Case Study: Syria Keisuke Fujita, Taro Kimura, George Chen
Syria • Population of 22,530,746 • Leader: President Bashar al-Assad • Muslim is not a state religion, but the president has to be one in the constitution • Current civil war has ethnic divides • Government leaders tend to be Alawi Muslims • Opposition mostly Sunni Muslims
Background Oct. 1918 - British backed Arabs end 400 year Ottoman rule, take Damascus Jun. 1920 - Syria-Lebanon placed under French rule 1922 - Syria made an autonomous region 1925-26 - uprising against French rule 1936 - Syria independence, but France still has military and economic control 1949 - Adib al-Shishakhli takes power in 3rd coup of the year 1954 - army leads coup against Al-Shishakhli, returns power to civilian gov. Mar. 1963 - coup by army officers - Amin al-Hafez becomes president, internal coup in 3 years and again in 1970 Mar. 1971 - Hafez al-Assd elected president
Background 2 1980 - Muslim uprisings in Aleppo, Homs, and Hama Feb. 1982 - military suppresses Muslim uprising in Hama - human rights org. accuse military of killing tens of thousands of civilians Tensions with Israel and helping US with Iraq Jun 2000 - Assad dies, second son Bashar takes over Sep. 2001 - parlimentarians and activists arresting begins (throughout rest of decade) May 2004 - US sanctions Syria on supporting terrorism and allowing miltants to enter Iraq May 2007 - dissident Kamai Labwani and writer Michel Kilo jailed - h.r. lawyer Anwar al-Bunni soon after May 2010 - US renews sanctions despite thawing relations for terrorist support
Overview of the current situation in Syria According to NY times, at this time... 40,000 deaths estimated more than 400,000 registered as refugee 1.2 million of internally displaced people 2.5 million Syrian need humanitarian aid
The course of the situation in Syria in 2011 1/26 2011 Inspired by similar events across the region, protests began against the ruling regime in Syria. March 2011 Protest actions escalated across Syria. On 15 March, state security forces responded with violent repression. 4/21 2011 Although emergency which had been in effect for nearly 50 years law was lifted, Assad introduced a new executive order to restrict demonstration. 4/29 2011 The Human Rights Council adopted a resolution to condemn Assad's military actions to respond demonstrations
The course of the situation in Syria in 2011 6/8 2011 UK, France, Germany and Portugal circulated a draft resolution which condemned Syria, but Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil hesitated to discuss it concerning excessive interference by the Security Council 6/24 2011 Europe Union imposed further economic sanctions on Syria 7/29 2011 A group of defected officers announced the formation of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) August 2011 Islamic countries began to criticize Assad Government
The course of the situation in Syria in 2011 8/3 2011 The Security Council adopted a presidential statement which condemned Syria. This was the first action by the Security Council 8/23 2011 A coalition of anti-government groups was formed, the Syrian National Council. 10/4 2011 China and Russia vetoed a draft resolution, sponsored by France, Germany, Portugal and the UK, which condemned the Syrian crackdown on protestors. Brazil, India, Lebanon and South Africa abstained. 11/28 2011 Arab League imposed economic sanctions on Syria
Response from the UN in 2011 UNSC 6/8 2011 the first draft resolution was submitted to the Security council and it failed to pass 10/4 2011 the second draft resolution was submitted. it demanded Syria to cease violations of human rights, allow the full exercise of human rights and fundamental freedoms, cease the use of force against civilians, Human Rights Council 4/29 2011 it strongly condemned military response to peaceful demonstrations, urged Syria to do so, and called upon release of political prisoners General Assembly 12/19 2011 it condemned the violence in Syria and called upon the Syrian authorities to implement the Plan of Action of the League of Arab States
Plan of Action of the League of Arab States • Stop all acts of violence committed by any side in order to protect Syrian citizens. • Release all detainees arrested from the beginning of the crisis. • Withdraw all military equipment and artillery from cities and residential neighborhoods. • Allow Arab League-affiliated organizations as well as Arab and international media outlets full access to move freely in Syria to monitor the situation on the ground.
