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Quantifying Central Committee: Approach and Applications

Quantifying Central Committee: Approach and Applications. Victor Shih Department of Political Science, Northwestern University Wei Shan Department of Political Science, Duke University Mingxing Liu Peking University, Central Finance and Economic University.

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Quantifying Central Committee: Approach and Applications

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  1. Quantifying Central Committee: Approach and Applications Victor Shih Department of Political Science, Northwestern University Wei Shan Department of Political Science, Duke University Mingxing Liu Peking University, Central Finance and Economic University

  2. Data: Central Committee (CC) Database • The data quantify all the available biographical information of CC and Alternate CC members from 1921 to 2007 • Each observation (row) represents one CC member • Columns keep track of all the basic demographic variables: birth year, gender, education level…etc. • Additional columns record positions held, start year, and end year (Adolph 2003) • This creates a large database, but one can make logical statements to identify a number of sub-populations among CC members.

  3. A Look at the Original Data Chair, Mass Organization Member, secretariat Member, CAC Vice-secretary, CAC

  4. Some Problems and Solutions • Coding Errors • Solution: Hire Two Coders to Code the Entire Database Separately • Pre-1949 Positions Unclear, except for Party • Solution: develop a detailed picture of the evolution of the Red Army and party before 1949 (on-going) • Bureaucracies Shift Too much • Solution: “Successor Principle” with some caveats • Too Many Positions in the Bureaucracy (below ministerial level) • Solution: All positions are pegged to ministries, provinces, MR, branches of PLA • Overall, new information can easily be incorporated by adding more columns

  5. Average Birth Year of CC Members

  6. Average Education Level of CC Members

  7. Factional Influence Indicators (with Shan and Liu) • We record the share of CC members with birth, education, or work ties with a PSC member. • Sounds simple, but it requires highly complex logical statements to derive an annual indicator because we need to: • Select people who are CC members in a particular year AND • Select those with birth and education ties with the PSC member OR • Those who have worked at a particular danwei at the same time that the PSC member worked there

  8. Do the data accord with intuition? Hua Guofeng versus Hu Yaobang

  9. Jiang versus Qiao versus Hu

  10. Chairman Mao: A Reinterpretation Mao Formally Takes Over 8th Party Congress 9th Party Congress 10th Party Congress 7th Party Congress

  11. Who gets ahead in the CC? (with Adolph and Liu)

  12. CCP Rewards Growth?

  13. Does it pay to follow Hu Jintao?

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