Foresight

1. Foresight acting on the trends that matter

2. Introductions • Space Capsule – supported by Mission CONTROL • Supertanker Captain – supported by a team of tugs • Helicopter Pilot - on your own and loving it! RETHINK (West) Inc.

3. FORESIGHT - Definitions • Perception of the significance and nature of events before they have occurred. Free Dictionary • Care in providing for the future; prudence Free Dictionary • The ability to see what might happen in the future Merriam-Webster • The act of looking forward Collins • The ability to predict what will happen or be needed in the future Oxford RETHINK (West) Inc.

4. TRENDS - Quotes • The general direction in which something tends to move Free Dictionary • The general course or prevailing tendency Dictionary.com • Looking at a (possible trend) is an opportunity to reflect on the present me • I don’t set trends. I just find out what they are and exploit them. Dick Clark • When in doubt, predict that the present trend will continue. Anonymous • The best way to predict your future – is to invent it. John Scully, Apple RETHINK (West) Inc.

5. 30 yearsof reflection on trends that matter • The Elora Prescription – 1978 • Fortress Futures – 1980 • countless collegial future/trend workshops all over North America • Leisure Watch – 1990 to 1995 • Outdoor Recreation forecasts – GVRD, BC Protected Area Strategy – 1992/94 • Red Cross Foresight – 1993 to 1998 • Tourism Into the 21st Century – MBA program • Future of Sport, Future of Voluntarism – Edmonton • TrendScan for Protected Area Managers, Canadian Parks Council – 2005/06 • Future of Winter Tourism, Canadian Tourism Commission - 2007 RETHINK (West) Inc.

6. A person who is not entirely content with the present … and is willing to invest energy in developing a better alternative Tools available: scenario building understanding current issues and imagining them as they play out trend analysis prediction/best guess prescription/best solution A FUTURIST RETHINK (West) Inc.

7. A person who is not entirely content with the present … and is willing to invest energy in developing a better alternative Tools available: vision and clear outcomes environmental scan/SWOT trend analysis market research new programs/services human resources financial resources branding/positioning/ marketing A PROGRESSIVE MANAGER RETHINK (West) Inc.

8. The Transformational Leader RETHINK (West) Inc.

9. Why do managers pay attention to trends … Insight to help position agency on emerging stakeholder agendas Early indicators of shifts in consumer interests - marketing Identify emerging best practices Indicators of impending resource or supply problems Trends Identification of opportunities Warnings of shifts in funder priorities/interests Early alert to emerging threats RETHINK (West) Inc.

10. The Critical Reason to pay attention to trends To avoid building something (supply) that is very expensive and will last 50 years; in a situation where demand is declining and could be insignificant in 20 years. RETHINK (West) Inc.

11. To what extent do YOU pay attention to trends? • scanning system in place • regular reflection/discussion • have changed as a result Manage withForesight A B • have a few good sources • use trend information regularly TrendScanner • use trend information from time to time • my organization scans/feeds me C Supported Trendscanner • I’d like to pay more attention • but never seem to get around to it • conference sessions help/suffice Good Intentions/ No Time D • just too busy with the real stuff • not in my job description, not accountable E/F Not part of my job RETHINK (West) Inc.

12. www.foresight-trendscan.blogspot.com RETHINK (West) Inc.

13. The Concept – only the foundations laid Towards a vital, engaging and sustainable online platform to facilitate: • Access to trend information • Awareness and discussion about predictions and prescriptions • Ongoing strategic dialogue about this all means for the future of the leisure industries. RETHINK (West) Inc.

14. Imagine A place to turn to when you need trend information - facts: • ongoing professional monitoring of trend sources related to leisure, leisure behaviours, related services, and leadership competencies – summaries on line, links available if more detail is required • a community of trendwatchers representing every aspect of the leisure industries networked and regularly submitting material and links – a shared commitment to keeping up to date RETHINK (West) Inc.

