1 / 16

Presentation to Hershey Airport Conference March 7, 2007 Patrick Sullivan, P.E. APP-400

Presentation to Hershey Airport Conference March 7, 2007 Patrick Sullivan, P.E. APP-400 FAA National Planning and Environmental Division. AVIATION FORECASTS AND AIRPORT DEVELOPMENT. AIRPORT SPONSOR FORECASTS.

aerona
Télécharger la présentation

Presentation to Hershey Airport Conference March 7, 2007 Patrick Sullivan, P.E. APP-400

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Presentation to Hershey Airport Conference March 7, 2007 Patrick Sullivan, P.E. APP-400 FAA National Planning and Environmental Division AVIATION FORECASTS AND AIRPORT DEVELOPMENT

  2. AIRPORT SPONSOR FORECASTS • Airport sponsors generate aviation forecasts (local forecasts) for use in defining scope and timing of airport development

  3. WHY DOES FAA CARE ABOUT AIRPORT SPONSOR FORECASTS? • FAA uses sponsor forecasts in its decision making, including: • Noise, air quality, airfield modeling, access analyses in an EA or EIS • Airfield modeling, delay and capacity analyses in BCA • AIP and PFC approvals for; airfield, terminal and access improvements are based on demonstrated demand

  4. WHAT IS A GOOD FORECAST? • One with: • Accurate baseline data • Based on realistic assumptions • Using appropriate methodologies • Specifying the information and analysis used

  5. BASELINE DATA • What: Historic operations and enplanements • Accurate baseline data is available for towered airports, air carrier enplanements and operations that file a flight plan (ETMS) • TAF often “flatlines” forecasts in cases of uncertain baseline data • Baseline data can be improved through aircraft counting programs-AIP eligible • State DOT and MPO can do counting

  6. METHODOLOGIES/ ASSUMPTIONS • Guidance on how to prepare an aviation forecast is contained in Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport, July 2001. See:http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics/aviation_data_statistics • Forecast should be based on latest available data • Specify nature and use of methodologies • Regression analysis preferred, if correlated • Always support assumptions (Load factor, fleet mix, seats/aircraft)

  7. PLANNING JUSTIFICATION FOR CRITICAL AIRCRAFT • Prefer airline/user support letters or contracts for new service, based aircraft or change in facility use (i.e. new flight school) • Letters should specify the following and be signed by authorized official: • Current constraints (payload/stage) • Projected number of operations by aircraft • Stage length of projected operations • Date service is expected to start • Airfield and landside facilities needed

  8. TAF UPDATES AND EIS PLANNING DATA: COMMERCIAL OPERATIONS • TAF forecasts short term (2 year) commercial operations based on recent history and OAG • TAF Long term forecast based on regression analysis (yield and personal income) • Sponsor forecast should be approved as close to EIS/EA Notice of Intent as possible using current numbers and analysis • Even at this, long term nature of environmental process can result in variance with TAF • Examine issue in 2007-Forecast averaging

  9. FAA REVIEWS OF AIRPORT SPONSOR FORECASTS • Forecast approval always rests with ADO/regional office • Forecasts that require FAA HQ review: • Those not consistent with the TAF • Forecasts for complex projects with potential for controversy, even if the forecast is consistent with the TAF

  10. WHAT DOES FAA LOOK FOR IN REVIEW OF SPONSOR FORECAST? • Realistic assumptions • Appropriate forecast methodologies • Report contains information and analysis used • Forecasts are consistent with TAF

  11. CONSISTENCY OF SPONSOR FORECAST AND TAF Forecasts consistent if they differ less than 10 percent in 5-year period and 15 percent in 10-year period • Total operations • Total enplanements • Based aircraft

  12. MATERIAL NEEDED FOR FAA REVIEW OF AIRPORT SPONSOR FORECAST • Side-by-side comparison: see templates in “Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport.” • Enplanement, activity and based aircraft levels (baseline and trends) • Assumptions (i.e. load factors, average seats, Operations per based aircraft) • Forecast methodologies (i.e. regression)

  13. ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS IN PLANNING • In master plan, identify alternatives that FAA/sponsor can do to meet need • MP not intended to establish a single alternative for NEPA evaluation, but may establish sponsor’s preferred alternative • Conduct airspace reviews (NRA) to see if alternatives work • Dismiss and document alternatives that do not planning need, or are not feasible/reasonable

  14. BEST PRACTICES FOR SURFACE ACCESS TO AIRPORTS Guidance available at: http://www.faa.gov/airports_airtraffic/airports/resources/publications/reports/media/bulletin_1_surface_access_best_practices.pdf

  15. BEST PRACTICES SURFACE ACCESS TO AIRPORTS • The following topics discussed in the best practice document: • Use of PFC, AIP and airport revenue for ground access projects • Coordination of airport access needs with surface transportation agencies • Research projects, surface access planning

  16. CONTACT • Patrick J. Sullivan, P.E. Phone: 202-267-3707 E-mail: patrick.sullivan@faa.gov

More Related