So far… Planning for Pandemic Influenza at UNC-Chapel Hill

1. So far…Planning for Pandemic Influenzaat UNC-Chapel Hill Peter A. Reinhardt, Director Dept. of Environment, Health & Safety

2. 29 September 2006 Preparations We’ve Made So Far • Pandemic Assumptions • Purchased stocks of respirators, surgical masks and gloves • Detailed planning for student housing and campus health services • Draft “Leave for Communicable Disease” policy

3. 29 September 2006 Chancellor’s Advisory Committee on Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Subcommittees: Closure/Suspension/Academic Continuity Human Resources Fiscal Issues/Business Continuity Communications International Emergency Committee Information Technology Research and Research Animals

5. 29 September 2006 Do we close?Or do we stay open and “weather the storm?” It depends. The severity of an influenza pandemic depends on the transmissibility, morbidity and mortality of the influenza. Influenza caused by the H5N1 strain has a high case fatality rate, but we cannot predict the severity of the next human pandemic. Will it look like 1918 or 1957?

6. 29 September 2006 Cloudy Crystal Ball

7. 29 September 2006 UNC-Chapel Hill Population 10,264 Full time employees (Fall 2005) 772 Part time employees (Fall 2005) 27,267 Students (Fall 2005) 7,400 Students in residence halls (2005-6) 1,000 Students and family members in family housing (2005-6)

8. 29 September 2006 CDC FluAid 2.0 Model Estimates Assuming 35% gross attack rate; student population split 50:50 among 0-18 and 19-64 yrs age groups; using 0.3% mortality rate (maximum) estimates. See http://www2.cdc.gov/od/fluaid/

9. 29 September 2006 Our Greatest Risk Our greatest risk is an easily transmissible virus + 7,400 students in residence halls living in close proximity and sharing facilities. Caring for a large number of ill students would strain resources of Housing and Residential Education, Campus Health Service and the UNC Healthcare System, especially if the community is similarly impacted and staff resources are similarly depleted.

10. 29 September 2006 Our Greatest Risk, contd. Therefore, if a severe pandemic were to occur in North Carolina, we should suspend on-campus classes for 7-10 weeks. We will want to make the class suspension decision early in the period of contagion to allow residential students to return to a less-risky home environment. (We hope to be able to resume the session after the wave has passed.)

11. 29 September 2006 Draft UNC-Chapel Hill Criteria for Suspending Classes • WHO Phase 6—Pandemic period: Increased and sustained transmission in the general U.S. population. • Confirmation of a high rate of transmissibility, morbidity and/or mortality. • Local public health recommendations to curtail/cancel public activities in North Carolina. • Immediately preceded by falling class attendance, students leaving campus. • Rising employee absenteeism.

12. 29 September 2006 While Classes Are Suspended 5,700 students and student families will likely remain in Chapel Hill because of international travel restrictions, other travel difficulties, or because they do not have a suitable alternative living option. • 700 students (e.g., international students) will remain in residence halls scattered in various locations (no longer living in close proximity). They will need support. • 1,000 people in family housing will be in close quarters and at relatively high risk. • 4,000 students will remain in off-campus housing, including fraternities and sororities.

13. 29 September 2006 While Classes Are Suspended Assuming 35% gross attack rate; student and family population split 50:50 among 0-18 and 19-64 yrs age groups; using 0.2% case fatality rate (most likely) estimates for employees. See http://www2.cdc.gov/od/fluaid/

14. 29 September 2006 Issues While Classes Are Suspended • Housing and Residential Education, and Campus Health Service need to care for remaining ill students and their families. • What activities can continue? • What activities should we postpone? • What essential functions will need to continue even when on-campus classes are suspended?

15. 29 September 2006 Examples of Essential Personnelthese staff must come to work while classes are suspended • Police and 911 Center staff • Housing and dining services staff • Utility workers (power, water and sewage) • IT and telecommunications staff • Payroll, accounting and purchasing staff • Campus Health Services • Employee Health Clinic • Facility repair workers

16. 29 September 2006 Employee Absenteeism “[Assume] that up to 40 percent of [staff] may be absent for periods of about 2 weeks at the height of a pandemic wave, with lower levels of staff absent for a few weeks on either side of the peak. Absenteeism will increase not only because of personal illness…but also because employees may be caring for ill family members, under voluntary home [isolation] due to an ill household member, minding children dismissed from school, following public health guidance, or simply staying at home out of safety concerns.” National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza: Implementation Plan, Homeland Security Council, May 2006

17. 29 September 2006 What We Still Plan to Do • Conduct a tabletop exercise • Complete our detailed response plan • Have all departments develop PI Continuity of Operations Plans • Finalize international travel policy • Finalize procedures and MOA with OCHD for an on-campus mass dispensing/vaccination

18. 29 September 2006 Questions? Peter A. Reinhardt, Director Department of Environment, Health & Safety University of North Carolina 1120 Estes Drive Extension., CB# 1650 Chapel Hill, NC 27599-1650 http://ehs.unc.edu pareinhardt@ehs.unc.edu 919-843-5913