15. Imagine A hub of debate about future possibilities - insight: • predictions or prescriptions about the future of leisure, leisure behaviours, and related service needs - identified, summarized and linked • synopsis of and links to similar discussions about more generic leadership competencies: community planning and development, human resource management, diversity, resource development, marketing/communications • blogs by individuals with foresight talking about what it all means • forums that facilitate active reflection and comment on trends, predictions and prescriptions • regular theme papers (blogs) by the moderators – catalysts for debate. RETHINK (West) Inc.

16. Imagine A service to help leisure industries focus on the future - consensus: • dialogue that shifts foresight to strategy • a network that constantly generates recommendations for the leisure industries to consider as they plan for their future in dynamic operating environments • regular DELPHI work with trendwatchers/participants to find agreement on how best to react, position and prepare • a service that builds our collective confidence about moving forward. RETHINK (West) Inc.

17. The Trends That Matter • State of the Field • Emerging Leisure Classes • Recession Leisure Behaviour • Digital Age Behaviour • Outcome Focus RETHINK (West) Inc.

18. State of the Recreation and Parks Field Loss of Lottery Funding in many provinces Federal Drop-Out Recreation Canada Fitness Canada Provincial Devolution diminished agencies and investment across Canada Decline in Participation Rates in many traditional programs/activities Wake Up Calls University Program Cuts or significant demotions Delivery by Other Fields • health, social work, education, justice - public works Loss of Departmental Status In many municipalities RETHINK (West) Inc.

19. Essential Preconditions to Leisure – Time &/or Money Time but no money Both time and money Current Private Sector • fee for service or membership • positioned for convenience Current Public Sector • modest fee for service • demanding schedules or use requirements to justify membership Historic Market • Scouting • YMCA • Boys and Girls Clubs • free public recreation Available Discretionary Time Available Discretionary Income Neither time nor money Money but no time RETHINK (West) Inc.

20. Emerging Leisure Classes – ready market Golden Oldies young seniors 10% Blessed Ones Age 55-70 15% DINKS baby boomers and gen X Available Discretionary Time Available Discretionary Income Fastest growing market as baby boom ages. Canadians over the age of 55 represent 26% of the population, have 60% of the discretionary spending power, and 78% of the personal wealth. Does your organization offer the quality and value they desire? RETHINK (West) Inc.

21. Emerging Leisure Classes – high demand, low/no profit Long Term Uninsured Disability Seniors on CPP/OAS (only) Single Parent Family Not working 20% Children Living in Poverty 15% Baby Busters (now 35-43) 18% Unemployed/ Underemployed 10 – 20% Available Discretionary Time Adults Living Alone 10.5% First Nations 4% Available Discretionary Income The most populated quadrant. Does your organization have an accessibility mandate? RETHINK (West) Inc.

22. Emerging Leisure Classes – challenge to reach Can your organization be there when this market has the time and energy? Weekly, scheduled programs not possible … Available Discretionary Income Self-Employed/ Entrepreneur Available Discretionary Time Executives Teenagers over 50% now have part time jobs Working Moms 80% with children under 13 have FT jobs RETHINK (West) Inc.

23. Emerging Leisure Classes – the disenfranchised Limited time/limited funds – does your organization have any interest? Available Discretionary Income Available Discretionary Time The Working Poor RETHINK (West) Inc.

24. Leisure Classes RETHINK (West) Inc.

25. Key Question – Key Strategy Question Is your organization optimally positioned on the discretionary time/discretionary income matrix? NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES Strategy Conduct an informal audit of current programs and services to identify which population cohorts might not have access due to either time or financial constraints. Clarify related policies and make service adjustments accordingly. RETHINK (West) Inc.

26. Observers are seeing a consistent pattern in how we are adapting our leisure in a recession environment … and predicting a permanent change in behaviour Less – voluntary simplicity More time at home Investing in your own ‘entertainment assets’ home entertainment electronics fitness equipment and related digital instruction Board games increasing in declining toy market Socializing online Valuing experience over commodities The Staycation Recession Leisure – cementing trends already in place RETHINK (West) Inc.