The course of the situation in Syria in 2012 2/4 2012 UNSC draft resolution condemning the violence in Syria was vetoed by China and Russia with all other Council members voting in favor 2/16 2012 The General Assembly adopted a resolution which additionally requested the Secretary-General to appoint a special envoy for Syria 2/29 2012 Kofi Annan was appointed as the UN-Arab League Joint Special Envoy for Syria 4/14 2012 Resolution 2042 was adopted and had authorised the deployment of 30 unarmed military observers to Syria and offered "six-point proposal" 4/21 2012 Resolution 2043 to authorize the establishment of United Nations Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS) was adopted
Six point proposal by Annan -work with the Envoy to address the legitimate aspiration and concerns of the Syrian People -stop the fighting and achieve ceasefire under UN supervision -ensure provision of humanitarian assistance -release unjustly detained people -ensure freedom of movement for journalists -respect freedom of association and the right to demonstrate peacefully as legally guaranteed
The course of the situation in Syria in 2012 7/19 2012 A draft resolution under Chapter VII was vetoed by China and Russia with Pakistan and South Africa abstaining 7/20 2012 The Council adopted resolution 2059 renewing UNSMIS for a final period of thirty days and conditioning any further renewal on the cessation of the use of heavy weapons by the Syrian government and a reduction in violence by all sides 7/22 2012 The Arab League called on Assad to renounce power for a safe exit 8/2 2012 Kofi Annan announced his resignation as Special Envoy 8/3 2012 the General Assembly adopted a resolution deploring the Security Council’s failure to act on Syria and calling for a political transition (there were 133 votes in favour, 12 against and 31 abstentions) 8/17 2012 Lakhdar Brahimi was appointed as the Joint Special Representative for Syria 8/19 2012 The UNSMIS mandate expired and was not renewed
The course of the situation in Syria in 2012 October 2012 UN-brokered ceasefire during the Islamic holiday of Eid al-Adha breaks down as government continues attacks. 11/11 2012 Several major opposition forces unite as National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces at meeting in Qatar, including the Syrian National Council 12/13 2012 The United States would formally recognize the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces as that country's legitimate representative
Response from the UN in 2012 UNSC ・Resolution 2042 It authorised the deployment of 30 military observers to Syria and called upon Syria to cease troop movements, all use of heavy weapons in population centers. It offered "six-point proposals" ・Resolution 2043 It established United Nations Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS) comprised by 300 unarmed military observers to monitor ceasefire. ・Resolution 2059 It extended UNSMIS for a final period of 30 days
Response from the UN in 2012 UNSC ・Draft resolution on 4 February in 2012 five key aspects: an end to all acts of violence; release of detainees; withdrawal of armed forces from civilian areas; guarantee of the freedom of peaceful demonstrations; and freedom of access to the UN, NGOs and human rights monitors. in the event of non-compliance, UNSC would consider further measures. without any arms embargoes and sanctions on Syria ・Draft resolution on 19 July in 2012 under the chapter 7 of the UN Charter, it implied further measures would be imposed in the case that Syria could not fulfill ceasefire and complete pullback from population centers. without any arms embargoes and sanctions on Syria again
Response from the UN in 2012 General Assembly A/RES/66/253 it condemned the violence in Syria, endorsed the Arab League’s 22 January on a Syrian political transition, and requested the Secretary-General to appoint a special envoy for Syria. A/RES/66/253 B it deplored the Security Council’s failure to act on Syria and called for a political transition Human Rights Council A/HRC/RES/20/22 The Human Rights Council adopted this resolution which condemned the gross human rights violations and indiscriminate targeting of civilians in Syria by government authorities and the Shabiha.
