at least this advantage, that they force us to think.” Jawaharlal Nehru First Prime Minister of India

  8. Academic Perspective “There is no crisis to which academics will not respond with a seminar.” Old saying

  9. Crises Stimulate Change • Great Depression • Photocopies • Television • Paperback Books • Jet Engine

  10. Crises Stimulate Change Great Depression LSD Car Radio

  11. Dot.Bomb Crises Stimulate Change iTunes 99¢ Solution

  12. Reinvention as Competency • Seismic Exploration to Submarine Detection • Cell Phones to Embedded Processors

  13. Capacity to Change Energy Industry has Demonstrated Capacity to Change Deep sea exploration Sugar based ethanol

  14. Confronting Change Mergers National Oil Companies

  15. What happens to you? Disrupted or Disruptive Innovator? How can you survive and thrive as the change leader?

  16. Simple Model of Change Unfreeze Move Refreeze

  17. Challenge of Change Unfreeze • Knowing when to change • Challenging beliefs

  18. Supply Chain Volatility Amplification:“The Bullwhip Effect” Retailer Customer Distributor Factory Equipment Tier 1 Supplier Information lags Delivery lags Over- and under ordering Misperceptions of feedback Lumpiness in ordering Chain accumulations SOLUTIONS: Countercyclical Markets Countercyclical Technologies Collaborative channel mgmt. (Cincinnati Milacron & Boeing) Source: Fine, MIT

  19. Feeling the Crack of the Whip Are you on the wrong end of the bull whip?

  20. Scapegoats Is Scapegoating effective?

  21. Unfreezing Beliefs • Lead, follow, or get out of the way • We have a winning team, but game has changed • Compelling case for action/ burning platform • Reframing context as opportunity rather than a threat

  22. Opportunities for Change Move • Creative exploration • Thriving on knowledge of others • Crafting a vision • Communicating a vision

  23. Reinforcing Change Refreeze • Small wins • Positive reinforcement • Creating heroes

  24. Simple Model of Change Unfreeze Move Refreeze

  25. Which Crisis? Which crisis will give you the greatest opportunity? Access to reserves (4) Uncertain energy policy (6) Price volatility (new) Cost containment (3) Worsening fiscal terms (2) Human capital deficit (1) Climate & environmental concerns (8) Competing services from IOCS & OFS (new) Supply shocks (9) Aging infrastructure (new) 2009 (2008) Ernst & Young Business Risk Report – Oil & Gas

  26. Legacy of 1980’s Lessons from the past Dramatic down-sizing Inability to predict long-term prices Bullwhip effects on supply chain Talent supply chain

  27. Rebuilding Talent Supply Executive Education Executive, Professional, and Full-time MBAs Undergraduates K-12 focus on science and math

  28. Energy at Rice Center for Energy Education & Leadership Jones Graduate School of Business Rice MBA concentration in energy management Fulbright & Jaworski Energy Director’s Conference Energy Finance Forum Baker Institute for Public Policy Richard E. Smalley Institute for Nanoscale Science & Technology /AEC Rice’s Energy & Environmental Systems Institute

  29. Conclusion Strategic change starts with an idea The winner in the next decade will be the smartest investor, not the first to turn a profit

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