27. Key Question – Key Strategy Question Has your organization begun to strategically develop recreation opportunities that are less expensive and less dependent on specialized facilities located at some distance from the user’s home? NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES Strategy Develop a portfolio of marketable programs and/or services that are low cost and utilize readily accessible, multi-use local facilities. Develop a series of services that are designed to augment and complement the trend to home based fitness and recreation. RETHINK (West) Inc.

28. What’s happening in Alberta – Home Based % Household Participation RETHINK (West) Inc. Alberta Recreation Survey

29. Since 2007, Gaming bigger than music or movies … RETHINK (West) Inc. Arstechnica.com/gaming/news

30. Gaming – a balanced and aging market RETHINK (West) Inc. www.scribd.com/doc/16938922/Gaming-Trends

31. Gaming Trends • Broader Demographic • Virtual Worlds • Next Generation Social Gaming • Mobile Gaming • Physical Activity through gaming (Wii, Connect) • Gamification– gaming technology/insight to education, interactive movies/books, virtual tourism • Convergence– gaming, movies, TV, education, health • From Consumers to Contributors RETHINK (West) Inc.

32. What if digital age behaviour becomes leisure behaviour? Immediate Customized Digital Age Behaviour My network Flexible/ Spontaneous No fixed address Free Interactive/Participatory RETHINK (West) Inc.

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34. The Digital Age Leisure Paradigm Self-identified groups Program planned by pros – months in advance Doing what they want – their decision Strangers recruited Scheduled by pros – months in advance When they want - often last minute At a fixed location – often expensive in inexpensive spaces they find RETHINK (West) Inc.

35. Digital Age Behaviour - implications • get involved with social networking to learn what your stakeholders want and increase your visibility/findability • retain some facility flexibility to accommodate the immediate demands that digital consumers will create • connect with (potential) consumers to co-develop leisure opportunities – share the planning and program development responsibility • recruit and support the natural leadership that emerges as social networks focus and create opportunities • Recognize that consumers would prefer to share their leisure with their existing network than rely on you to gather/register a bunch of strangers RETHINK (West) Inc.

36. Key Question – Key Strategy Question Has your organization made significant strides towards understanding and working with digital age consumers? Are you learning the marketing and survival skills already displayed by leading retailers and service providers. NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES Strategy Start playing with digital tools. Create social spaces for your stakeholders and/or link to the spaces they are now sharing – listen, suggest, participate, work together. RETHINK (West) Inc.

37. Outcome/Results Focus • Virtually all funding in social service and health fields now tied to outcome delivery • Results-Based Budgeting brings this perspective to government services • Our field understands – The Benefits Approach • Urgent Need to go beyond theory and academic studies to field tactics that prove the impact of specific programs/services • We were ahead – may be falling behind RETHINK (West) Inc.

38. Shift to OUTCOMES/EVIDENCE FROM ‘service driven’ • goals/objectives • CEO evaluated on efficiency • annual reporting of activities, services and budget • popular program design • performance measurement based in inputs, outputs, satisfaction • plan, market, budget and hire for programs and services • ‘bottom line’ focus – least expensive way of doing business • somewhat isolationist/competitive TOWARDS ‘outcome driven’ • outcomes/ends • are outcomes delivered (and efficiency) • reporting on difference made by organization • evidence-based best practice • outcome/results based PM (as well as efficiency and satisfaction) • plan, market, budget and hire on ‘promise to deliver’ • open to possibility that best way to achieve outcome may require additional resources • alliances/partnerships (given similar outcomes) RETHINK (West) Inc.

39. Key Question – Key Strategy Question As funding becomes increasingly tied to results, has your organization developed the capacity to convincingly measure benefits/outcomes? NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES • Strategy • post evaluations ask about outcome achievement • field research collaboration • adopt ‘best practice’ programs (evidence of results already in place) • our associations develop the evaluative tools we need RETHINK (West) Inc.

40. About the Resource • familiarization tour • value of trend access on its own • Interest in becoming part of a team of TRENDWATCHERS • Interest in FORUMS to discuss implications, strategy, options, pilots • WHO ideally should host ongoing development RETHINK (West) Inc.

41. www.foresight-trendscan.blogspot.com RETHINK (West) Inc.