Individual government responses Turkey 6/22 2012 a Turkish fighter was shot down 10/3 2012 a skirmish between borders happened Turkey is one of the strongest countries on Syria Russia 1/8 2012 a fleet sailed into Syria 2/8 2012 the foreign minister talked with Assad Russia persists in protection of Assad government United States 5/29 2012 deported diplomats 12/13 2012 recognized opposition party as formal representative of Syria US (Obama) persists in trying to solve the problem by talks unless chemical weapons are not used
R2P Clauses • Theoretical Stage - no action taken yet • even when clauses that enable embargoes and sanctions were removed, major UN resolutions blocked • Another check of R2P to guide international action • Guatemalan and French Ministers of Foreign Affaris Harold Caballeros and Alain Juppé both reference • "the obligation of all States to observe norms of conduct in relation to their own populations" • "responsibility to protect its civilian population"
R2P - Just Cause - • 26000 - 35000 civilians dead • 4000-5000 rebel fighters • 9500 Syrian regime forces • 500 unidentifiable • Loss of life, excessive force, ignoring international community
R2P - Proportional Means • No direct intervention • loss of life continued for 2 years after initial protest • Sanctions from U.S., E.U., and even Arab League but not directly from U.N. • blocked by Russia and China
R2P - Right Intention - • Strong humanitarian motive for action • Even League of Arab Nations critical of Syria • Delays because legality and sovereignty, politicized situation • Mission, Russia's links to Syria - Tartus base • General Assembly condemning Security Council's on Feb. 4 and Jul. 9 Drafts • Failure to act on "Uniting for Peace"
R2P - Right Authority - • No intervention yet, so still respecting sovereignty of Syria via Art. 2 • Effort to respect authority of Arab League and local politics • UNSMIS and Arab League mission • Generally a solid grounds for R2P intervention • legacy backlash of Libya and Arab Spring • Failed to move promptly
R2P - Last Resort - • Not applicable • Use of resolutions and special U.S. Envoy UNSMIS • Worked with local Arab league • vetoed resolutions by Russia and China • Tensions have continued for two years ultimately still not acting to directly interfere with a dangerously tense situation for better or worse
R2P - Reasonable Prospects - • General Assembly condemned the Security Council • Support of Arab League • Concerns about actual process and aftermath • comparison to Libya
Libya's aftereffects • R2P still has tension from Libya where NATO authority overreached - similar to Bush-era concerns with Darfur • China's concern with regime change • Possible need to reform Security Council for when dealing with mass atrocity
Syria Now - International positions • EU tabling more severe measures - change embargo to supply rebels suggested by Britain • blocked - wait until Jan 28 for further discussion • Recognition of Syrian National Council • US, UK, France, Egypt • 114 countries total • Russia's support - concerned about rebels - Dec. 13
Syria Now - Locally • Nov - Regime forces leave Kurdish areas, allowing Kurds to take over, overwhelmingly in peace • Opposition setting up a framework to maintain state institutions for if al-Assad falls • fighting continues - Opposition believes it doesn't need support now - Dec. 13 • al-Assad - chemical weapons - Scud missles - Dec. 12
References -Security Council Report, Syria, [Online], [accessed 12/16 2012] available from http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/syria/ -International Coalition for the Responsibility to Protect, Crisis in Syria, [Online], [accessed 12/16 2012] available from http://www.responsibilitytoprotect.org/index.php/crises/crisis-in-syria#back -International Coalition for the Responsibility to Protect, UN Security Councils Fails to Uphold its Responsibility to Protect in Syria, [Online], [accessed 12/16 2012] available from http://icrtopblog.org/2011/10/07/un-security-council-fails-to-uphold-its-responsibility-to-protect-in-syria/ -New York Times, Syria News, [Online], [accessed 12/16 2012] availabe from http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/syria/index.html?8qa -Evan Centanni, Political Geography Now, Syria Uprising Map: October 2012 (#7), [Online], [accessed 12/16 2012] available from http://www.polgeonow.com/2012/10/syria-uprising-map-october-2012-7.html -BBC, Syria profile - Timeline, [Online]. [accessed 12/16 2012] avaiable from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14703995
References 2 -New York Times, Syria News, [Online], [accessed 12/16 2012] availabe from http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/syria/index.html?8qa -Evan Centanni, Political Geography Now, Syria Uprising Map: October 2012 (#7), [Online], [accessed 12/16 2012] available from http://www.polgeonow.com/2012/10/syria-uprising-map-october-2012-7.html -BBC, Syria profile - Timeline, [Online]. [accessed 12/16 2012] avaiable from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14703995
References 3 - Vivienne Walt, Syria's Body Count: Meet the Exile Tracking the Death Toll [Online]. [accessed 12/16 2012] available from http://world.time.com/2012/11/13/syrias-body-count-meet-the-exile-tracking-the-death-toll/ Reuters http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/14/us-syria-crisis-eu-idUSBRE8BD0HN20121214 http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/13/us-syria-crisis-usa-idUSBRE8BC1I820121213 http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/15/us-syria-opposition-state-idUSBRE8BE0D320121215 http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/14/us-syria-crisis-eu-idUSBRE8BD0HN20121214 http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/13/us-syria-crisis-russia-idUSBRE8BC1AW20121213